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Chip Up & Ship It (GGPoker, Spins recreational regular diary)

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savage1981
Joined: 31.05.2010

Originally posted by Kostja007
I was wondering how do you calculate your chip ev roi as you sometimes start with 500 chips and sometimes with 300. What chipev do you need to be at least breakeven on 1$ blasts? 9% Rake

How to calculate?

I think you multiply your starting stack by the rake, e.g., 500*9%=45 chips per tournament


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Studentishe
Joined: 29.10.2009

Yes, this is one of the methods, that my coach suggested.
To have 2 different chipEVs for 300 and 500 games and calculate breakeven points for them separately, and treat them separately.
I still have questions about what this "break-even" point means. Following this aproach as 500 chips games are 5x+ multipliers, your "break-even" point should be much lower (even with negative chipEV) as you get a lot of money when you win. And in 2x-3x multipliers you should win more to break even, following this logic.

There is a problem with PT4 labeling games strangely, so to separate 300 from 500 chips games - I do it manually after each session, marking all games as Ultra-turbo and then using filters to find the one's that we have dealt 24+bb effective stacks 3-handed and marking them Turbo.

In reality, I have next chipEVs for 100s
300c games: 16
500c games: 83

Spoiler



So the logical conclusion here is that I'm losing in fast games and compensating it in slow games, that makes sense as it gives more opportunity to realize your equity.

Before this suggestion, I used "weighted average". I got probabilities of 300c and 500c games, calculated what would be an average starting stack in games (318 chips for 100s limit) and used it in the formula that @dev209 shared.

I asked this question earlier in my blog marking it as "a million-dollar question - how do you calculate roiEV in 888poker Blasts?" but didn't get an answer)). Maybe we can come up with a good method now.


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MoneyInTrust
Joined: 28.01.2009

"There are no leaderboards currently available for you.
Please check again later."

Do you get the same message? I am worried they banned German players to participate in the leaderboards due to regulations. :f_mad::f_mad::f_mad:


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smartchecker
Joined: 25.07.2007

Yep, I am German and leaderboards are gone for me as well! Also the free Spins are gone! What about all the other promotions? The up to 50% rakeback, early Bird promos? I dont get pop ups for them as well. So are they all cancelled for Germans?!


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Studentishe
Joined: 29.10.2009

Seems like 90%+ rakeback is over, folks

I was expecting it to come, just hoped that it won’t be so soon.

Now it is time to explore GGPoker, though there is additional 3% rake for Germans, there are deals like spin&gold, fish buffet and weekly leaderboards. It won’t be even close with what 888Poker had, but at least it worth trying…

Another option is to stay on 888Poker and play for winrate only, what are your thoughts?


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smartchecker
Joined: 25.07.2007

I asked their support about the situation and here is the answer (I auto translated it):

Hello ...,

unfortunately we had to pause all our bonus programs. However, this is only a temporary measure. We are working at full speed to be able to offer you offers and promotions again in a short time. Please check your settings so that you can then receive our updates and promotions promptly by email.

With kind regards

Andrei D.
Member Support
www.888.de

So according to them it is only a "temporary measure". I dont really believe that to be honest.

I am in the same situation as you right now - Studentishe - I am a former Spin and Go Reg and I registered at 888 Poker 2 days ago, and now this!

I would like to keep in touch with you to see what we can do now. GG Poker is still a big mystery to me and I can also not tell how profitable the Spins there can be for Germans. Their whole Rakeback system is just too complicated to simulate and the 3% taxes on top of that.
I am hesitant to try the Spins on GG cause I dont want to burn my money in case it is not really beatable for us Germans. I am also just shocked at the moment


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Studentishe
Joined: 29.10.2009

Originally posted by smartchecker
I asked their support about the situation and here is the answer (I auto translated it):
...

Well done, thanks for sharing - you put some hope in me! :f_thumbsup::f_thumbsup::f_thumbsup:

Originally posted by smartchecker
I am in the same situation as you right now - Studentishe - I am a former Spin and Go Reg and I registered at 888 Poker 2 days ago, and now this!

I would like to keep in touch with you to see what we can do now. GG Poker is still a big mystery to me and I can also not tell how profitable the Spins there can be for Germans. t

Great to see brothers in arms! Definitely let's keep in touch.
I was thinking about exploring options for quite some time now as being dependent on one-room promotion is not a great situation to be.

Do you know anything about playing in unlicensed poker rooms like JackPoker? I believe it would be next-level inconveniences in depositing/withdrawing in crypto, but my main question - is it legal for players to play there?


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Kostja007
Joined: 02.01.2020

For breakeven you need a roi of 3,4% before rakeback. So you will get most of the the money from rakeback + leaderboards.


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smartchecker
Joined: 25.07.2007

Now I cant even play anymore and get a message that says:

There seems to be a technical issue with the regulatory system operating in Germany.
Please try again later.


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Studentishe
Joined: 29.10.2009

Originally posted by Kostja007
For breakeven you need a roi of 3,4% before rakeback. So you will get most of the the money from rakeback + leaderboards.

Didn’t quite get your calculations. If you have 3,4% roi before rakeback you are profitable for 3,4% - how could that be a breakeven point?

The discussion above was about chipEv needed for roiEv to be 0% - so to be breakeven


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Studentishe
Joined: 29.10.2009

Originally posted by smartchecker
Now I cant even play anymore and get a message that says:

There seems to be a technical issue with the regulatory system operating in Germany.
Please try again later.

This escalated quickly. Glad that I have a busy week at work and can’t play anyways. )) let’s hope they figure it out quickly.

