I saw that hand... 
I only took a look at the equities, not the board itself. You were so far ahead on the turn, by Omaha standards, at least...
Really, I could only bury my head in my hands.
Some of the other spots where you lost were various degrees of bad luck, some probably weren't that great to begin with. But that hand above was brutal.
Well, cheer up, Prim - we're all going through it from time to time, you will make it too. 
Well it´s just frustrating when the unlikely events and the "hell-sessions" are cumulating, when the river appears to "always" destroy your hand, when you "always" seem to completely miss the flop, when just "every" (drunk) fun-player seem to hit their lucky wonder-card against you. Yeah, I know: That´s called downswing! It happens to everybody, but it suxx! Big time!
Need to clear my mind from that. Wouldn´t make sense to play tomorrow: with that negative mindset! Gotta get rid of this mindset first, before we continue... and that´s best done by just taking a break for a couple of days and doing something else. 
Yeah man poker can be super frustrating and it's extremely important to stay positive and not develop a negative mindset.
Yeah in cashgame one can't play lower than $2 buy-in... There is one exception of FLHE04 on Pokerstars where buy-in is $0.48; I am up like +$70 there lol.
On a more competitive platforms, that also cover sports, dislike is also possible. I think Prim put that dislike.
Originally posted by taavi1337
On a more competitive platforms, that also cover sports, dislike is also possible. I think Prim put that dislike.
Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees, sure! 
:f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly:
NO WAY I would dislike you, Taavi! 
Wise words and a very important lesson
While I was attending PLO Primetime yesterday, I learnt a very important lesson: We were not only talking about Omaha, but also about how to deal with variance. It was comforting to see that even coaches and poker pros are not fully resistant to variance! And as a newly trained statistician, I really should know about variance (yeah, standard deviation squared!). Am I variance-resistant? Well, no! So the question is: How do I get a bit more restistant?
Kyyberi prefers to use the cash out function, while, unfortunately, this function is not available to players from Germany on Partypoker! 
But there´s another way and that is: Tighten up my BRM!
While I had time to think about poker, I realized that I should play on limits that cannot hurt me! Not even in the worst downswing! I have seen - and not for the first time - how a downswing can affect your BR - and your mood! :rage::facepalm:
For most of us poker is just a hobby! So, why should we feel bad after persuing a hobby? In our free time, we should enjoy our hobbies! We should feel good when persuing a hobby! And we´re absolutely not in a hurry to move up quickly!
So, long story short, this is exactly why I decided to move down to NL2. There, variance doesn´t really affect me, it can´t hurt my BR badly! Of course I´m going to move up to NL5, plenty of fun-players there, but also high variance! So that´s not going to happen right now! At the moment NL2 it is!
Let´s have just a bigger BR-buffer! Let´s move up when BR reaches about 300 $ (around 250 €) or more. Just let´s have a BIG buffer for the swings in poker.
BR transfer
Well at least half of our BR goes to 888. Like this, we can play a bit more tables. 
So, we can put in a bit more volume. That´s the good news. But we got some bad news: MEGA DOWNSWING! AA got cracked four times, KK didn´t hold, QQ got cracked too and 99 % of the flops completely missed anyway. No matter what we hold, we loose! Either our hand gets outdrawn (QQ < 37s for example) or we just completely miss. There´s nothing we can do and we definitely move down to NL2 or else there will be a bankroll massacre!
Nothing works out: neither spins, or MTTs, or SnGs or CG! In the spins today, we lost most of our all-ins, no matter if flip, 70:30 or 60:40, same in CG (even though we don´t jam all-in so often). QQ got cracked by 37s, and by A7s and AA got cracked by ATo and QKo. So, at the moment it´s pretty much HORROR to play poker.
But this time, I refuse to give up! I gave up on SnGs and MTTs a couple of years ago because of a nasty downswing and I totally regretted it! This time, we won´t give up! Because: I´m a trained statistician now! And even though it´s easy to think I´m cursed, the room is rigged or things like that, in fact: It´s ALL just statistics!
But what I tend to underestimate is the amount of volume one has to put in, to reach enough sample size (hands). That´s pretty much CRAZY! And A LOT of work! 
Volume cures variance! But oh boy, the challenge is to put in volume like this, while staying calm and staying focussed but loosing with pretty much every hand no matter what.
Well, we got enough bankroll! I think being a trained statistician helps a lot with the Mental Game!
Originally posted by Primrose6789
But this time, I refuse to give up! I gave up on SnGs and MTTs a couple of years ago because of a nasty downswing and I totally regretted it! This time, we won´t give up! Because: I´m a trained statistician now! And even though it´s easy to think I´m cursed, the room is rigged or things like that, in fact: It´s ALL just statistics!But what I tend to underestimate is the amount of volume one has to put in, to reach enough sample size (hands). That´s pretty much CRAZY! And A LOT of work!
It's great that you're not giving up! But I still think that you may be trying to cram in too much volume in too short a time. As long as you think that you can keep your focus up and play a good game, it's fine, but with sessions as large as today's, it may be difficult to do.
I have a feeling that next week will be much better, and I will also be able to rail you again. Already looking forward to it.
Expectation vs reality 
Statistics put a spell on us! :f_biggrin::f_ugly: Well no, we´re just dealing with Poisson-distribution.
(source: Google Gemini 3 Flash)
I use Google Gemini as my assistant for my professional work, it´s better in science than ChatGPT - but much worse in creating images. So sorry, that image up there is not perfect, but it shows the so called Poisson-distribution - the clustering of certain events (like bad beats).
