[Closed] 1 hand NL 100$ - freeplay- straight draw

You explained it well. Good, I like it.

I'm against this play.

Middle pair with OESD has only 10 outs minus 3 flush outs. We can assume that we have only about 8 outs. It's CF flop.

Turn is also no good. You need two callers to justify your outs, but, for example, if after you someone with overpair call, flush draws will have right pot odds to call and you have only 7 outs then and need one more caller. Flush draws also can call, hoping for more callers and implied odds from them. Then it's CF turn of CC minibet on turn.

Fold equity against 4 players with the bet this size I'd put around zero, but looks like this one is exeption.

nice point !

if I get 2 callers (overpair and FD) my pot odds are 4:1, so 20% of equity required. I know ist quite hard to simulate 5way flop, but nevertheless:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 47.614 % 47.614 % 0.000 % 52.386 % 8h8d
Player 2: 16.675 % 16.675 % 0.000 % 83.325 % 5h5c
Player 3: 35.711 % 35.711 % 0.000 % 64.289 % JsTs

So in the worst case scenario its -EV, however, I think on this board I have some fold equity against overpairs and top pairs, because of an Ace and 2 suited board. I don`t think BB or MP2 are calling here with pairs. They could had aces thoug... anyway, I don`t think it`s that bad, but very marginal, here I have to agree...

No, it's not margnal, it's totally -EV. After 4 callers on flop aces or sets are very likely, especially sets with this flop. There is really too much hands that can call us and I still think that FE is zero.

Maybe not zero, but definitely not enough to cover difference between 20% and 16.675%. Also two callers is not worst case, the worst case is one caller with set or overpair.

Originally posted by Eyeshield77
No, it's not margnal, it's totally -EV. After 4 callers on flop aces or sets are very likely, especially sets with this flop. There is really too much hands that can call us and I still think that FE is zero.

well, I don`t think we can figure it out, because if we start putting them on different ranges my equity is likely to increase for 1-2%. Anyway, I agree that probably I shouldn`t play it against unknow opponents.

As I said, the worst case is when you have an answer only from Aces or overpair.

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 77.273 % 77.273 % 0.000 % 22.727 % 8h8d
Player 2: 22.727 % 22.727 % 0.000 % 77.273 % 5h5c

With aces it's the same.

For this situation you need equity 25%.

Well, looks like it's not really that bad as I thought about it.

But about "increase on 1-2%". You must know, that differentce between 20% and 16.675% is not 3.325%, it's 16% (=3.325/20 * 100%) and this gap FE in this case can't make through.