I have played quite a lot of action on Unibet and i could say the same with thoughts that Unibet have some kind soft play or super user etc... But when i see how they play, cant really decided what is really going on... Unibet is only site where i thinking that players who are playing there that they have some kind off Autism or they play on CrackCocaine or Meth.
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Playing like that is not the problem. Winning those hands every now and then is not the problem. But when someone plays like that, and seems to have to miracle runouts constantly, the odds become so small for it that it makes it suspicious.
Couple hands from today's session:
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I bet flop, he calls. I bet turn, he calls. I bet half a pot on the river, he tanks and calls. Turn and river bets are with reads. As you can see from his hand, his range is a bit wider on every street. The river call is still one of the most optimistic calls I have seen in a while for third barrell. I mean, my blocker bluffs beat him too.
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Here I raise turn and get two calls. River pairs and flushes the board, and I always say in my mind "the worst card in the deck". River went checked, and I was quite surprised to win it. When I looked their hands, I was even more surprised. I mean, they both called my raise and QQ guy cold called it with 0 outs.
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I often complain about seemingly good rivers that serve a cooler. Here opponent probably thought that the river was the gin card, as he bet flop, bet turn and went to timebank until shoved river. Tricky tricky, I was a gentleman and snapcalled river.
Why is it so often, that one player in the pool becomes the ultimate nemesis of the session? Happened once again today. Finnish player with 75/50/15 stats, donking flops 30%. Wasn't just me he crushed, he was sitting with multiple buyins in all tables. Session of his life.
What happened was setups or miracle runouts for him on constant basis. Session started with HU versus him, and in first hands he delivered set vs set and set vs top2 twice in a row in 3bet pot. And his 3bet hands were far from solid ranges. As he is aggro and barrell heavy, correct strategy was to give him room to do that. Too bad I clashed 3 times trips vs trips with him, and every time he either had better kicker or made the boat on turn or river. Got trips vs trips once too in 3bet pot, 200bb deep. My second time with flopped trips in 3bet pot 200bb deep was when he had 6642 on 884 flop, I called flop and raised turn. Too bad the turn was 6 and I had just trips. Also he made couple runner runner nuts, when I had runner runner 2nd nuts.
Then another aggro joined couple of tables. He also crushed me, by making insanely good runouts for his crappy hands. And he delivered once set vs set, turned to quads with 1 out on the river.
Despite all that, session was profitable.
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He bet small on the flop, and small on the turn. I lead river, he raises, I re-raise and he shoves. First I was thinking that he overplayed his nut flush horribly, but it might also be that he didn't understand that the flop paired. That has happened me too, especially when it's runner runner pair. I have been few times in situation where I raise nut flush, and when opponent shoves I am "WTF?" and see that the board has paired.
Got the ultimate gambler maniac on table today. Literally pot anything preflop, and pot-shove flop with any cards, any flop. He got up to 800bb, and then came crashing down. Too bad I lost 3 buyins as none of my hands connected well enough on boards. Session was down a lot, but in the end just -1 buyin total.
This was a bit weird hand:
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We started 200bb deep with BTN, I just called 3bet and CO called too. Flop was decent, quads. Great for BTN to bet too, of course I checked. Flop went checked, turn went checked and river was K. Now I have to bet, and I thought that if someone has KK maybe they go bananas.
He actually did pot raise me, and I was sure he had KK. He had about 80bb behind, so I raised and he snap called.
First I thought that oh boy did he overplay KK there. But my value shove range should be AA, AK on the river. If he thinks that I wouldn't shove A7, he might think that he blocks AK and as I just called pre AA is very unlikely. As the whole hand went checked, he could level himself to think that I am putting him on a bluff as he checked flop and turn IP. So his raise probably targets my Axxx hands, and once I shove he just can't hero fold it.
Or he just fell in love for the river and didn't think it that much.
If I were him, I would just call the river for sure.
I think key point for our hand is how much we think it's possible to get from Kx!KK on river. I would probably go for half pot and assume KK will often raise versus that sizing. Raise-fold seems quite reasonable in BU shoes versus smaller bet but versus pot just call would be standard.
3bet range to have any bluffs on river from hero requires either total maniac or some high stake crusher reg. In reality it's basically always nuts only I would say.
I thought about the sizing. But as the hand played, I thought that in that pool Kxxx calls one bet on the river very often. So I chose a bigger sizing. Players in the pool are not very "size aware" for bets.
Sick table today. There was one total maniac, pretty much raising or re-raising everything preflop, and stacking off on flop if he had any hit or draw. Two other players were also aggros. SB has been somewhat solidish reg earlier, but on this table he was 3betting junk and was most likely tilted. I had won all-in on previous hand versus BTN (who was the maniac) and we were 125-170bb deep.
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I get crappy aces and open them. In this kind of super aggro table I would prefer to just limp. Facing a 3bet and cold call, if I 4bet it might end up in huge 4way preflop all-in. We would have 30-35% versus their ranges, but the problem is if they just call. Pot would be 240bb and we would have around 65-110 bb's behind. If it's not all-in pre, opponents EV's go up and our goes down. So in the end, it would be +EV to just pot it pre, but HUGE variance for something like 10-15bb EV.
I just call, and BTN calls too, we see flop 4way.
Flop is sort of "meh..." and cold called pots. His range (as all of their flop shove ranges) is any board pair, any draw. Probably weighted a bit towards stronger hands like Kxxx, 2 pairs and higher fd or fd+something. I think my only option is to shove, which I do. SB (3bettor pre) calls and third player calls too. Nice 470bb pot.
I have to worst equity, 23%. Fd guy has 34% and 2pair has 43%.
