[Closed] PLO100 SH Rush 8h7s9d5d

You're in position on this flop against a coordinated hand in his top 10%. More importantly though he cbets the flop half the time, so if it had completely missed him, he is probably check/folding or check/calling this flop.

We have 12 outs to the nuts, and 0 showdown equity and are 200 bets deep in position. This is a great spot for a float on the flop, if the flop was rainbow I would say go ahead and raise this flop, but with the 2 hearts it allows our opponent to play back at us with a wider range of hands. (AAxx no flush draw might not be happy about shoving this flop, but with a flush draw it's an insta shove).

We're in position, let's go ahead and use this position to call the flop and reconsider on the turn. If I thought opponent had a flush draw, I would also be flatting this flop with 2 pair, maybe even a set (for balance reasons) as well as draws like this so that opponents have to barrel again into us on the turn, which when 200 bets deep isn't a good proposition.

Anytime you find yourself out of position with aces, and flop a flush draw 200 bets deep, it's awesome to be able to shove this flop, as you often aren't doing that badly (only losing to a set). We should be looking to force our opponent to playing out of position on multiple streets given his cbet on the flop makes up half of his 3 betting range so I expect him to have a piece of it (he doesn't just blindly cbet OOP)

On this board I believe I am calling the flop bet and calling the turn bet and probably giving up on the river since I don't expect a bluff to ever work here (Villain probably check/calls this river to induce bluffs off busted draws, since our opponents will percieve our range is never 2 pair or a set on this flop after flatting generally, so the 4 pairing isn't scary at all).

Originally posted by Ribbo
More importantly though he cbets the flop half the time, so if it had completely missed him, he is probably check/folding or check/calling this flop.

Why just half the time?
His total cbet is 79%, in 3bet pot 100%.
I think he is cbeting every time on this not so dangerous flop.

Originally posted by alicenorbie

Originally posted by Ribbo
More importantly though he cbets the flop half the time, so if it had completely missed him, he is probably check/folding or check/calling this flop.

Why just half the time?
His total cbet is 79%, in 3bet pot 100%.
I think he is cbeting every time on this not so dangerous flop.

Sorry, looked at wrong stat by mistake. Someone cbetting 100% is even more reason to call rather than raise. Forcing your opponent to barrel on multiple streets with any 4 cards is much better than letting him know on the flop you've hit a piece of it.

I have 38% against AAxx with a flush draw, 50% against set, 58% against 2 pair. Overall: 40%
This is 30% of his hands.

0.7*36.7+0.3*0.4*222-0.3*0.6*224=12.01

I think +12 EV$ is the worst case, it would be just better.

This is a simple +EV line.
If i just call i can fault more easily on the other streets with a 0 showdown equity hand.
Why is this good for me?

1. You balance your range by calling. Let's say the player slows down on the turn with complete air, well now you can just call all flops and if he gives up bet 100% of your hands on the turn. If he bets again then you know he has something and a flop raise against those hands would have been futile.
Basically you put money in when you do have fold equity (when opponent checks turn) and you save your money when your opponent is not folding (of which you will never be favourite since you have 0 showdown equity and have to hit your straight).

2. You don't counter aggression with more aggression, you counter it by forcing your opponent to play out of position on multiple streets. Shoving is what he wants, as it allows him to play perfectly against you and not make mistakes being OOP.

3. EV doesn't really come into it when you're in position because on the turn the equity will skew heavily in either your or his favour, and that's to the benefit of the player in position as you will put less money in when behind and more money in when ahead.