[Closed] 3$rTop set on river, completed flush

Don't really like the flop slowplay tho it's not terrible. Noone folds overpair at this limit, and neither does noone fold flushdraw pretty much. If you raise to 2k BTN ould still even call with FD imo or just spazz out so its not like you lose value - and by calling you just price him in. Plus if MP2 has overpair and flush comes on turn he can get away. All in all I just think ch/rai flop has the most merit.

As played on river I think fold is right. After he calls twice I'm pretty much narrowing his range to only draws - either AdXd where X is overcard, or some kind of werid pair + FD or combodraw which they just can't let go of. So I think ch/folding is ok. Guess on turn he can still have overpairs, but he likely doesn't turn them into bluff on river so your play is fine imo.

Id consider raising 2.5x preflop - we would prefer to isolate the preflop raiser, as 99 is not very good against potentially 4 ops (btn + blinds).

And on river you must add 56 into his range, which also got there and he might've check-called with.

p.s. how far is it until money? if its another couple hours, then Id actually consider to gamble and call here.

Originally posted by dubadal
p.s. how far is it until money? if its another couple hours, then Id actually consider to gamble and call here.

Gambling to win against what?

Originally posted by amplifyd

Originally posted by dubadal
p.s. how far is it until money? if its another couple hours, then Id actually consider to gamble and call here.

Gambling to win against what?

over or mid pair, lower set, 2p, busted straight (least likely or maybe even 2 overs). I definitely am pro fold here in 90% of cases, if we don't have reads.

But if opp feels that he cannot win at showdown, then shoving is his only option really. If he did hit a flush, then in most cases a 30%ish value bet might make more sense.

Originally posted by dubadal

Originally posted by amplifyd

Originally posted by dubadal
p.s. how far is it until money? if its another couple hours, then Id actually consider to gamble and call here.

Gambling to win against what?

over or mid pair, lower set, 2p, busted straight (least likely or maybe even 2 overs). I definitely am pro fold here in 90% of cases, if we don't have reads.

But if opp feels that he cannot win at showdown, then shoving is his only option really. If he did hit a flush, then in most cases a 30%ish value bet might make more sense.

2 pair combo is so unlikely on this board we can disregard it imo.

Set is so unlikely - even fish don't normally play this passively - plus can use combo argument again.

Overpair is there - but tbh I would expect most players in 3r to just check behind - and even if he does its a very small few combos like TT/JJ only.

Tbh I think this a fold 100% of the time. I think if you make the call its -EV and you also create no edge in that sometimes worse player cannot fold set and will check/call.

By the odds we have to be good >22% of the time - and since micro players love sooted so much - I think if you add up all combos we beat in his (estimated) range vs when we are beat I wouldn't even expect to get the right price.

Interesting thing about this though is then its +EV to ch/call non diamond rivers