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[Closed] NL400 SH Call or fold river with my betsizing tell

6 Posts
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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Poker Stars $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 710798
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $849.30
SB: $400.00
BB: $540.60
UTG: $475.30
CO: $489.60

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with A :spade: Q :diamond:
UTG raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30.00) K :spade: A :heart: 7 :diamond: (2 players)
UTG bets $20.00, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($70.00) 7 :spade: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $40.00, UTG calls $40

River: ($150.00) T :heart: (2 players)
UTG bets $100.00, Hero calls $100

Villian doesn't balance his betsizing well. I noticed he has two sizes. He either bets 20 into 24 or 20 into 30. Perhaps he just like the number 20 but I suspect his 80% pot bet is for monsters. I did see him bet 2/3 with a marginal top pair type of hand

He is 22/17/4.4, AF above 5 for all streets and he has a low turn barrel frequency (1 out of 5 times)

His MP opening range is more than 20%. I estimate this to be ATo+, A9s+, maybe some other weaker suited Aces.

On the river I believe AJ wouldn't bet, AQ wouldn't bet, AK would have barreled the turn. I really felt he might have AT quite often but I'm not too sure if my read is right so I just called. I would certainly fold if the river card was a Jack.


5 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

1) Nanonoko

He has been giving me the most trouble for the past few days so i decided to start with him. Here are some of my findings (I only have 3k sample size so I can only infer):

OOP Calling range: Broadways, Suited Connectors
OOP 3betting range: Suited Trash, Off-suit Connectors, Broadways (vs specific type of opponents). He will 3bet trash vs me (cause I call tight) but 3bet broadways for value vs fishier opponents who call too wide.

Pocket pairs: He's always checking them down, regardless of whether he's the aggressor or not. Probably protects this weak range with some weak top pair type of hands. I am not too sure how he plays them OOP but I think he calls them from the blinds.

2) FastEddie267

OOP Calling range: Pocketpairs, ATo, Suited Aces (ATs-A7s)
IP 3bet calling range: KTs,
OOP 3betting range: TT, AQ
IP 3betting range: 79s, K5s, KJo (vs MP raiser), AJo (BvB 3bet/5bet)

Cbetting tendencies: Flop cbet is about 66%, but he doesn't cbet dry flops a lot. He also doesn't cbet monotone flops sometimes.

Generally plays passively with pairs, sometimes bluff donk and barrel.

I shall update this list in the future, maybe do further research into postflop stuff. I'm using leakbuster to get a rough feel of their preflop tendencies.


Ninjai
Joined: 29.04.2007

I guess the trouble in this hands particularly comes from the fact villain rarely has a bluffing-range here at all. If you look at his perceived range on the turn, he probably c/c all Ax hands and maybe QsJs, sometimes maybe TT-QQ. Looking onto your range now, you clearly have AT through AQ, sometimes even AK here. You might eventually even show up with 7x and the fact that he knows that and still does stop&go on the river is a pretty decent indicator for him not to be bluffing. A good player surely notices that you rarely fold Ax here on a bet, while you might ocassionaly check those behind on the river.

As players don't expect you to fold here, you should, so for me this is an easy spot to lay the hand down.


ge5sterne
Joined: 04.03.2007

I wouldn't always bet the Turn here, certainly depends on the opponent and if I believe he has a c/c Range on the Turn which includes hands like AJ, KQ etc. I like the thin valuebet in general, but since we hardly get three streets of value anyways, I would consider to check back against some players.

As played: Easy fold on the River in my opinion. He hardly has any busted Draws in his range and as Ninjai mentioned he won't expect you to fold much of your range on the river which you play this way. You might well have Twopair or stronger yourself and Bet Flop, c/c Turn, Lead River on this boardtexture is hardly ever a bluff.


TheLastNail
Joined: 30.05.2008

snapfold R, question is w AT, u as well dont beat pretty much anything other than blockbet from AQ/J which is rly stupid to do in his position anyway. Think with no meta ur calling range shouldnt be weaker than AK+


Villain's line is strange indeed. I also think this is a clear fold. I think this "weird" line is more often a trap than a bluff. One interesting thing, though, is that turn brings BDFD, which he could possibly c/c turn.