Though, by logic - I don’t know how they can offer this sort of leaderboards for us. Per German regulations, 888Poker needs to pay government 5.3% in taxes from turnaround, therefore from each BLAST registration. They take 6.1% in rake on 100 limit, keeping the difference of 0.8% for themselves to sponsor leaderboards?

This doesn’t make sense to me, doesn’t seems sustainable and profitable.


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TheGrindChronicles
Joined: 29.06.2023

Hi Studentishe. Noticed you a few months back in the GG leaderboard.
Just started reading your blog. Very well put together and entertaining for sure. Also, the variance you experienced in the $100 Buyin-range - quite relateable.
Have only ready the first page of your blog so far, will continue the next few days.

Keep krushing!


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tristann
Joined: 10.02.2023

Seems like 90%+ rakeback is over, folks

what the hell. You guys had 90+ rakeback? O_o how is that possible. i am shocked. So what rb do u have now after that changes?
Jesus, i am kinda happy i have my 20% playing stars :f_rolleyes: :f_biggrin:


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Studentishe
Joined: 29.10.2009

Originally posted by tristann
what the hell. You guys had 90+ rakeback? O_o how is that possible. i am shocked. So what rb do u have now after that changes?
Jesus, i am kinda happy i have my 20% playing stars :f_rolleyes: :f_biggrin:

It's not a fixed RB, it's what I could achieve through Leaderboards in the last month. Daily leaderboards on 888Poker can (could) give you 100%+ RB, the matter of strategy, win rate a bit of luck. Last month I payed 4,2K in rake and got 3,8 in Leaderboards prizes = 90% RB


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Studentishe
Joined: 29.10.2009

Originally posted by TheGrindChronicles
Hi Studentishe. Noticed you a few months back in the GG leaderboard.
Just started reading your blog. Very well put together and entertaining for sure. Also, the variance you experienced in the $100 Buyin-range - quite relateable.
Have only ready the first page of your blog so far, will continue the next few days.

Gladly it was only 5$ spins, so my losses were in hundreds, not thousands...
Keep krushing!

What is your GGPoker nickname? Did we battled for the 2nd place that week? My experience was bad with leaderboards, I started to play 4 tables because of them when I wasn't ready, my chipEV took a nose dive and I lost much more, than I got from the leaderboards. And... that was time I didn't know about 3% additional rake that they put in small font when every game started :facepalm:


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Studentishe
Joined: 29.10.2009

.

The idea is good for us, players, but it was very generous for poker room to do it. The closest to this rake back level that I know of - is from PartyPoker (not for Germans, though). They have a diamond club, that you sign-up explicitly and commit to generate 200K of rake in the next 12 months, you get a bonuses along the way and your rake back level raises as you progress that eventually ends-up being 60%. With rake races one can achieve ~95% rake back, but you need to generate shit tone of rake for this. I can see how this can be profitable both ways, grinders generate a lot of traffic and bring close to no profits to the room, recreational players bring a lot of profit to the room and they have always people to play against.

But in 888Poker Leaderboards - you get crazy rake back, though not fixed, with no commitment at all. I would love to see their side calculations of Daily Leaderboards math


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Kostja007
Joined: 02.01.2020

Originally posted by Studentishe

Originally posted by Kostja007
For breakeven you need a roi of 3,4% before rakeback. So you will get most of the the money from rakeback + leaderboards.

Didn’t quite get your calculations. If you have 3,4% roi before rakeback you are profitable for 3,4% - how could that be a breakeven point?

The discussion above was about chipEv needed for roiEv to be 0% - so to be breakeven

I meant from germany you pay tax of 3,2% on every winning. Imagine you play 1000 spins (1$) and imagine your roi is actually 5% (excluding tax). So your winnings after 1000 games will be 1050 (5% roi excluding tax). To calculate the tax you need to multiply your winnigs by tax. Means 1050 * 0,032 = 33,6. Your winnings after tax will be 1050 - 33,6 = 1014,4. So your actually roi after tax is 1,44% and not 5%. You pay more than 50% tax of your winnings. Low ROI = High percentage tax.

Imagine you are playing MTTs with a roi of 50%. Same number of games and stakes. Your winnings will be 1500. Tax => 1500 * 0,032 = 48
So on your winnings you only pay about 10% tax.

Did you get what I meant?


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Studentishe
Joined: 29.10.2009

Originally posted by Kostja007
Did you get what I meant?

I think I got it - you referred to GGPoker's additional tax. Yeah, that is hard to calculate - what is an actual rake, as it is dynamic and depends on your buy-in and winnings, as well as what is a rakeback. They have this FishBuffet thing, that is not actually a rakeback, but a cashback and depends on their internal "index" for each player. GGPoker is a tough cookie to crack when it comes to roiEV...


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Studentishe
Joined: 29.10.2009

Interestingly, 888Poker still have Leaderboards listed on their promotion page in German:

Hope they will manage to get Leaderboards back soon


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Studentishe
Joined: 29.10.2009

Upon login I'm getting this message:

Translation:
"Unfortunately, we are temporarily unable to offer you any bonus promotions. But don't worry, this is only temporary, so you'll be able to enjoy all our offers and promotions again soon."

While they are working on getting promotions back I'm more keen to explore other sites (GGPoker) and see if that 3% additional rake is beatable. I'm cashing out from 888Poker some part of the BR to deposit it on GGPoker. As Germans have 1K deposit limit it is hard to move BR there and back between the rooms, so I need to keep some healthy amount on 888 in case they will bring Leaderboards back.


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