P (for k and lambda): This is the probability a certain event (bad beat f.e.) happens k times.
k is the number of events (f.e. eight times loosing AA to 37s)
lambda: Expectation in average! I expect in average lambda (for example 8 bad beats per 100 hands) events in a certain period of time.
k!: k factorial (So, if k =5, then k! is 1x2x3x4x5).
Don´t wanna bother you too much with math, so, just let´s summarize that the Poisson-distribution shows the probabilities of the clustering of certain rare (a set over set cooler f.e.), average or frequent events. So, this means: Rare events like set over set coolers or loosing a full house to quads can cumulate in a certain period of time.
And what do we do with all that? Well, quick and dirty: I let AI calculate the number of hands needed to get out of the downswing and recovering my BR (winning back 15 stacks) if I consistently play with a winrate of 5BB/100. In the best case, we (and our BR) will be fine in 10 K to 15 K hands. In average 30 K hands and if we´re really really "cursed" then it can even take 80 K hands! My expected winning after 30 K hands is in average 1500 BB (95 % Confidence Interval or short: CI).
So what does this say? This says that poker is not only the law of large numbers but the law of EXORBITANT numbers! :f_biggrin::f_ugly: And here we come to expectation vs. reality:
EXPECTATION:
REALITY:
(source: Chat GPT5, 2026, Open AI)
And with all that said, I would say: LET´S GET THE WORK DONE!
A hidden treasure
POKER TRACKER 4! Still got it - and I can use it on 888, as we got our BR now split half:half - half on Partypoker, half von 888! Bought it in 2018, when I was an SnG- and MTT-grindette and haven´t used it in ages! My licence is still active, though! Yaaaaaaaay! 
So, there will be even more statistics! Hurray! PT4 is installed and ready to use (but not today).
And all that ....is very close to what I do professionally, except for the EXORBITANT variance :f_ugly::f_biggrin:. Welcome to my job! 
Originally posted by taavi1337
Happy grinding! NL2 cashgame or lower buy-in tournaments?
Taavi, both, but the main topic here is of course CG! Well, due to the downie we gotta move down to NL2.
BR challenge report Week 29
Original start BR: 0 €
Starting the BR challenge with: 99,05 €
BR last week: 191,16 €
CG-hands: 2501+ x (cannot see it on 888)
MTTs: 2
Spins: 42
BR this week: 176,66, €
Result: - 14,50 €
Worse than a downswing ....
...but I made it through the huge bureaucracy monster! BREAKING NEWS, guys: BR transfer and I´m back on Stars! Yes, Pokerstars, that´s right. Why? Well 1) because I can use PT4 there and 2) because I can use the cash-out option there! Neither cash-out nor Tracker on Partypoker available! So: My whole lunchbreak was used to get though Pokerstars-bureaucracy :f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly::f_ugly: with all those verifications! :f_ugly::f_ugly:
So we got: some BR on Stars, some BR on 888 and a little bit of BR left on Party (for freerolls and fun).
Nevertheless, we´re still not running better, this time only one stack down is a great result!
1400 hands and counting ....
..well not anymore, got tired, but my goal is 1.000 hands per session and playing them RIGHT! A good podcast for the ears and then: bring it behind us. At least our evening session on Stars looked WAY better than our afternoon-session! Listening to a good podcast helps getting through the junk hands and the completely missed flops! Too bad, stars has no PLO2, but at least there´s the cash-out option to buffer variance a bit. Haven´t played PLO on Stars yet, but will try for sure when we´re out of the "darkness". :f_biggrin::f_thumbsup:
Meanwhile, let´s have some misclick equity 
PokerStars, No Limit Hold'em - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand at UpswingPoker.com
Player 1 (MP): $0.33 (16 bb)
Player 2 (HJ): $3 (150 bb)
Player 3 (CO): $1.93 (96 bb)
Player 4 (BU): $2.38 (119 bb)
Player 5 (SB): $1.82 (91 bb)
Player 6 (BB): $2 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero (Katniss123) is CO with 9♥ 9♦
sansans41 (MP) folds, kaiski5 (HJ) folds, Katniss123 (CO) raises to $0.06, Juanhan (BU) folds, y# 11:11 y# (SB) raises to $0.16, PokerBandiet (BB) raises to $0.42, Katniss123 (CO) calls $0.36, y# 11:11 y# (SB) folds
Flop ($1) 2♦ A♦ 3♣ (2 players)
PokerBandiet (BB) checks, Katniss123 (CO) checks
Turn ($1) 9♣ (2 players)
PokerBandiet (BB) bets $0.50, Katniss123 (CO) raises to $1.51 (all-in), PokerBandiet (BB) calls $1.01
River ($4.02) T♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $4.02 (Rake: $0.25)
Showdown
Player 1 (MP): $0.33 +$0
Player 2 (HJ): $3 +$0
Player 3 (CO): $3.77 +$1.84 [9♥ 9♦]
Player 4 (BU): $2.38 +$0
Player 5 (SB): $1.66 -$0.16
Player 6 (BB): $0.07 -$1.93 [A♣ K♠]
Originally posted by taavi1337
Yeah in cashgame one can't play lower than $2 buy-in... There is one exception of FLHE04 on Pokerstars where buy-in is $0.48; I am up like +$70 there lol.
Yeah I tried that out a bit a few weeks ago. Not sure if i really like this game, its just so tempting to call people down and people also station nonstop.
