Originally posted by Gerv
I think we are flipping at best if we get it all-in with a c/r while a leading bet can invite worser hands to call us.
Do we need Fold Equity here Ardarandir ? I mean that I do not really see what you are meaning with that so if you would explain it to me please
- Gerv
The point is that there are really no worse hands coming along...lets just look at the numbers here:
Best case
Villain has 89 which he going to flat vs. the lead he has got 31,1%
If Villain has 88 he has already 50,1%
with a hand like JT he has 55,1%
vs a range of 88,99,9T,JT,QT,KT,AT,67,78,TT,JJ-AA we have 42,5%
some villains won't call a lead here with 88,99 other will. The point is though, most won't call a c/r, so just in case UTG and MP have 88 and decide to c-bet and we c/r and they fold, we make them fold a 50,1% share of the pot which is obviously massive. So the range above is a total of 11,61%. If we handle to make 88,99,9T,JT,QT,KT fold on the flop villain folds 49,4% of his range. A range against which we run at 49%, the range we get it in against will obviously be stronger now ( vs. AT,67,78,TT,JJ-AA we have 35,4%). But there really is no need for keeping the rest of his range around
PS: i took flush draws out of the equitation because the most likeliest flush draw is some Acxc flush draw but there are obviously others that we dominate too, so I think it doenst make a difference for the equation