[Closed] AA vs. random hands - online poker

Originally posted by Chippolata
To be honnest.

My opinion worth what it worth and i know that most successful online player won't agree with me.

Anyway, imho I actually believe online poker is and will ever be more ore less rigged in various clever and subtiles ways.

Why do i think so:

If they really want to do it, they just can do it and there is noway in hell anyone will ever be able to prove it.

being myself a programmer and having worked a lot on data compression with statistics, I have no doubt that you can actually do kind of whatever you want. Especially if your servers are located in a country where noone will ever be able to investigate them.

In the end why i am actually convinced online poker is rigged is not the bad beat or whatever of the game itself.

It is the opbvious ability for them to do so and the enormous financial interest they have in doing so.

This doesn't mean that you cannot win, not at all...

In the end what i actually think is:

Why in hell would they not do it ?!

please tell me...

And as a conclusion:

How in hell would i care about it as long as i still can make money out of it ?

I rather play rigged poker to make 85% of the money i should than spend my entire life working without being ever able to earn half of it.

Play at iPoker. Their programmers can't even program resizeable tables let alone track cards, deposit records and stack sizes of players at their tables.

AA 209 times
win 88.52%
W$SD 77.32%

Originally posted by chuongdk
AA 209 times
win 88.52%
W$SD 77.32%

nice nice nice
Where are you played?

Originally posted by Chippolata
To be honnest.

My opinion worth what it worth and i know that most successful online player won't agree with me.

Anyway, imho I actually believe online poker is and will ever be more ore less rigged in various clever and subtiles ways.

Why do i think so:

If they really want to do it, they just can do it and there is noway in hell anyone will ever be able to prove it.

being myself a programmer and having worked a lot on data compression with statistics, I have no doubt that you can actually do kind of whatever you want. Especially if your servers are located in a country where noone will ever be able to investigate them.

In the end why i am actually convinced online poker is rigged is not the bad beat or whatever of the game itself.

It is the opbvious ability for them to do so and the enormous financial interest they have in doing so.

This doesn't mean that you cannot win, not at all...

In the end what i actually think is:

Why in hell would they not do it ?!

please tell me...

And as a conclusion:

How in hell would i care about it as long as i still can make money out of it ?

I rather play rigged poker to make 85% of the money i should than spend my entire life working without being ever able to earn half of it.

SO how do they decide which players to rig the game in favour of?

And why?

Or is there a way to rig it in favour of themselves?

Hi Johny,
first you can have this problem if you play your aces like this :
Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BU$137.70:///////;SB$127.50:///////;BB(Hero)$110.70:///////;MP2$249.00:///////;MP3$28.55:///////;CO$100.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2:h, 4:s.
MP2 calls $1.00, MP3 calls $1.00, 2 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero checks.

Flop: ($4) 5:h, 6:c, 3:c (4 players)
SB bets $3.00, Hero raises to $10.00, MP2 calls $10.00, MP3 calls $10.00, SB folds.

Turn: ($37) Q:d (3 players)
Hero bets $27.00, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $17.55(All-In).

River: ($81.55) 9:s (0 players)
MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $64.
Results follow:

Hero shows a straight, six high(2:h 4:s).
MP3 shows a pair of aces(A:d A:h).

Hero wins with a straight, six high(2:h 4:s).

If no, and you play them aggressively, then i can say u have very small sample size. My statistics:
AA 310 times
win 94.84 %
W$SD 81.82%

Originally posted by VytenisN
Hi Johny,
first you can have this problem if you play your aces like this :
Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BU$137.70:///////;SB$127.50:///////;BB(Hero)$110.70:///////;MP2$249.00:///////;MP3$28.55:///////;CO$100.00:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2:h, 4:s.
MP2 calls $1.00, MP3 calls $1.00, 2 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero checks.

Flop: ($4) 5:h, 6:c, 3:c (4 players)
SB bets $3.00, Hero raises to $10.00, MP2 calls $10.00, MP3 calls $10.00, SB folds.

I do not crazy.I raise preflop 4xBB and more.

Turn: ($37) Q:d (3 players)
Hero bets $27.00, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $17.55(All-In).

River: ($81.55) 9:s (0 players)
MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $64.
Results follow:

Hero shows a straight, six high(2:h 4:s).
MP3 shows a pair of aces(A:d A:h).

