Originally posted by casadewinna
For increasing activity in this thread I will use the dirty trick of posting very debatable hand
IPoker, $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Hand Details
Preflop: Hero is CO with 4
3
MP raises, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, MP calls
Flop: (7.4 SB)
XXX
(2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls
Turn: (4.7 BB)
X
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls
River: (6.7 BB)
X
MP checks, Hero bets
Board cards doesen't matter.
[/SPOLIER]
:spade:MP is maniac, that opens ~97% from any position.
:spade:He cbets/donkbets any made hand almost always.
:spade:Sometimes he ch/raises, but only with very strong hands.
:spade:His ch/call means weakness.
:spade:Blinds are TAG-players, BU is a little looser.
:spade:Since he just flatted my 3Bet, we can exclude showdown value hands from his range.
:club:He folds to a turn and river bet almost half of his range.
He flat your 3bet, but he could have had some showdown value with Ahi (although he probably wouldn't find it enough). I think that BU and SB don't matter much, since they will almost always cap or fold. BB cold calling 2 bets could be an option, but a very rare one (I know I hardly do that).
With that in mind, and not knowing the board cards (I don't know if you hit anything, although I realize that the other player cannot be put in any range based on his pf action), we can think about this a little bit. I'd analyse it with this game plan:
I'll fold to any x/r (f, t or r)
He can x/f or x/c with 70% of a x/c in t or r (which makes 50% chances of folding overall).
He won't fold to a contibet f
If we get to showdown, we will be beat.
That would be my idea for a purely exploitative strategy, and the only one that would make sense regardless the board cards (Of course, it must be refined and, for instance b/c to a x/r if we have enough outs. To correct this, i'll simply suppose he won't x/r).
We have three situations then:
-Villain folds turn (0.3 probability)
EV= 5BB-2.5BB = 2.5 BB
-Villain calls turn and folds river (0.21 probability)
EV=7BB-3.5BB = 3.5 BB
-Villain goes to showdown (0.5 probability)
EV = -3.5 BB
So EV (gameplan) = -0.265 BB
I realize this looks quite simplified, but it can be a nice idea of what we have. If the final pot is of 7BB, a very little equity of 5% at showdown would give us enough to do this.
Please correct me if anything is wrong