Turn shifts equities and gives me 75%. River is a good one, and my hand holds up.
Maniac filled session. This is how it started:
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This is how it ended:
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Long story:
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As I opened tables, there was one that was 3 handed. One opponent was typical 100/100/100 potpotpot guy, the other had at least a little thought but stats were something like 90/65/40. Session started with fireworks, and I either lost a flip or opponent had perfect flop/turn for their crappy hand versus my good'ish hit with good hand. On the other tables every 3bet or 4bet hand missed the flop and it was multiway. I bled money away, and calling stations just kept pwning me with runouts. Was down quite a bit.
But patience paid off, once again. Got few big pots, like TT on T44 flop, and 3way allin against T4 and nfd. Also started to hit and hold versus call happy players, and cherry on the top was couple of big bluff catches versus known aggros. Suddenly I got up from the hole and few buyins profit in the end.
For me it's damn hard to be patient when things go south. I know that in the end it will turn at some point, but the feeling of "go on, get it back NOW!" is quite strong. I am quite happy with myself that today I resisted that urge to be more aggressive (in order to try to win it back). It has been my nemesis for my whole poker life, and I think it will be for the rest of it too. But I have learned to live with it better and better.
It's time for Super Bowl. So far I have made profit on every year with sports betting. This year, after the conference finals (2 weeks ago) when it was set that Chiefs face 49ers on Bowl, the market held 49ers as small favorite. I placed some bets for Chiefs, as I was quite sure that the markets would switch. No matter how I viewed the situation, I couldn't figure out how 49ers was the favorite. Too bad the markets changed to wrong direction and Chiefs odds went up even more.
This is classical situation: if we look at the regular season, 49ers was really strong and Chiefs struggled quite a lot. But in the playoffs 49ers played two games where they were both really bad and then really good. And every time a team has HUGE swings inside the game, it's not a good sign. Chiefs hasn't been perfect, but they look a lot better during the playoffs. Also, Chiefs QB is Mahomes, who seems to just elevate himself the bigger the game is. 49ers QB is Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant. That nickname is given to the very last player of the draft. Also in the playoffs, stats are giving false impression on Purdy. He has made a lot more bad decisions with the ball than the stats show. In poker terms, he has run very well. With normal run, he would have thrown at least 4 interceptions more and 49ers would not be in Super Bowl.
There are also some interesting players bets, I will talk about them later. Tomorrow I will pack my car and head to the cabin, where I am alone (with our dogs) for 5 days. I will make the bets and talk a bit about them at friday/saturday. Disclaimer is that the "tips" are just my opinions, that I try to reason as good as I can. But make your own mind, if you place bets.
Also, if you have any questions about Super Bowl, bets or american football in general, feel free to ask! 
This is like a broken record: I played with absolute maniacs and lost. Just -6buyins, but still... I managed to get deep stacks in versus one maniac multiple times, and always he had hit his crap (like 4betting K842r, stacking off on KQ5ss flop) and he won the flip. Or once I flopped set versus his naked top pair and 200bb stacks went in, he made runner runner bigger fullhouse. And the cherry on the top was when I open AA, he 3bets, I 4bet, he 5bets and I 6bet AA and flop is AKQ. I shove, he had KQJTr. 750bb pot. Ouch.
Here was the hero call of the day:
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I open pre, CO calls and flop goes checked. On the turn I check, he bets small and I call. River I donk big, and he calls with JJ. Not sure what he thought I have, but that looks quite optimistic imo.
Damn, went to shop to get some drinks and food for cabin trip. 300 euros, and I didn't even buy anything super expensive. Biggest single item was tenderloin for 20 euros. Bankroll challenge was for this trip, goal was +400 euros which seems quite accurate. At the moment it's about +200, but there are Super Bowl bets coming and couple of days for grinding.
Yesterday I built my setup for laptop and all the gadgets, tested the sauna and fireplace, and tried to warm the cabin as it was -28 in celsius. This morning it was -29,5 which is somewhat cold. My car barely started, even though I had started it every now and then. Today it's more sauna, more beer, more good food and playing cs2. I made a mental agreement with myself that I won't play poker when drunk in this trip.
My bets for SuperBowl:
McCaffrey rec yards over 35,5y
McCaffey touches over 19,5
Purdy rushing yards over 12,5y
Mahomes rushing yards over 26,5y
Opening kickoff to touchback
Anthem over 90,5sec
I have good reasoning for all of those. I just wrote a long text in finnish for those. If someone wants to hear my thoughts, just let me know.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
Damn, went to shop to get some drinks and food for cabin trip. 300 euros, and I didn't even buy anything super expensive. Biggest single item was tenderloin for 20 euros. Bankroll challenge was for this trip, goal was +400 euros which seems quite accurate.
Quit living in Finland - will cut the cost of your shopping dramatically!
Now I have a problem. I have three "main courses": Kyyburgers (I make THE best burgers in the world!), tenderloin and ribs. And each of those is just super good. But also each of them is so heavy, that once I have eaten it there is no room for more. I think I will go with ribs and burgers, as it's Super Bowl. And leave the tenderloin for tomorrow.
Adult life is filled with tough decisions.
Not bad, won 5/6 bets. And that only lost one happened as Purdy took a knee in last 3 seconds. Without that knee it would have been 6/6. But +106€ to bankroll!
Double post. Mod can remove this one.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
I think I will go with ribs and burgers, as it's Super Bowl. And leave the tenderloin for tomorrow.
Originally posted by Kyyberi
Not bad, won 5/6 bets. And that only lost one happened as Purdy took a knee in last 3 seconds. Without that knee it would have been 6/6. But +106€ to bankroll!
Nice result!