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AJo 60$ 6m vs reg

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PetChoveka
Joined: 14.02.2010

BU is reg 26/21/9.3 with 62% fold to cbet for 2k hands filtered for 6m

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $50(BB) Replayer
SB ($910)
BB ($945)
Hero ($1,990)
UTG+1 ($1,315)
CO ($2,455)
BTN ($1,385)

Dealt to Hero J♠ A♣

Hero raises to $112, fold, fold, BTN calls $112, fold, fold

FLOP ($299) J♦ 2♥ 9♣

Hero bets $175, BTN calls $175

TURN ($649) J♦ 2♥ 9♣ J♥

Hero bets $325, BTN calls $325

RIVER ($1,299) J♦ 2♥ 9♣ J♥ 5♦

Hero checks, BTN bets $773 (AI), Hero calls $773

Pre is std.

On the flop i make it a bit bigger, what should the size here be like?

On the turn i think i pretty much have nuts and he is not that likely to believe me that i have J. Also if he has J he is so going broke. What about the turn bet sizing?

After he calls 2 streets and all the draws missed i dont think i can make much worse hands to call a shove here and think that if i check i`ll give him a chance to blow his stack off with some junk or draw he called with. Anyway if he has a J he will bet it so i dont miss value out of that. What do u think should i shove the river or check it?


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elfigus
Joined: 12.08.2008

on the flop halfpot it's ok, if he is a reg he will not have QT in his range so we are already beaten against 22 99 or he has something like 10-15% equity

on the river it depends, with TT he will be capable of betting after your check?

To me his range is polarized between 22 99 66 77 88 TT and sometimes QQ/KK/AA (the only J that he can have is AJ and at least JT)and I think he will check behind most of his low made hands and sometimes even TT QQ KK AA, so I prefer a shove here also to increase my 3barrelling range (sometimes maybe he will herocall us with a small pp even if is not so probable)


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PetChoveka
Joined: 14.02.2010

I dont see much pps 33-88 in his range for calling 2 streets here. I agree with the TT and QQ+ and i think he will most likely go broke with them on the river too. When i think about it he couldnt have a lot of hands here. What do u think he can hero call with if he doesnt have that much 33-88 in his range that he wouldnt bet? What u think he would bet but he is not going to call with?


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cbet is fine, you would cbet your air on this board so cbetting TPTK for balance is fine.

you want to try and rep the most air possible on the turn/river . the turn is not a good 2 barrel card for you because hes going to continue with mid pairs. so if you did have something like AK you would just c/f . so i would start by checking the turn to rep a c/f .

then i would eval whether to c/c or c/r based on his sizing. if he bets small i might for for a small click c/r to induce. why would we c/r the nuts ? because it would really make him think, wtf ? if he had a J why would he c/r . the turn c/r looks super bluffy so hes just going to call down or spaz 3bet so often IMO . (this is assuming he has a clue). you dont have to make it big, just click. if he bets big on the turn i would be more likely to just c/c because our click raise over a big turn bet looks much more scary.

i would just jam river, i think he checks back too much SD value. mid pairs etc...


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