Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #42 08.07.12

At first I assume that UTG never has anything (though he will of course wake up with JJ, KK or 88 once in a while)

My second assumption is that we have no fold equity versus CO (he is kinda committed after his raise)

Because of this, I guess that the first EV calculation gets simple; how much equity do we need?
We bet (effective) $ 3.88 to win, after he calls, $ 5.2
So we need about 43 % equity to break even.

With 30 % VPIP I wouldn´t call him a nit, and if he just has 15 % PFR I dont think he's a normal TAG either, seems a bit fishy to me. But I have been wrong before ( ) and can't say that I'm especially good at interpreting stats.

Versus a range with only monsterdraws and 2 pair+ (I included another 2 pair hand, which I think he deffinitely can have from time to time) You have about 47 % equity, and can therefore shove it in.

sv.pokerstrategy.com

Bräda: K J 8

Equity Vinst Oavgjort
MP2 46.93% 28.95% 17.98% { KdJd }
MP3 53.07% 35.10% 17.98% { 88, KJs, J8s, QcTc, Tc9c, KJo, AcQs }

I think folding is our best option here.

This is the widest range I can put CO on:

Board: KCJC8S
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    44.35%  30.23%  14.12% { KdJd }
MP3    55.65%  41.52%  14.12% { JJ, 88, KJs, J8s, AcQc, AcTc, QcTc, Ac9c, Tc9c, KJo }

But given that this is a family pot I would expect it to have less draws in it, as it really does not make sense to raise even very good draws in a multiway pot like this vs a very strong like Hero's.

Also I think Hero's reading into stats are not the best. 30/15 means a pretty loose player preflop which combined with his very high AF transforms him into a bad aggressive opponent most likely. Even given this I'm still confident that villain is not going to raise many draws 4 way ==> our equity decreases ==> we should fold.

I wouldn't label the opponent as a nitty tag, rather an aggro fish.
We are doing a lot better when not counting the monster draws, because they are so monstrous ♦.

Board: 8♠J♣K♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    58.16%  41.67%  16.49% { KdJd }
MP3    41.84%  25.35%  16.49% { 88, KhJh, KsJs, Jh8h, KhJs, KsJh, Jh8d, Jh8c, Js8d, Js8c }

That's because we are only fearing 88, 3 combos and maybe, just maybe, another combo of JJ :).

Given that he probably wouldn't take his chances with a draw, I think I'd go with the hand.

Hi,
i think he is a aggro Fish.

i give hin following Range on the flop after he raises!

Board: 8♠K♣J♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    69.68%  66.78%   2.91% { KdJd }
MP3    30.32%  27.41%   2.91% { JJ+, 88, AKs, KTs+, AcQc, AcTc, QcTc, Ac9c, Qc9c, Ac8c, Tc8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AKo, KJo+, QTo+ }

A 2 Pair ist often not strong enough against two opponants. But Viallin is an aggro lose player. So he could easy have the given range.
We ne 42,73% Euity and we have 69,68% . For me it is a call!

Well I'll probably talk rubbish as usual, but here goes.

UTG raise - doesn't appear to be considered much in analysis.

CO calls - 30/15 nitty (lol)

BU calls

Hero (sb) calls - why? I gotz odds I calls! [It's not called jack/king off for nothing.]

BB - squeeze? Not considered by hero?

If hero feels call preflop is good, can he then donk/fold? Seems a bit meh to me.

Also, we are considering going broke v loose guy but seem to be forgetting utg called our donkbet and is still in.
How would hero feel getting it in 3 way here?

Personally I would be confident I was up against at least one set and/or a monster draw.

Not happy with that and not knowing what utg may do, the situation sucks and I don't know where I am in the hand, ergo...

...I fold and find a more confident spot.

PF I think it's fine, but if you flop TP, it's hard to get value.
flop: donk is ok, UTG won't cbet much and once he calls we are ahead of his range ( don't think he would call sets here). once aggro CO raises, i think he's range is wide enough for me to go all in. sometimes fish makes crazy, unthinkable moves.

PF fold, I don't think that player who thinks that 30/15 is a nitty can play this hand profitably on SB. We're not even having nutFlush ... => it's gonna be troublesome anyway....

Flop - donking is totally fine, we protect our hand. After CO's raise only hands that beat us are - JJ (1), 88 (3) ... Assuming KK 3bets pre...

=> easy allin....

Hello,

Preflop: It's kinda marginal spot cause often times people tend to start to overplay their hands and not only pairs but maybe even draws. Which also brings to the spot where we most likely wont have very good implied odds, therefore you might even want to fold your hand over calling if you don't have good postflop awareness.

Nor the opponent of course ain't a nit, nitty opponent has different stats, for example 16/14 or something similar. He he is rather a loose opponent who tends to play more hands by just calling and now raising.

As played
Postflop: We have to pay a closer attention here how much we have invested into the pot. Which actually is very small amount. Is it really worth to take the risk, it's obvious that the variance here is going to be huge. But now lets take a look if it is? We would need ~42% equity just for break-even Call, which means even for profit we would of course need higher and something like 45% would be solid. Taken into account he could have something similar like this:

Board: 8♠J♣K♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    54.61%  45.66%   8.95% { JJ, 88, KJs, K8s, J8s, AcQc, AcTc, QcTc }
UTG+1  45.40%  36.45%   8.95% { KdJd }

we do not get the equity, cause we are splitting with most of the KJ hands and our win equity isn't going to be that good. This range might be even optimistic cause we can never be sure if he even raises with draws.

Just cause his AF is 4.5 doesn't mean that he is aggressive, the sample is way too small to take a look into AF here. So for conclusion I would be Bet/Folding the flop.

Best Regards.

i think this one is probably a preflop fold, but when it comes down to the post flop play, i think you are good to just try to get it in with the stuff you have, i won't bother reposting ev charts because people have already done that, but from what i have learnt about poker so far and about micros especially, it would probably be best to avoid calling such a raise pf, as it is a reasonably difficult hand to play post flop and you are against multiple opponents, rather just wait for a better spot and make easier money.

Your friendly neighbourhood fish, Foulkez ♠_evil:

Why does everybody say the call preflop is marginal? With 3 guys already in the pot, 2.5 BB more to be put in I deff think we can play for 2p+ with our hand.

Originally posted by DeMarcohsp
Why does everybody say the call preflop is marginal? With 3 guys already in the pot, 2.5 BB more to be put in I deff think we can play for 2p+ with our hand.

Cause I would assume NL4 players would very often start to overplay their hands. The pot will be very big and then kinda feel committed with their pair.