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Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Oh well you were so lucky today when I misclick folded my rockets Tim... After all what else I could 3bet there?

Spoiler :coolface:


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Yeah, that was jolly bad luck there, my friend. You have definitely never 3b me light, ever. Especially not from the button when I'm in the cutoff. I knew it was Aces, ofc, but once the fish overcalled in the bb, I had to jam my QQ for 75bb b/c of all the dead $.

I wonder what we both really had. At least I couldn't have complete air because you never know when the fish snaps off with his mighty trey's...


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Massage this am. Trying to get through to next Wednesday and the doctor's verdict.

Then to the Hyundai dealer to test drive an i30. Pretty nice car considering it's a family hatch... We're gonna have to go with an auto as I just can't manage changing gears any more ;( Need to dwell on colours and then hope they can find s/thing with a low mileage at a price we can manage...

Me and the little one walked down to the offie to pick up some beers for the tennis. She's getting pretty handy on the scooter.

Mackerel fry curry with cucumber salad in the garden, quick but profitable set, and now watching Murray vs Jerzy Somethingowicz. It's been a pretty good day.

tfr
:f_biggrin:


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maythany
Joined: 18.10.2011

Great blog Tim! I skipped all the pages and went straight to the last one when I first visited your blog.

I recently started reading the first few pages and I can relate a lot to the content you have written down on your posts.

It's quite amazing really to start out with nothing, but a few bucks in your account and a dream.

Posting all your adversities and your perseverance through them. Sorry to hear about your left arm (or shoulder? sorry forgot while typing this _cool:), hopefully it isn't something that will require surgery.

I'd love to resume our coaching sessions once I hit the 3.50's for 9 max. The battle at the 1.50's is a battle I must do by myself. I've played that before I made the switch to 6 max so I have experience in that format.

Take Care,

Maythany


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Thanks, buddy :)

Look forward to guiding you through the lowstakes to glory in due course! Wish you luck with cracking the $1.50s - sure you'll have no probs if you keep focussed and grind through the madness!


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

At last had my appointment with the therapy department today. The physio I saw was really clued up and listened to all I had to say. Her diagnosis, following examination, is a probable frozen shoulder following the trauma of falling in the ice back in January/Feb.

I then had a couple of x-rays to eliminate other possibilities. Will get the results in two weeks. If it is a frozen shoulder, I will likely need a surgical procedure to get it moving again...

Feels like a relief to finally have a name for what I got. Gonna have an uncomfortable few months ahead, but hopefully the ball is rolling on some treatment to get better. :)


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Picked up the new(ish) wheels today. Black i30 automatic with cruise and bluetooth and loads of other useless electric shi* that still excites the pants off your author.

Went for a spin in the countryside to some formal gardens after a fab pub lunch. Very smooth ride and it's so great to be able to drive, notwithstanding all my various handicaps.

Both shoulders bothering me now. My old body is honestly so fk'd up it's untrue... But here's to solutions, not problems.

In poker news, I'm just about staying afloat while all this crap is going on with my health. Can't get my redline out of the muck, but at least the green is obliging... Games r brutal. Guys who used to 10 table 200s sitting at the 30s... Meh, whingers gon' whinge I guess


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Went to see Ridley Scott's Springsteen and I this evening. It was bloody marvellous. So moving...
Then Boiler Room, which is a sort of poor man's Wall Street. Pretty decent too.

Poker year almost over. Hopefully will manage a report though the results are unspectacular. Still, I'm happy not to be stuck in an office during this weather. :)


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zachrina
Joined: 05.12.2012

Hi Tim,

Sorry to hear about your shoulders mate. I didn't realise when I booked the 2hr session. If you want to change or cut it short then just say, we can always carry on another time, no problem.

I shipped the funds via FT this evening.

Hope you're feeling better soon.


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Appreciate that, sir. Let's see how we go... ;)


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roopopper
Joined: 31.12.2010

Originally posted by Tim64
Picked up the new(ish) wheels today. Black i30 automatic with cruise and bluetooth and loads of other useless electric shi* that still excites the pants off your author.

Went for a spin in the countryside to some formal gardens after a fab pub lunch. Very smooth ride and it's so great to be able to drive, notwithstanding all my various handicaps.

i30 very posh Tim :f_biggrin:

lol I bought Mrs Roo the i10 last year and I keep nipping out in it


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

It's that time of the year again. Mrs Tim64 and our daughter off to her parents. I'm at home by myself grinding and eating lots of manfood.

Recently took on a student who I have also agreed to stake. He has so far completely justified my confidence in him and I hope we'll go far together. I'm hoping to expand the staking business in the coming year...

It took me a few days of staring at the new car numberplate before it finally clicked that it had a strange significance to me. I don't believe in fate, but this is kinda funny:

Got the x-ray results back a few days ago. There is nothing "abnormal" which means the diagnosis of 'secondary frozen shoulder' is now official. The doctor has referred me to a surgeon so now begins another few weeks wait for that consultation... :rolleyes:

Two more days and then I'll do a longwinded wrapup of the year. Feeling pretty good at the moment, all things considered. :)


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zachrina
Joined: 05.12.2012

Nice, although that pathway is crying out for some weed killer!

On the staking thing

Spoiler

Not sure I'm quite ready just yet ;o)

GL with the grind coach.

Zach


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Originally posted by zachrina
Nice, although that pathway is crying out for some weed killer!

