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Turn and river play

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Gothicrow
Joined: 15.11.2010

Hi

The opponent in 120 hands is a 26/20 AF 3, cbet flop 60%, cbet turn 67%

Do you bluff that river??

The reason why I called the turn was to bluff the river if a straight or flush hit. Is this plan ok against this kind of opponent?.

If I can´t bluff profitable, may be it´s better to just fold preflop lol.

Thanks!

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players

BTN: $207.30 (414.6 bb)
SB: $169.38 (338.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $50 (100 bb)
MP: $17.14 (34.3 bb)
CO: $50 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A♠ T♥ 7♣ Q♠
2 folds, BTN raises to $1.25, SB folds, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.75) 7♥ Q♣ 4♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.75) 9♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

River: ($14.75) 8♣ (2 players)
Hero ???


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4 replies
my49cents
Joined: 02.12.2011

what about c/r flop?

44 is quite unlikely, so is 77 and you even block one 7. And you block one Q -> Q7 is very likely the best hand


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Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

Checkraising this flop full pot is clearly the best play yes.

As played check/fold the river, villain isn't betting a worse hand if you check and isn't folding a better hand if you bet. Just check the river and hope he checks behind.


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Gothicrow
Joined: 15.11.2010

Hi Ribbo.

I was unsure about ch/r the flop, but now I see that against his range of shove I have almost 40% equity, and he is folding a lot to check/raise, so this play is profitable with 100 BB.

Now, as played, why is this a bad bluff?

I'm asking because if this is a bad bluff; then, is this line good to play with draws and bet big on the river if it hits?

Thanks!

PD: I hope to write in a manner understandable in English, if not, please correct me :f_biggrin: thanks again!

Regards.


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Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

I don't think villain folds a better hand that often on this river, so I don't see how a bluff will be that successful. There are a lot of drawing hands in villains range given his smallish flop bet. I don't see him having a set on the turn as it's a super draw heavy board and he didn't bet full pot.

I think he shows up with a strong draw a lot on the turn, his line to me says standard cbet on the flop and semi bluff on the turn so I imagine on the river he will be quite polarised, either checking back his bluffs since every draw hit on the river and he has to think you have something, or he bets again if he hit a draw.


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