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Midlife Crisis? What Midlife Crisis?

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jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009

Originally posted by EmanuelC16

Originally posted by jbpatzer

Originally posted by EmanuelC16
I think the plan is to take all the money from the Zimmers because JB is all baller but can't keep up with youngsters. Great Evil Plan you have there, monsieur!

I hope you don't think this means I don't want to finish our HU match......

We play for personal pride and bragging rights anyway, I know the Zimmers have some HS action secretly going on there..

FYP


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mineriva
Joined: 30.04.2008

Originally posted by jbpatzer

Originally posted by EmanuelC16
I think the plan is to take all the money from the Zimmers because JB is all baller but can't keep up with youngsters. Great Evil Plan you have there, monsieur!

I hope you don't think this means I don't want to finish our HU match......

I am planing on using my zimmers winnings as a deposit on the wifes new car.
Those 27c tourneys real good value.

@JB maybe you could get hold of MC. We could stake her. (If we save up a bit)


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MisClick
Joined: 30.05.2008

Originally posted by jbpatzer
Anyway, following on from last night's girlie strop, what I'm trying to say is that, even if I do have a small edge at NL50/100, if you look at the various graphs posted around these forums (or, even better, buy our book and read my explanation of variance) you'll know that even winning players need of the order of 100K hands to reliably realize an edge, and even then you're still going to lose money over 100K hands quite often unless they have a huge edge. In the meantime the swings are quantifiably huge. I therefore declare that I am mathematician and wannabe poker theorist, and recreational poker player and, like girls, I just want to have fun. I therefore present you with my new monthly poker schedule, designed around the needs of the fortysomething poker pleasure seeker.

Week 1: One night - cash games (this will be whatever game and format I fancy). Thursday night - Zimmers (we're going to start this again next week - if you're over thirty and not a huge tosser, get in touch and you can play too).
Week 2: One night cash games. Friday or Saturday - MTT night.
Week 3: One night - cash games. Thursday night - Zimmers.
Week 4: One night cash games. Friday or Saturday - MTT night.

I may play the odd live MTT, but will probably have to give the cash games a miss unless my bankroll grows somewhat larger. Actually, the temptation to cash out and spend the money on the kids is strong, but I will resist for now.

Here endeth my attempt to make any $$$ from poker.

+1 me too, bees ftw.

I might let you win a zimmer or two, just to keep you hooked.


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mineriva
Joined: 30.04.2008

all hail the leader of the Zimmers...

Really good to see you back MC.

Hoping that you will be running the Zimmers again.


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Coach
pleno1
Joined: 19.11.2010

What would you say the odds are for a grinder to have 12 Consecutive winning months?


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thazar
Joined: 14.09.2009

Originally posted by pleno1
What would you say the odds are for a grinder to have 12 Consecutive winning months?

it's where you are supposed to respond: "hmm it depends" :P

I'd depends of #hands per month and win rate of grinder... :P


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jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009

Originally posted by thazar

Originally posted by pleno1
What would you say the odds are for a grinder to have 12 Consecutive winning months?

it's where you are supposed to respond: "hmm it depends" :P

I'd depends of #hands per month and win rate of grinder... :P

If you play 40K hands per month with a win rate of 5bb/100 hands, assuming your standard deviation is 80bb/100 hands, which is typical, then at the end of the month your mean win is 5*400 = 2000bb = 20 BI, and your standard deviation is 80*sqrt(400) = 1600bb = 16BI. The chances of being more that 20/16 = 1.2 standard deviations below the mean are about 11.5%, so you will have a winning month 88.5% of the time. The chance of doing this 12 times in a row is (88.5%)^12 = 23%, so it's not too extraordinary. Of course a lower win rate or lower volume makes it less likely as thazar says. Also, that's the chances for a particular 12 month stretch if you ask just before you start. If instead you ask the question, 'If I play for, say, 3 years, what's the chance that I'll have a 12 month winning stretch at some point during that 3 year period?' the odds are of course a lot higher.


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NightFrostaSS
Joined: 25.10.2008

Originally posted by jbpatzer

Originally posted by thazar

Originally posted by pleno1
What would you say the odds are for a grinder to have 12 Consecutive winning months?

it's where you are supposed to respond: "hmm it depends" :P

I'd depends of #hands per month and win rate of grinder... :P

If you play 40K hands per month with a win rate of 5bb/100 hands, assuming your standard deviation is 80bb/100 hands, which is typical, then at the end of the month your mean win is 5*400 = 2000bb = 20 BI, and your standard deviation is 80*sqrt(400) = 1600bb = 16BI. The chances of being more that 20/16 = 1.2 standard deviations below the mean are about 11.5%, so you will have a winning month 88.5% of the time. The chance of doing this 12 times in a row is (88.5%)^12 = 23%, so it's not too extraordinary. Of course a lower win rate or lower volume makes it less likely as thazar says. Also, that's the chances for a particular 12 month stretch if you ask just before you start. If instead you ask the question, 'If I play for, say, 3 years, what's the chance that I'll have a 12 month winning stretch at some point during that 3 year period?' the odds are of course a lot higher.

