NL100 FR Overpair vs mini c/r T

05.10.2010, 09:16 0

$0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Known players:
[tg]UTG1$77.55:///////;UTG2$126.20:///////;MP1$97.95:///////;MP2 (Hero)$121.55:///////;MP3$22.85:///////;CO$186.85:///////;BU$142.35:///////;SB$38.00:///////;BB$183.55:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:d, A:c.
UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls $1.00, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, MP3 folds, CO calls $4.50, 3 folds, UTG2 calls $3.50.

Flop: ($15) 4:c, 3:c, 5:c (3 players)
UTG2 checks, Hero bets $10.00, CO folds, UTG2 calls $10.00.

Turn: ($35) 5:s (2 players)
UTG2 checks, Hero bets $21.00, UTG2 raises to $50.00, Hero raises to $107.05,

I have no ideea how to play after the check/raise on the turn.

Villain is 56/6 in 17 hands, probably a fish. So I think that I may be ahead most of the times against an overpair. Also against trips I have 14 outs, and against straights 9 outs. And against a flush 7 outs for the best hand. And only 2 outs against a boat.

How would you play?

3 replies

VzLOM

Joined: 23.12.2007

Posts: 485

05.10.2010, 09:34 0

i would kill for stats and reads here.
But wo them ...its hard
He rarely have Fh here so i think we can either call of shove.
I dont think he have much bluffs here but i dont see many reasons in calling - we will cal any river anyway and will give our stack to fh, to straight and flushes on blank river. Also 4th :club: could scare him if he doesnt have any single :club:

Bierbaer

Joined: 27.05.2005

Posts: 4,656

05.10.2010, 09:36 0

Bet $12 on the flop for value.

On the turn I'd also bet $27 for value.

To figure out what the best option is I went from a 60% range (I took his VPIP +- a few %) and deselected all hands he'd give up.
This is the remaining range: 33+,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc9c,Kc8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,K5s,Kc2c,QcJc,QcTc,Qc9c,Qc8c,Qc7c,Qc6c,Q5s,Qc2c,JcTc,Jc9c,Jc8c,Jc7c,Jc6c,J5s,Jc2c,Tc9c,Tc8c,Tc7c,Tc6c,T5s,9c8c,9c7c,9c6c,95s,8c7c,8c6c,85s,7c6c,75s,64s+,54s,A5o,K5o,76o

Basically a lot of flushes, any overpair and some 5x.
He probably doesn't c/r all 5x and overpairs all the time, so I took some of the hands out and stoved:
Board: 5c 4c 3c 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.826% 38.38% 00.44% 1520 17.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 61.174% 60.73% 00.44% 2405 17.50 { QQ+, 66-33, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, K5s, Kc2c, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, Qc6c, Q5s, Qc2c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, Jc6c, J5s, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, T5s, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 95s, 8c7c, 8c6c, 85s, 7c6c, 75s, 64s+, 54s, 76o }

So imo we can call the turn.

The plan is to fold any non- :club: river - I don't expect him to shove non-flush hands too often so sometimes we might even get a free SD and win.

Btw assuming he checkraises all overpairs there is not good imo. 56/6 fish are loose/passive - they don't checkraise their medium overpairs for thin value.
So his range is weighted towards stronger hands, therefore this is a call for oods&outs.

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_Anonymous_

05.10.2010, 09:49 0

Thanks for the feedback, it really makes sense.

Villain called and showed 57 of ♥

[Closed] NL100 FR Overpair vs mini c/r T