[Closed] NL 100fr set vs two

no way we can get out of here.
maniac can have anythink here and mp almost never have strong hand , but he commited already with his tp \ draw.

Hi,

I assume that MP has 33 or 99 here, maybe JTs.
His calls look ultrastrong especially the coldcall after maniacs push.
I'd push it too most probably, but i say goodbye to my stack in my thoughts before river will hit.

Best regards,
Anin

thats pretty disgusting of a situation for FR

if it was like a 7 instead of 9 on flop u can definitely fold here coz there are just no real 2pair+ strong draws hands combos that u re ahaed of.. then i ll rly be just the higher sets coz he is also waiting for the maniac to react.. obv what passive fish do.

here i go with the crowd that its rly hardly possible to fold, the mp passive fish can have more of JTs,TKs,T8s, 9xs hands which didnt want to get c/r with coz he is a fish on flop and now is calling for fd+ 2 pair outs.. with a 7 there would be less of those and u could potentially fold, but u should rly do some equities calculation on your own to find out

For me it's hard to estimate your equity, like TLN said you should open up Pokerstove (or the Elephant) and play around with the ranges of the opponents a bit.

It will give you a better insight of the situation and a much better understanding of the general equity distribution in this kind of situation.

If you have problems putting the opponents on ranges or with any other concern just post it in here and unmark the thread by checking "Advise the judge of taking another look at this thread".

I think at the table i would shove it in because i wouldn't be sure about my equity, but perhaps that's a bad move.

Thanks for the replies, as always :).

I'll give it a shot to determine ranges here:

1:Board: Qh 9s 3h 2c
Dead:
Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 21,550 % 21,327 % 0,446 % 78,227 % QQ, 99, 33, AKs, AhJh, AhTh, QTs, JTs, QTo, JTo
Player 2: 63,812 % 63,589 % 0,446 % 35,965 % 99, 33, AhKh, JhTh
Player 3: 14,638 % 14,638 % 0,000 % 85,362 % 2s2h

2:
Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 26,283 % 26,194 % 0,178 % 73,628 % QQ, 99, 33, AKs, AhJh, AhTh, QTs, JTs, QTo, JTo
Player 2: 26,391 % 26,302 % 0,178 % 73,520 % 99, 33, AhKh, AQs, JhTh, AQo
Player 3: 47,326 % 47,326 % 0,000 % 52,674 % 2s2h

But without AQ in his range MP1 would be:

3:
Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 21,096 % 20,841 % 0,510 % 78,649 % QQ, 99, 33, AKs, AhJh, AhTh, QTs, JTs, QTo, JTo
Player 2: 70,661 % 70,406 % 0,510 % 29,084 % 99, 33, JhTh
Player 3: 8,243 % 8,243 % 0,000 % 91,757 % 2s2h

I'm not sure if AQ would be in his range, and maybe he is slowplaying QQ? Much depends upon his range, if it is polarized to 99, 33 and JTh I should fold, but if we add some flushdraws and AQ it looks like a push?

I think villains range are much much narrower than you put in the equilator.

But i definetely think you get the odds to go broke in this hand. The board is suited, and a tiny bit connected.

I would be scared of the potbet on turn. It is fine to go broke here I guess, but if you were deepstacked. I would be inclined to just call turn and probably call river.

Well, the UTG was a maniac so I putted him on a wide range (it looked like he was tilting). At the third equitation MP1 has got a polarized range, and against that range I certainly don't get good odds.

The problem for me in this hand was that I put the maniac on a wide range, and because of that I thought MP1 might loosen up a little too. Still, there is quite some money I will probably lose. But it also doesn't seem like an obvious fold.

The only think we should be worry of is MP range (while utg could be tilting and could have anythink).
So for mp i dont think he ever have higher set. Its way too spewy to just call in 3way w\o position on such a wet board. So i think he have set 15% of the time and draws other time. So easy call for me and especcialy when you are raising. (we could consider just calling init. raise on turn but not folding after we raised)

I also think the ranges you gave them aren't completely correct.
MP would oftentimes bet set on the flop once utg checks to him as he would bet 2pairs.
So i think the whole thing looks more like:
Board: Qh 9s 3h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.584% 70.58% 00.00% 1838 0.00 { QQ, 99, 33, AhKh, AhJh, AhTh, JhTh }
Hand 1: 09.754% 09.75% 00.00% 254 0.00 { AhKh, AQs, AhJh, JhTh }
Hand 2: 19.662% 19.66% 00.00% 512 0.00 { 2h2s }

But even vs these tight ranges you have a call:
you have to call 60 to win ~267, so you need about 22.5% equity.
I think with even a slight chance that UTG is spazzing out and MP is calling him too loose the raise/call should be ok.