it seems abs ridiculous to me, unless Jungle/DIH are involved (which is very unlikely) that he is not an exceptional player of poker. He had a tight connection to prolly ~20 of some of the best NLHE plrs in the world. He had been discussing strategies, hand history reviews, talke real time in skype w so many.. I can tell u from my coaching/teamviewer analysis exp, that to tell a diff betw NL400 BE plr and just NL1k winner doesnt take more than a few hands. The diff of understanding in close spots, the estimation of ranges and results of handcombo calculations are so much more precise and quicker by a higher stake plr. It is abs NOT possible that Jungleman and other wouldnt tell if he was just a midstakes plr within minutes!
At the argument abt his gains/losses:
Again: he didnt have much money as of present at all. DIH is informing us that he was experiencing of his 1st bigger downers of his life + he had so little cash coz of the scam of the uncle and the house bying, he had been staked to play NL2-5k by Jungleman and DIH. The alleged conversation is even such that after some more unluck, Girah is being adviced by DIH NOT to play even NL5k for a while.. Girah was out of money.
Now try to step into the shoes of Girah:
u re 20yo, just finished highschool, image of a rockstar in his country and worldwide in a pokercommunity. U re starting to gain an image for the brightest poker mind of possibly all time since Stu Ungar and 2 of the worldclass poker plrs are abt to move into ur house in 1 month to make this a perfect dream scenario.
Or is it?
Now imagine, u ve been used to play up to NL40k and are now bounded by debt of staking, u run rly bad and its killing u, u re not experienced enough to handle it (comon- he playes poker for 2y!), u know this is an opportunity of a lifetime though. He can become a legend forever, or Jungle/DIH can just come, be dissapointed after seeing he is playing NL1k or 2k and maybe leave soon (not saying they would- but he would imo think that they would).
I think psychologically this makes just so much sense. He in fact does NOT have that much to lose. 1, he has already achieved more than 20y older guys in his country- he has a nice big house and therefore has covered his main expenses for a lifetime pretty much. 2, he is still young and carelless, he is not committed to poker by any means. He can go and study uni or what not, do anything, travel. He has not yet gained any sort of authority in the field as Jungle/DIH have had. 3, It's very unlikely he can judge the levels to which the crime will be taken aka: will he be sued to Portuguese police or Europol and taken to the court? Seems (at least to me) like online poker is so much detached from RL - i think it's highly unlikely he considers the gratitude of his act seriously. 4, as 3, applies, he can as well return to poker no problem after a while, ofc his face was revealed now (wonder why Isildur kept it secret for so long, fscammer lol ♦) , so highly unlikely he ll ever be able to sign pro-contracts, but should he rly care? As his character is widely described as perfectionist and a person who loves to compete at any costs, imo: He didnt lose much rly now.
To put it plainly his risk/reward ratio was this:
A, be a legend forever, become an undisputed authority in online poker scene AND earn maybe hundreds (possibly mms) of thousands $ while living w DIH/Jungle and just live his rockstar lifestyle to the fullest.
or B, lose reputation, lose contacts for a while, but lose hardly any money (maybe gain some?-scamms Jungle/DIH), maybe in 1y (maybe months) return to the online poker world under other name, still discuss strategies, earn a lot of money or just go to uni.. w/e, he is young and free (?!
) (therefore his opportunity cost of NOT playing nosebleeds when the pokerhouse starts and lose credibility in the eyes of Jungle/DIH and other nosebleeds plrs is imo bigger than him being revealed a scammer of few "far less" important ppl)
This theory is also supported by how quickly he was ready to give up poker (which also totally shocked DIH by his own words in his blog), when questioned by his "friends" in the skype group. I think, he made up his mind before going to do all this, that this was way too important of a step of his potential nosebleeds carreer and what he was rly going to give up for it.
And yea, its also possible that he is the one "looking for the Portuguese prodigy". Makes perfect sense he wanted to gain the limelight quick, to gain the attention of nosebleeds plrs quicker, but again, it would be totally paranoid now to question ALL of his successes now. Reports can be cheated, his image in 2+2 forums can be cheated, but u just dont cheat top20 plrs in the world who study this game for years day in day out into believing some random BE midstakes plr- that just simply is not possible at all.
I think he should be legally pursuited and sentenced to 2-5y, as his crime is way too serious and goes way outside of the boundaries of online poker and breaches many principles of our society, but tbh i think the whole image of online poker in the world doesnt allow for this and he is likely to flee unscathed. Maybe his house should be confiscated at least.. lol.