Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #44 22.07.12

Hallo Guys,
it is a played Hand of mine.

Preflop i give Villain the following Range:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 37.92% 37.40% 0.52% { 22+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, ATo+, KQo }
MP3 62.08% 61.57% 0.52% { TdTc }

The HM Manager marked Villain as UTG, but we know, if we count from the BTN, that his Positon is MP.
So i considerd MP for his Range.
At the Flop i hit my Set and raised to small. I know, but i lost so many Hands in the last time, that i tried to be a tricky player. Shame on me :-)

I think Villain bets the folling range on the Flop:

Board: 7♥6♥T♠
Equity Win Tie
MP2 17.11% 16.60% 0.51% { JJ+, 99-66, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, 6h5h, 5h4h, ATo }
MP3 82.89% 82.38% 0.51% { TdTc }

After he just calls my raise, i exclude 66, 77 from his Range, because he has to protect those Hands.

i assume the following new range:

Board: 7♥6♥T♠
Equity Win Tie
MP2 18.39% 17.92% 0.48% { JJ+, 99-88, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, 6h5h, 5h4h, ATo }
MP3 81.61% 81.13% 0.48% { TdTc }

At the Turn he checkraises me? The question is, with what type of Hands? Maybe Sets,
Overpairs, Draws? I think no.

I give him a new Range. I kept JTs in his Range, because it is possible, that he protects this type of hand.

Board: 7♥6♥T♠ J♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 49.72% 49.72% 0.00% { JJ, JTs, 76s, 9h8h }
MP3 50.28% 50.28% 0.00% { TdTc }

Against his range, we have a coinflip, if we exclude his 2pair, we are crushed!

Board: 7♥6♥T♠ J♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 86.36% 86.36% 0.00% { JJ, 98s }
MP3 13.64% 13.64% 0.00% { TdTc }

The Question is, if Villain is able to play draws 2pairs an smaller sets like this? If yes, than we are ahead!

Board: 7♥6♥T♠ J♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    33.15%  33.15%   0.00% { JJ, 77-66, 98s, 54s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, AhTh, KhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Jh9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h }
MP3    66.85%  66.85%   0.00% { TdTc }

What do you think?
Greetz
Zoty79

Really interesting hand! I'll give it my best (Disclaimer: Use my advice at your own risk, it may cost you substantial amounts of money )

I'll ignore the min raise on the flop

Against his range, we have a coinflip, if we exclude his 2pair, we are crushed!

Why exclude 2 pair? Do you have a more specific read on villain than the stats? The guy is playing pretty loose overall for a standard FR TAG at 16/14, so I don't think we can automatically assume he's going to play optimally. Therefore I wouldn't want to totally exclude overpairs from his range and possibly not sets either.

Clearly he should be protecting his sets on the flop and is more likely than not to get it in with a set, but sometimes people try to be tricky! It could be that he's worried that he might scare you off with 88 or AT or something. Alternatively he might see your min raise as a cheap bluff on his c-bet if he's levelling or thinks he has a read on you and wants to get max value by letting you bet the turn.

He's definitely strong here or thinks he is, but I don't think we can only look at the worst case scenario (I'm sure I've played AA this way in the past and regretted it). Even if we give him just 1 combo each for AA and KK, along with the 2 pairs and take out the lower sets we are still marginally favourite:

Board: 7h6hTsJc
Equity Win Tie
UTG 50.87% 50.87% 0.00% { TdTc }
UTG+1 49.13% 49.13% 0.00% { AdAh, KdKh, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 98s, JhTh, 7d6d, 7s6s, 7c6c }

I give him a new Range. I kept JTs in his Range, because it is possible, that he protects this type of hand.

If we take your range of JJ, JTs, 76s, 9h8h and are very slightly behind then it's still an easy call as, if my calculations are correct, we need around 41% equity for it to be profitable.

By giving him the doomsday range of JJ and 9h8h, you're making assumptions that he is not making mistakes with sets etc. Are you possibly letting the result influence your ranges? I don't think at this limit we can assume he's all kind of awesome and only going to turn up with the nuts here!

TL;DR: My chips are going in!

I agree with cufc37, without an amazing read I'm never folding here.
However, I get the equity needed to just about 30 % (0,2985) ( ) in which case its reallyreally easy to get it in.

Considering the worst case scenario, he has 3 combos of jacks and 4 combos of straights. I dont think this is a realistic range, if he slowplays anything at all its a call/shove.

Originally posted by druidulix
I agree with cufc37, without an amazing read I'm never folding here.
However, I get the equity needed to just about 30 % (0,2985) ( ) in which case its reallyreally easy to get it in.

Considering the worst case scenario, he has 3 combos of jacks and 4 combos of straights. I dont think this is a realistic range, if he slowplays anything at all its a call/shove.

Sorry, you're quite right. Looks like I forgot to include hero's bet in the calculation ~30% is right!

call preflop is ok, since he folds a lot to 3bets and has tight range in this position.