Cool blog post with quite a bit of math on 6m nl http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/03/nlhe_6m_pros/


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jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009

Originally posted by NightFrostaSS

Cool blog post with quite a bit of math on 6m nl http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/03/nlhe_6m_pros/

Tl;dr.

Just buy our book. I explain it using coconuts.


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NightFrostaSS
Joined: 25.10.2008

I'll buy it once it's on torrents :coolface:


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jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009

Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
I'll buy it once it's on torrents :coolface:

The torrent will look like an ebook, but it will actually be something like this, just to deal with people like you.

Spoiler

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Originally posted by jbpatzer

Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
I'll buy it once it's on torrents :coolface:

The torrent will look like an ebook, but it will actually be something like this, just to deal with people like you.

Spoiler

Don't worry Nightfrosta, I just watched it and didn't get the phonecall so the torrent is probably safe.


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NightFrostaSS
Joined: 25.10.2008

Actually I wouldn't mind a phone call.


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jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009
mineriva
Joined: 30.04.2008

Originally posted by jbpatzer

Originally posted by NightFrostaSS

Cool blog post with quite a bit of math on 6m nl http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/03/nlhe_6m_pros/

Tl;dr.

Just buy our book. I explain it using coconuts.

Glad you decided to bring it down to my level. At least then I will get some value out of it.

PS. IMHO these other post are just a lot of clones


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

yes it was tl but I did read.

Best line from the article:

In fact, estimating your winrate accurately is basically impossible. In order to know your winrate at NLHE 6-max within 2 bb/100 (e.g.4 bb/100 +/- 2 bb/100 a.k.a. 2 bb/100 to 6 bb/100) with 95% confidence, you need to play about 800k hands!

This after a long explanation of winrates, standard deviations.

I've played about 200K lifetime, and about 150K of those I have tracked.
My game changes from month-to-month as I learn more and forget some etc.

However, the gist of the article:

Less than 1% of them lose (0.65%), and almost 90% of them (89.2%) make at least 50 buy-ins. So, a 200k hand sample for a solid NLHE 6-max reg is going to turn out pretty well almost always. That’s awesome. It isn’t the end of the world to play 200k hands–Just 6-table for 400 hours.

Which I read as:
If you are a losing player after 200K hands, it ain't "variance". Face it, you suck.

If that's you, buy jb/TT/manu's book.
:coolface:


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jules97
Joined: 10.06.2012

books not even out yet... :f_confused: :f_confused:

I'm looking forward to posting a scathing review here. And possibly starting a lawsuit if I'm not crushing nosebleeds 4 weeks after delivery.


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mineriva
Joined: 30.04.2008

Originally posted by jules97
books not even out yet... :f_confused: :f_confused:

I'm looking forward to posting a scathing review here. And possibly starting a lawsuit if I'm not crushing nosebleeds 4 weeks after delivery.

+1


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jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009

Originally posted by VorpalF2F

However, the gist of the article:

Less than 1% of them lose (0.65%), and almost 90% of them (89.2%) make at least 50 buy-ins. So, a 200k hand sample for a solid NLHE 6-max reg is going to turn out pretty well almost always. That’s awesome. It isn’t the end of the world to play 200k hands–Just 6-table for 400 hours.

Which I read as:
If you are a losing player after 200K hands, it ain't "variance". Face it, you suck.

0.65% doesn't sound like much, but if there are 100K poker players, that's 650 people. What do you think they think?

Here's another good one. Let's say that 1000 break even players play 100K hands of NLHE. For this, the standard deviation is about 25BI. 2.3% of them will lie more than 2 standard deviations from the mean and win 50BI, giving them a perceived winrate of 5bb/100 hands. That's 23 people. What do you think that they think? What do you think is likely to happen to them over the next 100K hands?

Random numbers are evil. :f_mad:

Originally posted by mineriva

Originally posted by jules97
books not even out yet... :f_confused: :f_confused:

I'm looking forward to posting a scathing review here. And possibly starting a lawsuit if I'm not crushing nosebleeds 4 weeks after delivery.

+1

+2


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mineriva
Joined: 30.04.2008

because JB is so shy and will not tell I feel it my duty to report back that JB was able to win at least one of the games that he "made up" for purposes of the Zimmers tourneys last night.

In an interview after the tournament he told us that he was going to use the money to buy new hubcaps for his car.

Congratz JB.

ps. I did not stay to see MC own JB HU in the 8 game but all is well in the world today so I am sure it happend.


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