Adv SSS Coaching - 02/24
Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
[tg]Hero$43,45:///////;BB$65,27:///////;MP2$204,00:///////;[/tg]
1,00/2,00 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q♥, K♥
3 folds, MP2 calls $2,00, 3 folds, Hero calls $1,00, BB checks.
Flop: ($6,00) 3♥, 4♠, 9♥ (3 players)
Hero bets $4,70, BB calls $4,70, MP2 folds.
Turn: ($15,40) T♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $10,63, BB raises to $21,26, Hero folds.
Final Pot: $47,29
MP2: VPIP 15 / PFR 2, limp in MP 12%, limp/call 66%, limp/raise 20%
BB unknown
With the very passive MP2 raising KQ is not the only possible line in this spot. Completing and deciding on the flop when to play gives us more information and avoids isolating against MP2 strong limp/calling range. If villain limp/folds more the raise gets more interesting though.
Our monsterdraw should be played with maximum aggression on the flop in order to achieve foldequity. Since we're heads up on the turn and no draws did improve a second barrel is a possible choice. If we know BB likes to bet a lot against missed bets a checkraise is also possible - due to our still big remaining stack we can also achive foldequity this way.
The question which aroused in the coaching was wether to fold, call or push against the minraise from villain. First of all pot odds are essential to consider. The total pot is 15.40$+10.63$+21.26$ = 47.29$ if we consider calling. In case we push we have to assume BB directly raises us all-in on the turn. Then the total pot is 15.40$+10.63$+36.75$ = 62.78$. In this case we have to call our 26.12$ remaing stack. The pot odds are 2.4:1 and we thus need at least 29.4% equity to be breakeven. In case we just call the raise the pots odds are 47.29$:10.63$ = 4.45:1 and thus we need to improve on the river in at least 18.4%.
Lets deal with the call option first. I can't really imagine what villain can play this way. 2 options are most likely for me, either he slowplayed something on the flop or he called with overcards on the flop an catched another draw or top pair. I don't think he plays unimproved draws this way. Thus my evaluation of his range is rather strong. Consequently I assume he is already commited to the pot with most of his holdings. Thats the point for just calling: we can play fit or fold on the river and he will pay us mostly for our small remaining stack. If we improve we push, otherwise we fold. The advantage is to have the minimum risk due to the decent pot odds. I would push the river with every heart and every J. Wether our KQ outs are good enough to be pushed is harder to say. A possible play could be check/calling K or Q rivers. This gives BB the opportunity to bluff if he really has unimroved draws. However this depends much on BB aggressiveness. This line definetely works: even in our worst case - if villain has a set and only our heart and J outs are alive - we still have 22.7% equity left. Combined with the remaining implied odds this makes a nice profit. The EV of this worst case scenario would be:
EV = 0.227*62.78$ - 0.773*10.63$ = 6.03$
The other option would be to push. But we then have no foldequity. Thus we should assume a direct all-in raise from villain on the turn. The pot odds are as calculated above 2.4:1 and we thus need at least 29.4% equity to be breakeven.
What can villain have?
set (e.g. 33,44,99), we have 22.7% equity left
2 pair (e.g. T9 or 43) we have 25% equity left
top pair (e.g. AT, JT, QT...), we have ~36-38% equity left
other flushdraw( e.g. Axs, 87s), against higher and lower flushdraws in a ratio 1:1 we have 50% equity
OESD, (e.g. 65 or QJ), we have 80.5% equity left
overcard bluff ( e.g. AJ, KQ, KJ) we have 60.9% equity left
If you've got different ideas about possible hand categories for villain just post them here!
Now its about to weigh those categories in a reasonable way. Since we haven't got much information its always good to assume different scenarios from worst-case to good assumptions.
a)
set 35%
2 pair 30%
top pair 20%
other flushdraw 5%
OESD 5%
overcard bluff 5%
Our total equity would be: 22.7*0.35 + 25*0.3 + 37*0.2 + 50*0.05 + 80.5*0.05 + 60.9*0.05 = 32.4%
EV = 0.324*62.78$ - 0.676*26.12$ = 2.68$
b)
set 25%
2 pair 25%
top pair 25%
other flushdraw 10%
OESD 5%
overcard bluff 10%
Our total equity would be: 22.7*0.25 + 25*0.25 + 37*0.25 + 50*0.1 + 80.5*0.05 + 60.9*0.1 = 36.3%
EV = 0.363*62.78$ - 0.637*26.12$ = 6.15$
c)
set 20%
2 pair 20%
top pair 20%
other flushdraw 15%
OESD 10%
overcard bluff 15%
Our total equity would be: 22.7*0.2 + 25*0.2 + 37*0.2 + 50*0.15 + 80.5*0.1 + 60.9*0.15 = 41.6%
EV = 0.416*62.78$ - 0.584*26.12$ =10.86$
The result is the following: against a very tight and strong range calling has the higher EV. as soon as villain however starts bluffing or raising looser hands the direct push gives us the higher EV. In any case folding, which I did is thw worst decision. 
But now we know better 
Best regards,
xarry