I'm going to cross my fingers and shove this river

Well played. Will play the same way as you. If turn over AA,KK it's a cooler.

If you are planning to get it in on the river I would most likely bet flop already around pot size.
Normally I would go for 3 streets of around half pot bets. Now you get only action of AK that you beat with over betting and I would expect KK+ and AK would continue betting on the flop in a multi way scenario.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Originally posted by SDK1987
If you are planning to get it in on the river I would most likely bet flop already around pot size.
Normally I would go for 3 streets of around half pot bets. Now you get only action of AK that you beat with over betting and I would expect KK+ and AK would continue betting on the flop in a multi way scenario.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I am not sure about that one.

If you must know.

Think it is fine- didn’t look at spoiler- as the result doesn’t matter much- I think the 1.2x pot jam on river is fine- you could over bet a little on turn, to make it a 1:1 ratio on river.. but you got it all in.

Originally posted by mkBISCUIT
Think it is fine- didn’t look at spoiler- as the result doesn’t matter much- I think the 1.2x pot jam on river is fine- you could over bet a little on turn, to make it a 1:1 ratio on river.. but you got it all in.

That's why it's called a spoiler. It spoils things.

Originally posted by NapoleonBonaparte135
Well played. Will play the same way as you. If turn over AA,KK it's a cooler.

Thank you.

Originally posted by mkBISCUIT
Think it is fine- didn’t look at spoiler- as the result doesn’t matter much- I think the 1.2x pot jam on river is fine- you could over bet a little on turn, to make it a 1:1 ratio on river.. but you got it all in.

Yeah, instinctively I think we want to overbet turn as we are not betting hands like AT there on turn.

Originally posted by EmiyaKiritsugu

Originally posted by mkBISCUIT
Think it is fine- didn’t look at spoiler- as the result doesn’t matter much- I think the 1.2x pot jam on river is fine- you could over bet a little on turn, to make it a 1:1 ratio on river.. but you got it all in.

Yeah, instinctively I think we want to overbet turn as we are not betting hands like AT there on turn.

I guess turn over bet is alright. I like to start out kind of small though.

Originally posted by Dr1fter808
The villain is a reg.

V could have AA/KK or AK.

What would you do?

Thoughts?

An opponent could have 45 as well, but it isn't likely.
AA or KK also seem unlikely from the betting pattern.
That is only 6 combinations.
AK represents another 9 combinations — buy they're more likely, and favourable for your holding.

So shove with confidence OTR

So maybe one of the math people can tell us what portion of the time you have to win to be ahead long-term.
At NL 25 it don't see many people slow playing top set or second set — especially after an opponent bets.

OK I'll look at the results now...
Yay!

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
So maybe one of the math people can tell us what portion of the time you have to win to be ahead long-term.
At NL 25 it don't see many people slow playing top set or second set — especially after an opponent bets.

I suck at this, but I'll try.

You are betting 91.12 into a pot containing 72.48
Let's be easy on ourselves and say 90 into a pot of 70
If opponent folds, you win 70
if opponent calls, you win the 70 plus opponent's 90
If you lose, you lose the 90.
Ignoring the folds, if you win, you win 160, if you lose you lose 90
If you win 36 times out of 100, you win 5760, and if you lose the rest of the time you lose 5760, so you only need to win 36% of the time to break even — and that's assuming opponent never folds.

So good shove.

Equilab has your equity OTT like so:
Board: A♣K♠8♦ 3♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    44.55%  44.55%   0.00% { KK+, AKs, AKo }
BU     55.45%  55.45%   0.00% { 8h8c }

At NL 25 it don't see many people slow playing top set or second set — especially after an opponent bets.

From what I've seen if a board is in any way coordinated a set gets fast played, especially if its multi way. This board is almost perfect for AA/KK to slow play. In V shoes I would have liked to have KK.

I will fold pre vs 3x , if this is the only info (he is a reg), 99 I will call or 3bet, call as default. Call is possible with info for the blinds, or 3bet with some info for the reg.

OTF I prefer small bet, 35%..

OTT , again, small bet. Probably he sees you as reg, at least as "TAG"..

OTR..and "again", small bet...As reg, he almost for sure will fold with one pair. You can't be sure for A8s, A3s, A2s..Ok, maybe A8s...But this also can be a fold. Very likely...You must think about AA, KK and AK...But the problem is AK also can be a fold. You can't be sure about this hand ..Very borderline shove OTR...I don't like it...

i saw the results now...Ok, cool..But if he is a thinking player, also if he is not "blind", it's still a borderline shove (no value)...Or worse..Probably he is thinking "What this reg have?"...Well, what do you have? You are screaming "EIGHTS"..No offense...But he is deaf..Fortunately...

Well, I guess I am looking like an idiot, with all this different opinions.. And the results obv...But think about this...Which other hand you have? A bluff? Really? You can think and you can see. But also the other regs as well. This is NL25, not NL2...

Also this pot size bet..The pot size bet have almost the same FE as the over bet. It's fine in spot, where you have bluffs and you want to have "some" balance. Or in spot, where you have bluffs only ..Obviously..But it's not good for value. Don't use it for this. Imo...This spot, with this line is perfect for bluff. Let's say with JTs...I mean vs NL25 reg...Don't play like that for value, if you don't have hand like JTs here. I mean imo..