Hello, I have another hand I would like to share from my live experiences.
Local casino , 110$ buy in, 10$ the rake, 30$ goes to the mystery bounty that day.
We are 4 left and in the money. 4th takes 385, 3rd, 580, 2nd 880 and 1st 1450.
That's the main idea more or less, not the digit-precise numbers.
Blinds are 30k/60k with a 60k ante posted by the BB.
I am sitting on the BB and have ~580k after posting.
The SB next to me is the chip leader (maybe 40 big blinds), a good reg who applies amounts of pressure. I had seen him put people all-in with not great hands, people calling him and he had busted out a few already.
The other 2 players had less chips than me, but not by a lot. Maybe around 400k-450k. I believe I had an edge on them. Those 2 players fold and the SB puts me all in.
I see A5 and I'm certain that I am ahead of his range the majority of the time and I thought I could be ahead even as much as 60% of what he is pushing. Most probable was that he had two cars between an A and a 5. I decided to make a stand and call, I was right, showing me J7o, he hits a straight and we lose.
When I insert the stats in pokerstove and put A5o against his range as loose as to include J7o (50% of hands), I see that A5o is actually a coinflip. If I increase his range to 70%, which I was thinking he could be pushing with, it just goes up to 54%-46%. I guess I was lucky he just had J7, which is 59/41?
He also got a bounty of 300$ from busting me :))
What do you think of my call? Should I have just folded it and waited for a better chance, or for me to be the aggressor? If I had won that hand I would have been in a really good shape to go for the prize and bust out the lesser stacks to get me a big bounty, since the smaller bounties had already been distributed.
Overall it was a fun tournament, thanks in advance.
