Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #47 12.08.12

If being rather pesimistic about the villains range and how he plays I would put him on a range like this:

Board: 5♥K♥6♥ J♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    32.95%  32.95%   0.00% { QhQs }
UTG+1  67.05%  67.05%   0.00% { AhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AhQd, AhQc, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AdTh, AhTd, AhTs, AhTc, AsTh, AcTh }

I can't see it would make senseif villain played it another way and I really doubt sets would go broke here?
(I also doubt villain would be bluffing here, and seeing him call makes me doubt it even more)
I think maybe I would have made a stupid call here while playing, but after my analyze it doesn't seem like the smartest moves, however there is a few hands that continue here, but we need alot more equity than we get.

So it seems to me wisest move would be to check river or bet fold?
Just my small 2 cents

editedt because I had a few Qh's in villains range

Preflop/flop I'd play the same way.
On the turn I'd prefer checkbehind, and call/bet river instead. We dont have much value in betting on this board anyway (definitely not two streets), and with checking we use potcontroll and maybe induce some bluffs by the river.
After turn chR, against unknown Villain I think it's a fold.

I'd check behind the turn. We didn't raise on the flop because we assumed we're beat, right? So what's the point in bluffing him of his hand on the turn? Because a K is never calling there. With aditional reads, for example opponent is a nit who's taking this line with exactly 55 and 66 I'd bet and watch him cry ♠_evil:, but I assume that's not the case. On the river I'd just call or make a resonable bet if he checks.

I don't think I would call the flop. Not sure about his range though. What could call pre-flop from the blind and then donkbet on this type of board? Maybe KQ/KJ, 44-55, also AK is possible, or he could decide to do a random bluf although this seems unlikely given the betsize, guess most villains wouldn't do a potsize bluf. You're behind against Kx and sets, and you're implied odds do not look good. You're only beating (semi-)bluffs like AT with A of hearts, but would he call this pre-flop? It seems that knowing nothing about villain is making the hand even more difficult to judge.

On the turn, I think I would bet as well to get value from Kx, KJ and sets that want to blufcatch. Would make it like 60% of the pot to keep ik cheap for him, as he is unlikely to call a big bet with any hand other than a A high flush. If he check-raises the turn on this board, I guess he wouldn't do it on this board without the A of hearts, so I would fold. Checking behind is definetely a possibility as it is unclear whether villain would call with any hand that we are beating.

Curious what the rest thinks, it's really a difficult one.

Hello everyone,

Flop: We definitely overplaying your hand on the flop, we can't Call here cause we most likely ain't going to be ahead a lot of hands which donk here and nor we don't have the implied odds to draw for our FD. Therefore we should be rather folding here.

As played
Turn: Kinda overplayed as well, how many worse hands pay us on the turn? Not many. Therefore Check behind the turn and reevaluate the river.

But as played we can rarely discard from his range A:hX hands cause he can easily donk them this way as well and plan to Check/Raise the turn, you are rarely going to be far-far ahead here. But then again why do you Bet the turn if you don't plan to go broke?

Best Regards.