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[Closed] QQ - fold flop?

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Confeti
Joined: 02.04.2008

Fold flop directly?

I call flop because was a drawy board, but as MP1 bet again I think at less one of them had the A.

Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;Hero$38,65:///////;UTG$54,25:151/28 /16 /1,8/31 /22 /-/46 ;MP1$18,30:101/17 /13 /1,6/69 /17 /100 /33 ;MP3$101,00:374/27 /16 /1,2/46 /53 /100 /51 ;[/tg]
1/2 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♥, Q♦
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8,50 SB) 7♠, A♠, 9♣ (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, MP1 raises, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (7,25 BB) 3♣ (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero folds.

River: (9,25 BB) 8♠ (2 players)
MP1 bets, MP3 raises, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 13,25 BB


12 replies

As MP3 only coldcalled the flop I think you have hm beat almost always.
MP1 can easily raise K9 or K7, maybe just a draw and a monster draw is possible too.

Board: As 9c 7s 3c
Dead:

Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
Spieler 1: 47.449 % 47.431 % 0.036 % 52.533 % 99, 77, ATs-A2s, K9s, K7s, Q9s, J9s, T8s+, 97s, K9o
Spieler 2: 24.829 % 24.811 % 0.036 % 75.153 % KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Qs6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js7s, Js6s, Js5s, Js4s, Js3s, Js2s, Ts9s, Ts8s, Ts7s, Ts6s, Ts5s, Ts4s, Ts3s, Ts2s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 9s6s, 9s5s, 9s4s, 9s3s, 9s2s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 8s5s, 8s4s, 8s3s, 8s2s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 7s3s, 7s2s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 6s3s, 6s2s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 5s2s, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s
Spieler 3: 27.722 % 27.722 % 0.000 % 72.278 % QhQd

~28% doesn't look that bad but he may not raise that aggressive and then a fold is better. If he is aggressive I call the turn and fold bad rivercards. Maybe a fold is still the best play even against an aggressive opponent as it will be still 3-haned on the river and if he bets again a bluff becomes pretty unlikely so you have to fold even to blank.

Anyone a better idea? :)


OlivierLu
Joined: 17.11.2007

There are several facts for a flop fold.

This is a multiway pot and we have a marginal hand
There is one raise + 1 call behind you
You have absolutely no redraw
You can't 3bet to eject somebody out of the hand
You are OOP and risking a raising war
If against a flush draw + top pair, you are drawing to only 1 out

I wouldn't stove this hand and would have played it c/f directly on the flop.


Confeti
Joined: 02.04.2008

Originally posted by OlivierLu

I wouldn't stove this hand and would have played it c/f directly on the flop.

C/F?? Do you didn't the continuation bet flop?

Greetings.-


Originally posted by OlivierLu
You are OOP and risking a raising war

You are last to act after his raise so that point doesn't count.

Check/fold flop is no option. That's way too weak. You are very often ahead so you need to bet. Bet/fold flop for almost 14:1 is nothing I like either. Sure I'm not used to FR nymore but he should be able to raise a few worse pairs here if not just a draw. Both can have a draw so for 14:1 I make the flopcall. To follow that line you have to even call the turn but his bet becomes only stronger as it makes no sense for him to bet a draw again so now you are pretty often behind and as the pot is smaller (oddswise) a fold is probably better.


OlivierLu
Joined: 17.11.2007

Even if the hand was playing SH, I wouldn't conti-bet this one.

1st, If I conti-bet then 1 villain call, I could raised by a lone flush draw that will barrel the turn for sure.
If I call this flop raise, I commit myself to the showdown if no :spade: turn out until the river. If it's 3way, I'm way to often against Ax no kicker.

I'm not sure it's that weak to c/f this flop.

Would you bet a rainbow A79 board ?
Is it because of the flush draw that you bet ?


No the flushdraw is rather bad than good for us so that makes no difference for a flopbet.

The preflopcaller have pretty decent stats so I don't see them limping Ax that often (at least not more often that small pair or suited/offsuited connectors).
I really think that check/fold is very weak here. Would you check/fold in a 3-way pot as well?


OlivierLu
Joined: 17.11.2007

In a 3-way pot, it's way much closer.
In a 4-way flop, with a contibet+a raise+a call, I just can't see hero over average equity...


Originally posted by OlivierLu
In a 4-way flop, with a contibet+a raise+a call, I just can't see hero over average equity...

True, but the pot is so huge that I call closing the action and decide on the turn what to do.

The flopraise can be a flushdraw on the turn with getting 2 callers he won't bet a lot weaker hand not again so now we are against his better range and can fold.


OlivierLu
Joined: 17.11.2007

Talking with only odds & outs, I give me 1.5 outs. The Q:s is not a good out for me but I'll improve often enough on the river to count this one half an out.

1.5 outs needs something around 30 to 35:1 to call. The pot is big but not big enough !


Sorry for the late reply. You made me worry about my play so I asked other judges about it.

2 responded and make the continuationbet but give up after the raise. So they bet/fold the flop because the odds aren't good enough to call for our discounted outs and we are not often enough ahead to calldown as well.


OlivierLu
Joined: 17.11.2007

Originally posted by ciRith
Sorry for the late reply. You made me worry about my play so I asked other judges about it.

2 responded and make the continuationbet but give up after the raise. So they bet/fold the flop because the odds aren't good enough to call for our discounted outs and we are not often enough ahead to calldown as well.

no problem. I appreciate.
I've noted that c/f is too weak. Next time, I'll play b/f for a balancing (I guess?) issue between b/f, b/c and b/3b.


On this limit I would go for the maximum value. As long as it's not HU you don't need to worry about being exploited. Often I like to get raised and get another coldcaller in spots like these as a fold feels still weak but they won't start raising trash as long as there are others in the hand.