The Deal

Originally posted by SDK1987
Nice high jackpot. Maybe PokerStars don't want that the jackpot will burst this year.
If that would happen the jackpot is maybe around a million

It is currently growing at about 2000 per day, so if isn't won in 2023 it will start next year at about a million.

However as the jackpot grows, interest grows, so I don't think it will get to 500k even.

Time will tell. This could be the highest jackpot of all time.

Originally posted by SDK1987
Time will tell. This could be the highest jackpot of all time.

since I started keeping track in 2017, this is only the 3rd time it has broken 400,000

The record was 456,000, but in those days (Dec 2018) there were 37,000 players approximately.
Now there are only about 150 playing, and that is assuming that everyone is playing only 7 coins each time. It is fewer players if some people are playing 70.
But it seems that it is picking up the pace a bit...

The record of all time is $574k.

https://pokerground.com/zuziek79-polski-trafia-jackpota-wygrywa-fortune-pokerstars/

That's nice to know, but my Polish isn't to good
Still a long way to get a higher jackpot.

Originally posted by SDK1987
That's nice to know, but my Polish isn't to good
Still a long way to get a higher jackpot.

If you have access to google translate, you can put the URL into it, and it will create a translated copy of the page.
Here is the URL to the translation:
https://pokerground-com.translate.goog/zuziek79-polski-trafia-jackpota-wygrywa-fortune-pokerstars/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

I'll check back later to see if that works.

Almost 55,000 players still enjoy the victory of the Pole, who took part in at least one round of The Deal in the 12 hours before he hit the jackpot. It was them who got the second part of the jackpot - $ 287,219 , which translated into a prize of $ 5.30 per "head".

The website article is from before I started playing. The $5.30 payout isn't the largest though.
There have been larger per-person payouts from smaller jackpots.

A spin just now for 409,200.18
Winner gets $1,000

Indeed. I expect it's more than $10 per person now.

Originally posted by SDK1987
Indeed. I expect it's more than $10 per person now.

I hope so.
Average increase is now around 2000 per day, and assuming 7 coins per play, and assuming all coins played are added to the jackpot then there are about 150 players.
If that guess is correct, the per-player around $1375.00
So I'm guessing that the guess isn't correct.

That's sounds crazy to win so much whe the jackpot hits.
I would expect $100 per player is already unlikely.

Lets assume that the deal increases by 2k$ daily.
2000$ = 200,000 starcoins
Now lets assume that on average player is losing 5 starcoins every time he plays the deal.
200,000/5 = 40,000 - thats approximate number of games played in deal daily.
We also know that you need to play twice per day so it means that our number of players illegible for sharing jackpot is around 20,000.

In case of jackpot:
-50% goes to winner
-50% is distributed among all players playing in last 12 hours
so we have 200k$ divided among 20000 people - 10$ for everyone, probably slightly more, but not 100, 200 or 1375$.

Originally posted by EmiyaKiritsugu
Lets assume that the deal increases by 2k$ daily.
2000$ = 200,000 starcoins
Now lets assume that on average player is losing 5 starcoins every time he plays the deal.
200,000/5 = 40,000 - thats approximate number of games played in deal daily.
We also know that you need to play twice per day so it means that our number of players illegible for sharing jackpot is around 20,000.

In case of jackpot:
-50% goes to winner
-50% is distributed among all players playing in last 12 hours
so we have 200k$ divided among 20000 people - 10$ for everyone, probably slightly more, but not 100, 200 or 1375$.

🤦 Oh man, you are quite correct. I feel ashamed — I used to teach math. 😭🤮

In the last 12 hours, the JP increased by $1,220 — and if the average buy-in is 5 coin (my average is 4.8, so 5 is a good number), that is 5 cents. and the nominal value of a coin is 1 cent
1220/0.05 = 24400
Using the current actual jackpot, and my current average, the payout would be $8.12

It depends on when during the day the JP drops.
When I play in the morning, the increase is close to half what is is at night — so the payout would be more. This morning for example, the increase was only 880, so about 17600 players. Since the jackpot this morning was 413,285 this would mean a payout of around 11 bucks

Interesting math discussion at least. We will see if the jackpot burst if it's representive calculation.

Originally posted by SDK1987
Interesting math discussion at least. We will see if the jackpot burst if it's representive calculation.

I am now tracking estimated payout after each time I play.

             Date       JP       Inc  Paid     Δt     pts  Plyrs  Share 
 2023-03-08 09:00  409,169    750.00     5  12:00  12,124  15602  13.11 
 2023-03-08 21:00  410,498  1,329.00     7  12:00  12,117  27647   7.42 
 2023-03-09 09:00  411,165    667.00     5  12:00  12,112  13875  14.82 
 2023-03-09 21:00  412,385  1,220.00     7  12:00  12,105  25380   8.12 
 2023-03-10 09:00  413,265    880.00     5  12:00  12,100  18307  11.29 
 2023-03-10 21:00  414,567  1,302.00     5  12:00  12,095  27086   7.65 

At least it keeps you busy calculating and making graphs outside poker.

Originally posted by SDK1987
At least it keeps you busy calculating and making graphs outside poker.

I do that with (almost) everything.
I was out last night, and didn't have my phone with me, and missed the 21:00 scheduled time.
I was an hour and a half late, but fortunately the jackpot was still intact.

That would be nasty if the jackpot would fall in the 1,5 hour you had missed.

Originally posted by SDK1987
That would be nasty if the jackpot would fall in the 1,5 hour you had missed.

It has happened before — but not just 1.5 hours, I think I missed by 5 or 6 hours.

Hopefully it not happen again.

I had thought that there would be a significant change in the number of players, but perhaps not