[Closed] NL200: TPWK, standard?

I would bet turn for protection/value since its HU and he could call down Jx, 3x or a draw. If you want pot control I like your line but you give him a free card.

I'm not sure but i think you could fold the river.

He check/calls the flop, so since there are no draws he has to have some kind of showdown value.
At the turn i like your check, vs worse hands you'll get a maximum of one more street of value, but there's a certain chance they fold at the turn because of the implied threat you put on them because there's one more street to play.

Once he bets the river i think he has Ax most of the time.
He can't bet a jack for value - maybe KJ or QJ, but that's it. So most of his valuebettingrange beats you.

At the same time you shouldn't assume that an unknown floats you OOP.
So vs his bettingrange you are clearly behind.

Notice that one he checks you can bet for thin value.

hu bet turn for value and you can likely check back river
if you check turn you have to all river bet, since he is betting there with also Jx

Why do you think he bets his Jx?

That makes no sense, it would basically be a bluff that never works.

Originally posted by Bierbaer
Why do you think he bets his Jx?

That makes no sense, it would basically be a bluff that never works.

Since hero would call often there with any pair

I'm sure most Jx will call once only unless there is some sort of unique history. I've tried calling two streets with the mid pair a few times before as well and often my opponent has Ax.

People generally respect the ace on a dry board.

I think a fold is best. The halfpot bet is definitely a valuebet with Ax, and we have the worse Ax. I doubt he tries to float us on the river OOP with Jx or some air hand.

Alternatively, I wouldn't mind checkback on the flop as well and try to bluff induce one street.

Originally posted by Kaitz20

Originally posted by Bierbaer
Why do you think he bets his Jx?

That makes no sense, it would basically be a bluff that never works.

Since hero would call often there with any pair

I disagree.

My point is, that if you try and get in your opponents head you'll see:
Villain sees you cbetting at a dry AJx board.

Villain check/calls on this board and recognizes that this tells hero that villain has some sort of hand.

Hero checks back the turn - he would do that with air and with his medium hands - since villain has some sort of hand hero should be betting his strong hands for value.

At the river villain recognizes that hero either has air, OR some mediocre hand. Since we assume he is not going to float vs an unknown on this board oftentimes, it leaves us with 'some sort of hand'.

And he knows that hero will fold all his air hands and call most of his 'some sort of hand'- hands.

So the half pot bet on the river is a bet for value vs hero's medium strength hands - including Jx, and likely the very bad Ax - which means villains hand beats those!

Hero should fold 3x, 2x and 7x because villain is never betting unless he has either Ax - or maybe KJ or QJ.
But even then a bigger part of his range beats heros hands because he's mostly betting better Ax and some 2pairs.

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And by the way: If villain has Jx this is no more a value hand but a bluffcatcher - he is much more likely to check/call these since he can't get much value but maybe induce a bluffbet.

well I´d bet river for value Jx and I think most of the the other players who has played hu against players who would not fold any pair on the river.
at least they would call TT-44 most of the times, since you can also c/c flop with 3x, KQ, QT and so on