Hero wins with a straight, six high(2:h 4:s).

If no, and you play them aggressively, then i can say u have very small sample size. My statistics:
AA 310 times
win 94.84 %
W$SD 81.82%

I do not crazy.I raise preflop 4xBB and more.I want play only 1 oponents.

I play a lot of hands, and I have this to say....I have won around 85% of my AA hands, HOWEVER, over the course of time i'm only +a small amount for my total AA played, why is this? Because as the age old saying goes, AA will either win you a small pot, or lose you a massive one (or something along those lines). In the last weeks...i'm +$18 from AA (nice), my biggest profit with AA is $13, my biggest loss with AA is -$80 and then all the rest of the times i'm winning $5-10 here n there to keep it in the positives...

SO, the lesson is, be careful. I'll win with AA more than I'll lose, however, when I do lose it's usually in a big way. Treat the bullets carefully!

Originally posted by andyb43
SO how do they decide which players to rig the game in favour of?

And why?

Or is there a way to rig it in favour of themselves?

Both proposition can be valid.

The question for any company is the following:

How can i get the more possible money from my customers while keeping them happy.

Here you need a statistical market analysis...

E.g: Statistically, how much time a so called fish need to win with a bad beat for him to come back and durably spend his money ?

This example of optimization could even be profitable to better players...

It is obviously better to see a lot of fishes comming back.

I.e Winning 20% on 10 fishes is better than winning 40% on 2 fishes.

<win 94.84 %>
Of course it's easy to teach other people how to play in plus, having such stats.
How about AA win 80%, and 4th place in this cat, and even winning less money than queens? Or having worst hand - not KJ or even AJ, but TT? Always muck pocket tens?

Originally posted by VytenisN
Hi Johny,
first you can have this problem if you play your aces like this :

You are wrong .. Consider if you were a bot, who plays AA the same way all the time : Raises, gets only 1 caller and always puts all the chips in .. He would win the showdown exact amount of times as you can compute in a calculator like Equilator, the way you play the hand does not at all effect the chances of winning the hand, it only changes the amounts you win or loose

To the original question, get at least 1k hand sample size .. Well even that would not be enough to draw any conclusions .. So all you can do is either believe that poker online is not rigged and play on, or believe it is rigged and stop playing (or, of course, find the way it is rigged and use it to your advantage )

Originally posted by AugustusCaesar
So all you can do is either believe that poker online is not rigged and play on, or believe it is rigged and stop playing (or, of course, find the way it is rigged and use it to your advantage )

You can also think that you still can win by playing a statistically correct game, even though it is rigged.

Maybe not as much as you should, maybe even more than you should in the long run.

Even though i had incredible strikes of bad luck, with the rakeback and the bonus i am still winning a descent amount of money.

And your current overall status is imo a very important thing to remember especially when you are on a losing streak...

Looking at what really can make you lose the more money, imo, if they had to rigg it, I guess they would try to make it more likely to cause tilts ->

What would make me quit is effectively going down to zero after 15 days of 6-8h of poker a day.
Because there, that would be my time i would be losing...

Originally posted by AugustusCaesar

Originally posted by VytenisN
Hi Johny,
first you can have this problem if you play your aces like this :

You are wrong .. Consider if you were a bot, who plays AA the same way all the time : Raises, gets only 1 caller and always puts all the chips in

Where did u find that you always get one caller and always put all chips ? Of course you should play based on conditions. But with that example i wanted to show that basic rules still apply ( odds and etc.)
But still you would limp preflop every time and then put all chips in, you will lose much more, then raise and put all chips in.
And if u raise PF, and then bet 1/10 of pot in wet flop and let your opponent to draw out, you will lose much more then you win.
So i did not understant what u wanted to say with our post ( that part about me being wrong)

My SSS stats for the month of November when I become golden:
Win % 81, Win money at showdown 62.5%. Cool, ah?
Last session 10 AA hands, 3 just got blinds, win at showdown 2 of 4 (50%). Thank you PS for great cards!

AA at NL5 win is 95%, about 107 times.

I must confess. I cracked aces with AKo the other day (AI preflop). I almost felt ashamed. Poor guy.

(Ah! That's for all the friggin' times a pocket pair cracks my AA/KK with straights and one card flushes!)

♦