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[Closed] NL100 - AA . shove?

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Strongsl
Joined: 19.01.2007

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB)
SB ($129)
BB ($162)
UTG ($123)
UTG+1 ($369)
CO ($89.63)
Hero ($100)

Dealt to Hero A♠ A♦

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.50, SB calls $3, BB calls $2.50

FLOP ($10.50) 5♣ 4♦ Q♣

SB checks, BB bets $6, Hero raises to $22, SB folds, BB raises to $46, Hero ?

villain 18/15/3.6

db 33%

wsd 25/w$sd 73

Hero?


6 replies
Kings
Joined: 21.10.2006

the flop offers some draws but i dont see a 18/15 tag playing his draws 3handed so agressive. the raise size looks a bit like "cmon call me". i think hero mucks :(


TheBrood
Joined: 17.07.2008

He looks like a setminer because of his tight stats and his donkbet on drawy flop.

He prob donks the flop to protect his hand, since its very drawy and he figures at least one of you is going to call. This way he builds up a pot too.

After you 2bet, I don't see him 3bet Qx so I prob fold. I don't see him raise this small with a draw either, he would have shoved for FE. Both his bets scream "Call me!"


osmium
Joined: 06.10.2007

Signed. I doubt he has a draw there nor a good Q. He's got you crushed imo.


Zheelvern
Joined: 29.10.2007

Fold.


Strongsl
Joined: 19.01.2007

db = donkbet.

Why would a TAG donkbet this flop? This is a good flop for a reg like me cbet. And as the other villain is a donkey, we will pay me off his draws. So, it wwould be more profitable for the TAG c.r. dont u think?


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

I think you can safely fold to the 3bet:

Board: Qc 5c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.568% 74.57% 00.00% 6644 0.00 { 55-44, Tc9c, 9c8c, 7c6c }
Hand 1: 25.432% 25.43% 00.00% 2266 0.00 { AdAs }

Like already mentioned it is unlikely he'd 3bet with Qx and vs the range above you're toast - and he might not even play his draws this way, so your EQ decreases further.
So although it sucks this is a raise/fold at the flop - notice that it's still no bluff since you expect to get called by worse like draws and Qx. So the raise is for value, protection and to define the opponents range.

Why would a TAG donkbet this flop? This is a good flop for a reg like me cbet. And as the other villain is a donkey, we will pay me off his draws. So, it wwould be more profitable for the TAG c.r. dont u think?

It is not the best board for you to cbet, especially if the SB is a donk - he could hold lots of draws with which he is not giving up, so you might be more inclined to check behind.
This makes a donkbet of BB a good play - he gets you out of the hand or in a tough spot if you hold aces like you actually did and at the same time he protects and gets value vs the donk.