PLO50 AJ96ds 3bet pot, flop decision

think the hand is too weak to shove and you will be dominated too often by a tight sb potting range.
think calling could be considered with bdfd, it is still like a mix, and a call would be slightly -ev, but with the possibility to maybe take down more pots versus checks then in gto, it might be okay.
shoving should be with at least one pair from the board like AJ93. i would say

It's an ugly spot. I would float here only if i had very good reads on opponent(meaning he's gonna give up tons of turns or is complete.. recreational player).You are 20% against AA overpair, 25% vs KKds. He will often be paired up with T and sizing indicates he's not giving up. You are ahead only some KQJ9 not hearts. This is kinda spot where I would be pushing it wrongly when im playing not-so well. Now that I get to assess the situation from off-table, it doesnt look very well for us.

Originally posted by BradNitt
think the hand is too weak to shove and you will be dominated too often by a tight sb potting range.
think calling could be considered with bdfd, it is still like a mix, and a call would be slightly -ev, but with the possibility to maybe take down more pots versus checks then in gto, it might be okay.
shoving should be with at least one pair from the board like AJ93. i would say

Nuttiness (less domination issues) is a reason to call instead of raising rather than the other way around at those SPR´s because of visibility. If villain has a c-betting range either polarized or wider than overpair+flushdraw+ it is an easy shove.

not really know what you are referring too.
if we would know villain is a noob and maybe overcbet pot all his mediocre stuff, it might be ok.
in plo trainer its a fold against a potsize cbet range, consisting of more then op+fd. and i think same would fit here, if we just have the info that villain might be pretty tight, as he doesnt seem to have made some out of line stuff worth to mention.

I was refering to the hand posted, obv. Yea AJ96 non-nutted suit in particular is a fold in GTO because you block the Ace and lower wraps with the 6♣ which hurts us alot against a solid 3-bet range that is still AA-heavy. But that does not mean we should fold flushdraw plus gutshot in general.

From handstrength perspective is totally fine to shove a hand like this otherwise you´d rather fold preflop (especially you think villain is potting a balanced range and can bet-fold/stack off with a protected range like solver). I guess the EV is marginal anyways but calling the 3bet to fold this flop is probably lowest EV-line imo. You need some rules of thumb ingame what to do with certain hand-categories to be not completely out of line frequency-wise. You cannot call a 3bet like this just to hope to out-set villain or hit a straight with our multi-top-gapper. We do not hit that often enough with such a weak structure. For this reason I think folding this hand preflop is best anyways.

Basically we do not fold or call a Gutshot plus Flushdraw without SDV at SPR 4. The specific hand posted is a frequentional exception where we see some rank-weighted mixing going on.

agreed that the hand is quite marginal defend vs 3bets, being so gapped.

about the stack off, i think you still apply a broader concept, which is in itself not wrong of course. but also not just fits everywhere and always.
our type of hand strength, gutter and medium fd, is actually not a mix and just a pure fold. and i think it shouldnt be too tough to make that differentiations, to become more correct. if you shove too much, or fold too much, puts your freqs out of line as well and in this case it hurts the ev more to shove.

here i filtered for our exact type of hand bucket, imo. low fd.
i think in your filter you still have one pair hits in there for example. which would be fine shoves of course, as mentioned in first post too.

thats some kind of first look. think can see the shoves want also an oesd. at least.

now filtered out the 98s. now we see our remaining gutters wants some bdfd.

now filtered out the bdfds and there we are again. pure fold. (or no shoves, to be correct^^) just some hands with more decent options to improve want to call here.

The first screen you posted is not very meaningful as we do not seperate flushdraw and gutshots, we do have both components which makes the hand stronger overall. It would be different if we have solely one flushdraw or just the straightdraw, I am aware of that.

In this hand villain has a J-high (broadway) flushdraw which is a call or raise in your screens. From what I can see, your software is just folding baby flushes that have nothing else going on but not the type of hand that was posted. Looks like solver is mixing by calling some of the high-flushdraw plus gutshot combodraws but I see no benefits by not just shoving since we do not need to balance that. If our flushdraw is on the mediocre end it just puts us in awkward spots against very nutted potting ranges bringing us back to my initial statement:

Nuttiness (less domination issues) is a reason to call instead of raising rather than the other way around at those SPR´s because of visibility.

Ofc that does not mean we start calling any nutflushdraw since solver shoves all of em aswell, it just gives an exploitative alternative to put some of the nutflushdraw plus made hand as slowplays into our calling range and shove sufficient smooth equity. It does not make a lot of sense to debate about if the specific J-flushdraw plus gutshot, which seems to be marginal as we agreed, is good enough to shove over a range we just do not know.

For this my reasoning is, if we do not know our flop line to avoid just playing a losing fit-fold it is better to fold preflop right away as we have no solid plan how to play the vast majority of flops where we pick up equity. It´s very likely that your call-vs-3bet frequencies are way too high anyways if you call this hand against a tighter-than-GTO 3bet range. Playouts of single hands should be considered in the broader framework of strategies that involve ranges which furthermore demand rough plans how to proceed with certain hand categories on future streets.

no

the category flushdraws means we just have no pairs, but gutshots, wraps, oesd are in there as well. as you could see in the other pictures coming from that bucket.

your filter is way too wide and not applicable for that situation to come up with the result of an easy shove.
as said, you have all pairs in there, just no sets and two pairs. and you have Ax, Kx flushes in there as well. or just ask yourself, why it is showing A♥:A♠:, if both wont fit to our spot?
thats your filter, 80% shove here too

now filtered out the pairs and Ax, Kx fds and we get down to 15% with some bdfds, and can see already if we take them out we have no shoves again.

the category flushdraws means we just have no pairs, but gutshots, wraps, oesd are in there as well. as you could see in the other pictures coming from that bucket.

