Probably the best plog in the world

Except in elevator you often know which direction it should be going.

Could be better, could be worse. Good news is, my balance hasn't dropped. Bad news is, it doesn't go up either.

Having a rough run versus call happy and aggro players. As usual. Lost a lot of big pots where they just get rewarded after bad calls or bad bluffs on the next street. I am not sure how often I have said this in my blog. Probably 50x times.

All of you who play PLO knows the story. You have a strong hand on the turn and bet or raise big, opponent calls and spikes weird 2 outer on the river. Or you flop good in 3bet/4bet pot vs aggro, who has hit the nuts with really crappy hand. Or you have JJ on AAJ flop versus maniac, who just happens to have that AA despite 30%+ 3bet range.

But as said, bankroll is almost the same as it was a while ago when I cashed out. And good thing is that there have been a lot of spots where I SHOULD have folded, but just didn't believe opponents. Despite having notes "doesn't really bluff rivers". Someday I might learn to do it.

And I need to put a note to my wall that says "4bet without reads is ALWAYS AA!". Cos my AKKx hands seem to get 4bet insanely often, and I insanely often think that the A blocker means something.

One month ago I cashed out to buy new electric barbeque grill. Grill is good, cashout triggered runbad (as always). Now, a month later, I am finally climbed back up to the amount of bankroll I had after the cashout. Feels like winning a championship! It`s also a month away form starting my summer grind. Now the real problem is that I need to cashout again. Can I beat the system by cashing out, then playing a little for a month (to get over it) so I can start my summer grind when the next runbad is over? Or should I beat the system by playing a lot for few days, and then cashout? To make money before the runbad?

Poker is a timing game.

Or just run good and crush the whole time :-)

System beats me. As soon as I started talking about withdrawal, got over -10 buyin downswing on couple of sessions.

Pokersite 2
Kyyberi 0

Finally these goes my way!!!!!

Also, have to give BIG credit for GG Poker support. I received an email that my account was logged in from Mac, which I do not even own. I was in a place where internet was really bad and I didn't have GG Poker installed. I tried to install it, but it just didn't work as when starting for the first time it loads a ton of updates. When I finally got it and tried to log in (to see what damage the hacker had done) I got a message that my account was frozen for suspicious activity. I got an email from GG Poker support for security measures I need to take, and after that my frozen balance would unlocked. Their actions saved me a lot of money.

And yes, I now have 2FA authentication enabled. And I have that for most sites anyway.

Originally posted by Kyyberi

I have also tightened my 3bet range a little. Not sure how +EV it is, but it has been +lifeEV for sure. As 3bet pots are the variance creators, and variance is my only real opponent. And the FE postflop is quite low in 3bet pots, so 3betting marginal hands (that gain value from FE on the flop) isn't even as +EV they would be in tighter pool. As we add the fact that getting value postflop is not an issue there, I have found that it suits me quite well.

Versus opponents that underfold to PF 3bets, Solver likes to tighten up it's 3betting range too. I'm not sure how +EV it is but solver basically chooses to put about 1/3 of it's three betting range into it's calling range (BU rfi vs BB). Definitely less variance though.

Yes, and especially oop. Pretty much hands that gain most value from the fold equity, like Axxx with lower cards.

Hmmh. The picture on above post doesn't work. It was a straight flush vs quads. Opponent made quads on the turn, I made a straight flush. I shoved river for half a pot, and opponent slowrolled with his call. His quads were the 3rd nuts, but still...

At November this blog is 10y old. That's a long time.

Ghaleon posted in his blog about a nasty downswing. Same here. As soon as I cheered for straight flush vs quads, poker gods decided to teach me a lesson. Lost twice with nut flush to straight flush, three times with nut boat to quads and got money in deep with nuts and good redraws just to find opponent had nuts with dominating redraws. And the usual stretch of people making bad calls and hitting those runner runners and 2 outers quite often.

It's not that bad though, bankroll seems to stay at certain level due to rakeback and pots where people don't hit their miracles. But it makes me wonder if I should tone down my bluffs even more?

Examples from yesterday:

Flop is 875ss and I raise opponents cbet on the flop. He calls with AJ32, no flush draw.

Flop is T87ss in 3bet pot, I 3bet pre. I cbet half a pot, turn is K and I pot. River is T, opponent had dry KK.

Flop is 976ss, I have T987 and raise flop. Opponent calls. Turn is J, I pot and he calls. River is 9, I check call. Opponent had J943.

Flop is TT8ss, I raise flop. Opponent calls with AJ65r.

And those are different opponents. When people call flop raises with nothing, it makes me re-think about bluffing. I have marked several players in the pool with a note "DO NOT BLUFF!!!!". Value poker should work, but lately they just hit the boards too well.

Although without those nasty bad beats the winrate would have been very good this week. Lets keep on grinding!

Just wanted to pop in and say hi. You wont believe how happy i am to found you guys here after a year of wandering alone in finnish poker desert! It's so cool to find some small stakes scenery or any scenery.. ♠_love:

Actually Kyyberi, I have been thinking about you few times lately. I think I ship some pm your way near future about coaching.

Hi Joeplotter, Just wanted to say, that I have attended Kyyberis coaching class, and I think it's great.

Bankroll challenge, second round, let's go!

Started today, although I didn't play as much as on average I am planning to. Had to do some stuff earlier. Results are fine, little loss on games but little profit with rakeback. Lost few big pots when active players managed to get the nuts vs my 2nd nuts and so on. On the other hand, I got some donations like opponent calling 752ss pot cbet on 4bet pot flop with dry QQ 200bb deep and then stacking off on 2 turn. He had 2 outs, quess he wasn't a believer.