Flop raise bigger, he might have AKs, AQs and hero gives good odds. Also JJ+ continue, he has hith wtsd and low w$sd. Also money from 66-77 while there are not flushdraw copleted and not card like 9.

Turn I think he can have JJ, and I don't see any other, unless he plays that way 66-77. His c/r is big.

But on nl4 there might be various hands even from regs, like AA maybe or KQ. But this is optimistic. But I guess we can fold there, we invested around 1.5$, so can save 2.5 yet. His turn aggression is much lover than on flop.

Edit:
read now other posts. And you give him range like JT? Then yeah, I also stack off. But I would not have thought about JT, even if he plays, he should play ocationally, not always. Ok if we give him KQ, then would he play the turn that agresively knowing that we were agresive on flop?
And if he has KQ, if without FD, he should fold on flop. If he has FD+OESD, he can play that agro, but OESD + FD again is rare case I think.
In conclution, I stack off still now

Villain OpenRaise range; 55+ ATs+ AJo+ KJs+ (KQo)

Villain cbet range;

The villain bets very small, indicating that he is not so happy with his hand and/or does not want to achieve a lot of fold equity. Thus I remove AA KK and most 66 and 77 combo's from his range.

Cbet for "Value"; QQ, JJ, ATs
Autopilot cbet; AJ+ KJs+ KQo

Villains turn Check/Raising range;

A wise man once said "at the micros you just bet/bet/bet and fold when they raise you" but we cannot just automatically look for hands that beat us.

What hands left in his range would villain be very happy to Check/Jam here? JJ K Q :heart:, and maybe he occasionally likes A K if he didn't 3bet flop with it.

Other hands he might try would be KQ and AK without the flush draw, but I somehow doubt that.

Onto villains hand-range;

[B]Scenario 1;

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 19.318 % 19.318 % 0.000 % 80.682 % TT
Player 2: 80.682 % 80.682 % 0.000 % 19.318 % JJ, KhQh

Scenario 2;

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 30.909 % 30.909 % 0.000 % 69.091 % TT
Player 2: 69.091 % 69.091 % 0.000 % 30.909 % JJ, AhKh, KhQh

Scenario 3;

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 42.045 % 42.045 % 0.000 % 57.955 % TT
Player 2: 57.955 % 57.955 % 0.000 % 42.045 % JJ, 7s7c, AhKh, KhQh

Conclusion;

In the first two scenarios we do not have enough equity to go All-In but if the 3rd Scenario is correct we do.

On balance although this looks like an easy shove at first and it seems totally sick to fold I think this may be a time to embrace the Full-Ring nit inside all of us and let it go.

most likely hand is JJ. well, maybe AJhh/QJhh, but i think JJ is slightly more likely. AK etc doesn't play this way very often.

Really interessting discussion ♦
I am going to reveal his hand this Sunday in the coaching
Greetz
Zoty

I think his turn raise indicates something changed for him.
I think it's unlikely he would be making a raise like that on the turn with an overpair.
The turn raise either reduced the chances of him dealing with a flush draw, or gave him a set of JJJ.

His turn bet also indicates he is still afraid of something, probably hearts. So I'd put him on 89s (but not hearts) or JJ. So 50/50 either way.

I don't think it's a good idea to assume your opponent isn't perfect. Sure, he obviously isn't, but I think it smarter to assume he is good until proven otherwise.

The final question is, is he capable of bluffing here? Looking at his postflop aggression, I think this is unlikely.

Also, the hero's flop re raise allowed questionable hands to continue. In this case if it was a more regular sizing, it very likely would have scared off overpairs and especially JJ. Eliminating half of his winning range and definitely making further street decisions easier.

I may be a bit agro I think but we live and learn.
I also think nasty play by hero - [sorry hero] - got him into trouble, as he mentioned, becasue he wanted to trap. Just trapped himself is all.

I 3bet preflop for value v his [slightly looser] opening range and I have position, but also because my hand is vulnerable and I don't want a multiway pot. If I get 4bet from anywhere my fun ends. Calling here is just inviting trouble.

What player types were behind us in the blinds etc, calling stations? Is the BU a 3bettor? And so on.

On the flop I raise it big and get the money in if I can. If he folds, so beit, he either has a hand he likes or not.
As played I still push the turn, easy game. ♦

If he has JJ, nice hand sir, move on.

Hello everyone,

Flop: Raising so small is definitely very bad. You are rather making yourself a mistake by raising this amount. You should clearly go for pot size raise here to protect from any kind of draw on such a wet board.

As played
Turn: I'd end up getting it in. The guy doesn't even look any good. Nor his W$SD ain't good and overall his play just doesn't make much of sense. We can't exclude here from his range 77/66 cause he may easily even "try to trap with them". Nor of course we can't exclude straights but against which we will still have decent equity. I am getting it in while there are a lot of bad players around, maybe even JT is possible in his range right now.

Best Regards.