Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
SB ($0)
BB ($44.69)
UTG ($25.42)
UTG+1 ($4)
Hero ($20.60)
BTN ($43.51)
Dealt to Hero J♦ J♥
fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.60, fold, fold, BB raises to $2, Hero calls $1.40
FLOP ($4) 2♣ 2♠ 5♠
BB bets $2.60, Hero calls $2.60
TURN ($9.20) 2♣ 2♠ 5♠ Q♥
BB checks, Hero bets $4.40, BB raises to $9, Hero calls $4.60
RIVER ($27.20) 2♣ 2♠ 5♠ Q♥ 6♥
BB bets $31.09 (AI), Hero calls $7 (AI)
17/14/3.3
3bet vs steal in BB 13
cbet 74
cbet turn 56 (9)
hands 698
On turn this is perfect card for him to 2nd barrel but he decided to give up. I don't believe he has Q so I bet and it might easily look that I am floating. Now he decides to raise - I think - he thinks I am floating, so he raises, so I can call.
But if he is smart he could c/r for value as well with made hand - because he is almost guarantied that I will float if he checks, and if he bets himself, he will force weak hands to fold.
Now on river - if I didn't believe he has Q, I had to call I guess, but I guess this is a fold, because if his bluff didn't work on turn, he should give up. Only one reason to call - to see what does he have and take a note. But its litte bit expensive - still 30 BBs when we know we are 99% beat.
So the conclusion would be - no need to bet turn, becuase I turn my hand into a bluff? If I know that he could try to rebluff me then ok to bet turn.
What do you think about my thinkingss?