Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #38 10.06.12

INteresting. Flop is ok, we have ton of equity vs overpairs.

Now turn might be the problem. If this vilain is not folding overpairs, then they are now 2nd pairs and we get value. But the question is if this nit would call with 2nd pair.
If he has set, he should raise the flop, unless he is passive postflop. So if he is agro and just calling, maybe then he is having overpair and does not want to inflate the pot with the raise. But question is - is he thinking that way? If he likes to slowplay monster on drawy board, the it would be better to check behind, and keep his 2nd pairs and not risk to get raised.

River if we are planning not to fold - then better to bet ourselves imo, I don't expect such player spew bluff on the river. Qustion is what we beat after he bets allin if we don't expect bluffs? A9? Probably he is folding preflop. AJ - he should fold on flop. I think we beat nothing.

First of all the gap between his vp and pfr shows that this nit is also passive.

We can't say that he calls only with pp pre. He can have AK/AQ in his range also for sure, although we can assume he folds most of them on the flop.

So on the turn he might cont with fds, sets, underpairs (as long as he is passive he may not raising sets on the flop). I do not know how many fd are there, but we still can bet for value and I think 1/2 psb is ok.

On the river I think it is a c/f (as long as he shoves) or bet sth like 1/3 psb / fold.
Bc if we block bet we can assume that he never bluff raise us, and if we check we can assume that he never shoves with worse.

Folding on the River (as said in the text) wouldn't be weak against a nitty player.

The villain is very nitty and i don't see him calling preflop with SC (we block a lot of suited broadway combos) than i would go for potcontrol on turn. He shouldn't bluff often there +
He won't call with TT-QQ.

River is as said above c/f because against a nit you should be beaten.

Seems fine to me. He would raise sets with 2 players behind him, so we should be ahead.Nice hand!

ITs an Intersting spot. What is his AF??
I wonder, why he dosnt protect against the flushdraw? But Opinion is, that if he is weaker, he would just call your bet! I dont think, that he is going broke with one Pair, for instance AK, or AQ. It is rather possible, that he has JJ or 99! I would fold!

Hero's reasoning doesn't make sense to me. He puts the nit on pocket pairs for set mining yet says he's betting for value against TT or JJ, ye right, so the nit is gonna call that with an ace showing on the turn? Erm, seriously unlikely imo.
So, hero actually bets turn hoping villain hasn't hit his set and to protect v a flush draw of some sort, lol, we have the nut flush draw, does hero really think the nit will call down a flush draw K-high? And what Kx would he call preflop apart from KK or AK? If not he has a set and and hero is value-towning himself.
If hero narrows his range to only sets on the river why is folding when we are beat weak? Don't get that one.

Ihear a lot of experienced players say go broke top two though so maybe hero should, I don't think so though.
I think we only get value from at best AK and it looks like hero got a dose of the 'Lolz I gotz top two pairz' syndrome and couldn't lay it down.

I don't get this I really don't, it looks like an easy fold to me when villain shoves...maybe it's me that's the nit! ♦

Looking forward to the justification for calling here, interesting one as always.

Hello,

Preflop & Flop are of course pretty standard, wouldn't change much. The idea of CBetting the flop is to gain fold equity of course.

Turn: Like the CB size here, no need to do it much bigger, we want to drag along some weaker PPs and maybe even draws. Cause of the course the guy is a nitty opponent but we have a very small sample size so we can't base only on that. Also it's a good card which we most likely would be 2nd barreling. We ain't gonna get much more value from bluffs anyways unless we assume he is capable of bluffing.
River: As said we don't know much about the opponent, if we had good reads that it's true that we are against a nit then it's the case that we just beat bluffs. Mainly PPs which float also the turn. But some of them he might even Check behind and of course something like JJ did complete actually, QQ is Checking behind, so only reasonable hands might be TT which would turn into bluff.

So depends a lot on the opponent and how we see him, as I would assume we are rather against unknown opponent then bluff-catching shouldn't be even a huge mistake, if we assume we are rather against nitty opponent then it might be true that we don't get value from many worse nor that many bluffs around which he could be bluffing.

Best Regards.