It's a shame that I can't get hand histories easily. I am too lazy to import them from the site, then to tracker and then finding hands for posting. But there was one spot that caught my eye:

K99 flop, I am on the BTN and opponent is at BB. He donks pot on the flop, I have A9xx. Probably should just call, I clicked it back to get max from 9xxx. As that is what pot donk looks like to me. Or it's a bluff, and in the pool donk bluffs on locked boards are almost always one-and-done (curious thing is that there are multiple players donking locked boards now). Anyway, he calls, turn is a blank and it's checked through. River is a blank and he pots. And I wasn't sure what to do.

It's a situation where there are conflicting informations. On the other hand pot donk doesn't sound like a boat on the flop, but on the other hand would he pot trips or low boat on the river? Opponent was somewhat unknown.

He had KK, and I got too greedy on the flop. Still not sure if my estimation to exclude KK/K9 (with high propability) from his range was horrible or valid. If valid, I think river call is somewhat understandable. But still, donking pot with nut boat seems so.... Weird. It's a line that minimizes value. I would have lost a big pot even if he had checked, so it's not about losing the pot. It's about his line, which caught me.

First real day, and it was a horrible start. Has been the same in two previous summers, and it's not that fun.

Losing a lot of 4bet pots, SPR under 1 and opponent hits crappy hands all the times. Can't hit my draws, and quite often my top set is countered by flush draw getting there and opponents donk shoving.

And on top of that the network is lagging. I changed my connection, so it seems that it's in Partypoker end. Timing out on hands so I just stopped playing. I wish tomorrow is a better day.

Almost made a happy post. But last 30min of today changed that. I was up to my original balance from the games, which is the minimum goal (and profit comes from rakeback) for me. Then it was once again crash-boom-bang. Lost 10 buyins in about 15 minutes. Which is quite an achievement as I am using cashout. There were aggro 3bettors all around, and I run hot preflop and got AAxx quite often versus them. Too bad they just kept hitting the flops with all kinds of crap. Couple of times I got top set in 3bet pots, example JJ on J63ss. Thinkin that I am in a good shape. Opponent had 2457ss for max combo draw. Solid 3betting hand...

Few backdoor nut flushes versus my flop nuts and rivered 2nd nut flush, couple of 1 outers on the turn for bigger boat and one straight flush vs nut flush.

Gotta keep grinding. Same mantra again, pool is not outplaying me, they are outhitting me in big pots. In the big picture it's not horrible, as the bankroll (including rakeback) is at breakeven. Without cashout it would be a LOT worse, and I would be a LOT more unhappy.

Two interesting, or not that interesting hands:

My bankroll is not building, it is disappearing into opponents sunrun.

Played a session at afternoon and it was nice. Got site bankroll up to 600, starting bankroll was 700. Evening session was again same old shit. Lost 500 in those few hours, and I felt totally helpless. People just got there with any crap they had. There were two 50bb shortstackers, who both have about 50% 3bet. Sounds profitable, but I lost 9/10 pots versus one of them. If he had Q922, flop was Q99. When he had J844, flop was 4xx. Low SPR situations, mathematically profitable, but painfull to see them playing really crappy hands and getting rewarded constantly.

Also I was totally hammered in 4bet pots. As there were quite a lot of active 3bettors in the pool today, I was able to 4bet AAxx very often. SPR 1, so it's a no brainer to shove most flops. But once again opponents kept hitting. And when I see the hands they 3bet in the first place, it makes me sick to lose 20 buyins in 3 hours. And this has happened almost every day this week. These are the situations where people start to think that the games are rigged. And I am using a cashout, so it's not just "normal" variance.

I am going to take the weekend off from poker, as at the moment I am just thinking "I don't want to play, as they will suckout me anyway".

In the end this week will end up about 200 down after rakeback. I think losing "just" 8-10 buyins is the only positive thing here.

Lol, I played about 10 hands to collect couple points to get the next cashback payjump. This was literally the last hand of this week, and sums it up perfectly.

Flop is 864ss, I have 8765ss for nutstraight, top2 and straight flush oesd. I raise flop, opp calls. I pot turn, opponent calls. River is 4, I check-call and he has naked 84xx. Getting crushed by there 2 outers. I hope next week is different.

Nothing new this week. Right off from the first session got set vs set coolers 6 times for opponent favor, once for my. One aggro had insane timing. He fires turn always if he has anything (pair, gutshot etc.) always when I check back the flop. I raise turn often with semibluffs, and call with good hands as he fires river 100% of times. Too bad that every time I raised he had the nuts, and every time I called he made his 2 or 4 outer crap and I called the river.

Luckbox 3bettor from earlier posts continued his crusade. 3betted me with crap, called 4bet and spiked the flop. AK62r (wtf?!) calling my 4bet and flop is K62, I have AAKQ. And few spots where people call my flop raise with only backdoors on straight boards, calling turn pot with 2 pairs or weak flush draw and making it.

Down, down, down we go. And the shitty part is that those big pots that I lose, opponents are making really bad plays. I should be drowning in EV money, but they just keep getting all the pots. Insanity.

It was quite normal hand until the showdown.

This one bothered me for a while:

He was not a believer:

I suppose you went for small size on river in last hand? It's kind of thin to fire third barrel as quite a few combos make better straight.