Nut flush-draw + gutshot on the flop, got raised and now…

Joined: 25.04.2010

17.08.2011, 16:16 0

This guy was a HUGE calling station, AF 0.8, c-bet flop around 20%. He had to have at least a naked set of QQQ here, as I had many of the good flush-draw outs.

I think I was flipping with him here if I shoved. Should I engage in such play? I thought that I would eventually have better spots, so I folded.

IPoker Network $10.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 1410809
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $12.86
UTG: $4.60
MP: $1.85
Hero (CO): $11.06
BTN: $11.60
SB: $12.13

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with T♣ 6♠ K♣ A♣
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, BB calls $0.35, MP calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.40) Q♥ 9♣ 5♣ (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.80, BB raises to $3.80, MP folds, Hero folds

Final Pot: $3.00
BB wins $2.80
(Rake: $0.20)

It's all about the long run...

3 replies

Kyyberi

Coach

Joined: 09.07.2010

Posts: 11,655

17.08.2011, 18:06 0

You need 33% immediate odds for call. With nfd+gutshot, you are going to make nuts at about 20% of turns. If you call, the pot will be $9 and you have $6,81 behind. Opponent will not fold his set on turn.

So, do we have enough of implied odds? 80% of time we will just fold turn (unless opponent makes something stupid like check his set etc.). And on 20% of time we will get the money in with about 75% equity.

To justify our 20% equity call for $3 we would need to win a pot of $15 when we hit. The pot is $9 plus what we will WIN on river. That is $6,81. Total of $15,81. Now remember that our equity is not 100% when we hit. If it would be, then a call would be slightly +EV. But as we have only 75% equity when we hit (opponent might fill his boat) that call would be -EV as we can't get enough of implied odds if we hit our hand.

At first I thought that implied odds are enough, but they aren't. Good fold.

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blackops888

Joined: 25.04.2010

Posts: 502

17.08.2011, 18:25 0

Originally posted by Kyyberi
You need 33% immediate odds for call. With nfd+gutshot, you are going to make nuts at about 20% of turns. If you call, the pot will be $9 and you have $6,81 behind. Opponent will not fold his set on turn.

So, do we have enough of implied odds? 80% of time we will just fold turn (unless opponent makes something stupid like check his set etc.). And on 20% of time we will get the money in with about 75% equity.

To justify our 20% equity call for $3 we would need to win a pot of $15 when we hit. The pot is $9 plus what we will WIN on river. That is $6,81. Total of $15,81. Now remember that our equity is not 100% when we hit. If it would be, then a call would be slightly +EV. But as we have only 75% equity when we hit (opponent might fill his boat) that call would be -EV as we can't get enough of implied odds if we hit our hand.

At first I thought that implied odds are enough, but they aren't. Good fold.

Agreed.

It's all about the long run...

Ribbo

Joined: 25.06.2010

Posts: 6,151

18.08.2011, 00:59 0

Nothing to add really. :f_biggrin:

[Closed] Nut flush-draw + gutshot on the flop, got raised and now what?