Hey guys
First some background. I was going through the marked hands on my pokertracker and replaying some sit and gos that I played this week and marked for study today. I do this every week as I am always trying to find my mistakes and correct them as poker is my job and making as much money as possible naturally my goal.
I play poker full time- 6 handed DONs on ipoker 20-50 dollar atm
multitabling
I was thinking about whether some of my decisions were good and profitable- one scenario kept repeating itself in different forms:
I am on bb with around starting stack of 1500
The sb has roughly the same amount of chips 1400-1600
The blinds are 100/200 and we are 5 handed
The stack sizes are roughly below:
Player 1: 3000
Plyer 2: 1500
Player 3: 1500
Villan: 1450
Me: 1550
The hand:
every one passes to sb who moves all in
Now some all important backround:
Villan is a player I am familar with- I have notes on them and stats from sharkscope HUD and my pokertracker HUD
The player moves all in on sb when it is passed around with hands with some showdown value. There are literally 100s of players like this that I have notes on
I have JJ
For the instance of this post I am assuming the player has the below combinations of hands:
A10 A9 A8 A7 A6 A5 A4 A3 A2
KJ K10 K9 K8 K7 K6 K5
QJ Q10 A9
All of the hands are one overcard hands where my Jacks are roughly 70%
I was wondering if in these circumstances the call is the right thing. Here is how I justify this:
If I call and lose: 30% of the time I fail to cash
If I call and win I will cash 58.3% of the time
Therefore a long story short if this happens over and over I will make sufficient money in the long run to justify a call
Here is my math:
obv if I lose which will happen 30% of the time I fail to cash
Of the 70 times out of 100 I win the showdown I will go on to cash 5 times out of 6:
Here I am presuming that I am at least as good as the remaining 4 players after I win the showdown and knock the villan out at bubble play in the DONs (this is defo justifyable as this is my job and I have a +roi over 10000s of games)
I worked this out as after I win the hand the table will be:
Player 1: 3000
Player 2: 1500
Player 3: 1500
Me: 3000
My 5/6 is- my chance of bubbling=1/6 Player 1 is also 1/6 Player 3 and player 4 are both 2/6 This is because of the current chip stacks. I am aware that this example only works when 5 stacks are similar and 1 stack is a double stack BUT this happens a lot in the 6 handed DONs so i am fine with this drawback.
Therefore I will only bubble here 1/6 times
Now for some more math
70 times I win the showdown multiplying by the 5/6 I go on to cash in these 70 games would lead to me cashing 58.3%of the time. ((70*(5/6))Seeing that I need to cash 55% to beat the rake this call with JJ is justifyable.
What do you guys think????????????????????