This. :(


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zachrina
Joined: 05.12.2012

Sorry Tim, probably a bit insensitive.

My wife is very hard on me, even with no arms she would extract me to extract the weeds with my teeth!


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Originally posted by zachrina
Sorry Tim, probably a bit insensitive.

My wife is very hard on me, even with no arms she would extract me to extract the weeds with my teeth!

Actually, given my handicaps that's probably the most efficient method right now! :)


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Well, in the end it was rather a nothing month to finish the year. Managed to get my red line into the black for about a day before it tumbled back down to the netherworld... Nevermind; last July was pretty ugly too, so we'll just get this wrapup out of the way and move on to better things.

Numbers:
SNGs

Gms: 700
ABI $41.15
ROI -1.16%
Winnings -$334.53
rbk $680.33
Total: $345.48
Hours 79.1
SnG hourly $4.37

Plo

Hands 3480
Winnings $31.76 +$127.41 r/b
Hours 12.82
Plo Hourly $12.42

Other earnings (8h): $240
___
Final Profit: $987.70
___
Total Hours: 99.92
Combined hourly: $9.89

The main development of this month (apart from the ongoing saga of my frozen shoulder) has been the acquisition of the new car and a tentative entry into the world of staking.

I'm finding that, more and more, the games in which I have a clear edge are those below $60. Given that, I'm a little overrolled. And thus it makes sense to get more of my bankroll working for me if I can do so at a roughly equivalent risk/reward ratio. It's pretty hard to quantify the amount of risk in staking, however. This community has seen enough stakes gone wrong to impress upon any would-be staker the need to make provision for losses due to bad faith. Unfortunately, I've no idea what kind of percentage to apply to that. Furthermore, assessing the profitability of a potential stake (even assuming everyone acts properly) is not exactly straightforward. My assumption is that it's a skill that grows with experience...

Full year wrapup to follow, probably tomorrow morning.


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Here's last year's annual report. For reasons I won't go into, my poker fiscal year runs from August-July.

ANNUAL REPORT AUG 2012 – JUL 2013

The Directors report that annual earnings during 2012-2013 were in line with those achieved in the previous fiscal year.

Q1-Q4 Graphs

August - October 2012:

November 20012 - July 2013:

Combined (approx.):

Q1-Q4 Financial Results

Total Expected Revenue: $36,345.78

Earn Rate:

Total Playing Hours: 1084h
Hourly Rate (combined): $33.53/hr
$/Tournament: ~$5.00
ABI $74.48

Q1-Q4 Summary

At the start of the fiscal year we were sufficiently confident to forecast a year-on-year increase to annual income. This prediction was based on the assumption that an increase in the ABI, given comparable volume levels, would lead to an increase in hourly rate and consequently to overall profits. The estimate of $42,000 - $50,000 was proposed.

The financial figures presented above appear to lend credence to those assumptions. $/Tournament increased by approximately 25%, from $3.97 to $5.00. The hourly rate saw a more modest increase, of 18%. There were two relevant factors explaining this difference. First was the provision of coaching at a lower hourly rate than the playing rate. The second was that a portion of the overall playing time was applied to Pot Limit Omaha, where a profitable game has not yet been proven.

Regrettably the fall in total working hours from around 1300 to around 1100 represents a significant drop in total product (-16%). It seems reasonably clear to the directors that the majority of this decrease was due to noticeably poorer health of the Player than in the previous fiscal year.

It is also worth noting at this point that tracking software indications are that earnings in the 2012/13 fiscal year were significantly above EV (expected value). The number may be in the range of $7-$10,000, which if accurate, is significant enough to warrant increased circumspection going forward.

Next Fiscal Year Plan (2013 - 2014)

Health

Given in the first place that the Player has been diagnosed with a frozen left shoulder requiring (in all likelihood) either a surgical procedure with consequent convalescence or a prolonged "natural" recovery period of up to 2 to 3 years, and in the second, the observations above about having run above expected value in the last 12 months, it seems prudent to be highly conservative in our predictions for the coming fiscal year.

Poker Economy

Our assessment of the poker economy, as regards SnGs, is that the last 12 months have seen a further and significant contraction. In order to continue to source games with a comfortably positive expected value, we should anticipate a reduction in the ABI. ABI $50 seems to be an appropriate estimate.

Volume

Current volume is of not more than 600 games on average per month. The directors do not see any great likelihood that this figure is can be improved upon while the current poor health of the Player pertains. (For example it appears unlikely that, even with surgery, significant range of movement in the affected shoulder can be achieved much before the end of this calendar year). A somewhat bullish prediction of $4/game would enable approximate earnings in the range of $25,000-$30,000.

Staking

Given that ABI is likely to decline, it may be appropriate to use part of the Player's bankroll to finance a modest business sideline in staking other players. The majority of this is likely to be at micro-and low limits, at least to begin with. Staking represents a business opportunity with a risk element that is hard to quantify precisely. Thus caution in this regard is warranted.

31/7/2013


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MilanBurdych
Joined: 20.05.2008

Love the reports, love the results!

Good health and good luck.

(And also edit the post - November 20012 - July 2030 - funny dates )


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Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

How many years has it been that you quit law? Is the plan to fully transition from sngs to plo? # of hands played in plo? Have you considered the variance your income is likely to face with the possible change? Have you considered other games besides plo? Why no nlhe?

Congrats on another successful year as a pro!


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