On my screen what I can see from your screenshot in the fold-category you have the first hand which is 6♣:5♣:4♠:3♠: ... a hand that has no gutshot, wrap or oesd just like the rest of its column below, whereas I´ve put in only to have J9-combos with SDV stronger than 2pair and wraps excluded from that range, I guess you are the one with the wide "non-applicable" filter.

The 80% frequency goes down if you deduct overpairs like the A♥:A♠:, I already mentioned that is it marginal with some of the J9 being folds other being raises. AJ96 explicitely is a fold I agree, but good luck executing that strategy in a manner having memorized this single combo in a spot where we are supposed to have over 30.000 combinations. I never refered to that frequency as a recommending guideline but lined out the approach with the hand-strength category in concern and second it does not change the action that should be performed by the nut-gs+ high-nn fd no pair+ portion of our range.

second it does not change the action that should be performed by the nut-gs+ high-nn fd no pair+ portion of our range.

@your argument, that my filter is too wide

I am a bit lost. Are you talking about folding/shoving this spot in solver world, or in PLO50 world?

There is something wrong with your software then if it shows 6♣:5♣:4♠:3♠: despite you´ve put GS´s into your range.

ask yourself why then nothing is showing up in the allin column, if the filter is too wide.

Not necessary, I am happy with PLO-Vision.

I am a bit lost. Are you talking about folding/shoving this spot in solver world, or in PLO50 world?

I am taking into account we are sufficient with a simple and adequate strategy for basically gs+nn-fd at PLO50, which for me this is still basic flop strategy learning territory. I also took solvers strategy into account to show that it is not mandatory to fold that hand as a default. Since you have to look for patterns first you have gray area anyways in most situations.

For me it is more helpful to recognize the handtype we have, evaluate the strategy with similar handstrength buckets and execute a rough but applicable strategy rather than assigning all kind of single hand-combos to a non-applicable GTO-gameplan that would not be max-EV either.

Originally posted by Kyyberi
I am a bit lost. Are you talking about folding/shoving this spot in solver world, or in PLO50 world?

basicly in both
you have an opinion about that?

from my view, mascherano is mixing too much stuff in his potential shoving range. like no one would question, that, for example, if we have a flopped pair as well to strengthen our overall equity, that this would be a shove. -> rough handclass: gutter + pair+ weak fd.
or if we would have a stronger fd.-> strong fd and a gutter.
but we just have close to the worst fd combos (J♥:9♥:T♥:7♥: is blocked) out there in that scenario, against a unknown/ probably tight sb 3b range, and a gutter.
in gto that type of hands, not only our exact holding, would be a fold. and on plo 50, where the tight types of the opponents most likely have a even stronger potting range then in gto, i say its a fold too.

Originally posted by BradNitt

Originally posted by Kyyberi
I am a bit lost. Are you talking about folding/shoving this spot in solver world, or in PLO50 world?

basicly in both
you have an opinion about that?

from my view, mascherano is mixing too much stuff in his potential shoving range. like no one would question, that, for example, if we have a flopped pair as well to strengthen our overall equity, that this would be a shove. -> rough handclass: gutter + pair+ weak fd.
or if we would have a stronger fd.-> strong fd and a gutter.
but we just have close to the worst fd combos (J♥:9♥:T♥:7♥: is blocked) out there in that scenario, against a unknown/ probably tight sb 3b range, and a gutter.
in gto that type of hands, not only our exact holding, would be a fold. and on plo 50, where the tight types of the opponents most likely have a even stronger potting range then in gto, i say its a fold too.

I already said am fine too with folding this specific combo otf. But I would strongly advocate for folding preflop in a non-GTO environment because of the tighter 3-bet range.

How often you guys have seen pot-fold in 3bet pots in normal SPR 4 situations?

It does happen, but my memories are that when opponent pots the flop hu he quite often calls the raise.

I think preflop is quite close vs tighter 3bet ranges, but still it's double suited... I think folding preflop, folding flop and raising flop are all quite close to breakeven anyway.

I agree that it should be pretty close in EV. But I think, if we decide to call this pre but fold this kind of flop, there is somewhere a misconception of ranges and abort of continuity in play going on in the context of a broader strategy. In case villain is unknown or having a mixed strategy with low (imba high value ?) pot-frequency.

If opponent had bet half a pot on the flop, I think shove would be a lot more easier.

Thing is, no matter what our hand is we will sometimes flop mediocre hit. The key is to have a preflop range, that turns the odds to our favor in domination game. This hand has nut and J high flush draws, but the other cards a disconnected and low. Also, having A versus AAxx heavy range creates just problems on A high flops.

Originally posted by Kyyberi
If opponent had bet half a pot on the flop, I think shove would be a lot more easier.

Yeah we´d have more FE making it less marginal.