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[Closed] 20+2 s&g, AA postflop, not a dangerous board

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$20+$2 Hold'em No Limit

Seat 1: SB (1285 in chips)
Seat 2: BB (1195 in chips)
Seat 3: UTG+1 HERO (1685 in chips)
Seat 4: UTG+2 (2240 in chips)
Seat 5: MP1 (1080 in chips)
Seat 6: MP2 (1505 in chips)
Seat 7: MP3 (1425 in chips)
Seat 8: CO (1455 in chips)
Seat 9: BU (1630 in chips)

HOLE CARDS
Dealt to HERO [A:c A:d]
HERO: raises 60 to 90
UTG+2: folds
MP1: calls 90
MP2: folds
MP3: folds
CO: folds
BU: calls 90
SB: folds
BB: folds

FLOP [6:d 9:h Q:d]
HERO: bets 240
MP1: folds
BU: raises 300 to 540
HERO: ?


7 replies
chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007

reraise all-in to protect against the flushdraw. and bad luck if he has a set.

i've seen people make this play with TPTK, so it's -EV if you fold here


cobby
Joined: 14.09.2007

No, i don't see why he should raise with a flush draw(exception JT, see below), especially, when you have the ace.
I guess there're some sensible scenarios:
1. He's holding some kind of middle to high pair (small pair 6< is more unlikely, but is also possible, because he was on the button)
2. He has sth like AQ, KQ, QJ ... and has now a top pair with nut/high kicker
3. He's holding JT in diamonds, thus he has so many outs that raising would make sense.
4. He interpretes your bet as a continuation bet and tries to steal the pot..

Nevertheless i would allocate the probabilities sth. like that:
10% bluffing + 50% AQ/AK + 40% trips

AQ/KQ/QJ.. gives you a chance of about 90% to win (calculated that he has about 3-4 outs left; either another of the two queens, or an average of maybe another king/gutshot straight card...) --> 90% you win in 50% = 45%win

When he holds trips you actually can only win, by making A trips, which is:
2 outs => ~8,5%; Now the assumed probability of 40% that he holds trips X 8.5% = ~3,3%

Now you add the winning probabilities together: 10% + 45% + 3,3% = ~ 60%.
Of course with AA you can't throw your hand away, especially if he offers you sth like 2:1 odds.
With 60% winning probabilite i would also raise, just to define my hand.
As you only have left about 1400 - his raise = ~ 1000 the allin raise seems reasonable, otherwise you would be crippled. Nevertheless, if he has the trips, good luck. But the percentage is with you

Rofl, that was kinda too thorough :)


wow, that calculation doesn't make sense to me at all...


cobby
Joined: 14.09.2007

but you won't tell me why?
On what would you base your decisions on, if not on mathematics?
Poker is game of wagering which uses cards to construct this situations, so maths is a pretty good aide, i guess.


drachdudek
Joined: 06.11.2007

All-in :)

In the beginning of SNGs AA and KK is all-in.The scared money is not a good money...

Drach


Originally posted by cobby
but you won't tell me why?
On what would you base your decisions on, if not on mathematics?
Poker is game of wagering which uses cards to construct this situations, so maths is a pretty good aide, i guess.

I would not base my decision on math here, because the flop is not dangerous enough. I wanted to know how to get the most money in the pot here, without taking unnecessary risks. AA is not foldable in 20+2 sg imo...


Unam
Joined: 17.08.2006

If you think you can't fold AA on the 22s, then there is nothing to talk about this hand, insta shove here, you have to protect here, and in the cases you are against a set, you will go broke.