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Reraised OTT, folding overpair?

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Guthans
Joined: 16.12.2009

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/4571176_B5A42DFB38

I figured he'd easily be able to stack of with anything from 88-QQ(if he calls 3bets with QQ that is) but thinking about it makes it feel kinda slim that he'd play them this way. Not many combos of 4s, so really only 77 & 44 makes any sense. What do you guys think, fold and save a couple of bucks?


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Hi,

Did I calculate this correctly?
Cost to shove = 5,2
Total pot when both shove = 19,9
Equity needed = 26% (not including rake).

So you only need to win about one pot in four.
Villain can only have 1 combo of 44 and 3 combos of 33. I don't think he would call 77 a lot of the times on the flop. So I would shove it.


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Guthans
Joined: 16.12.2009

Originally posted by MarliesB
Hi,

Did I calculate this correctly?
Cost to shove = 5,2
Total pot when both shove = 19,9
Equity needed = 26% (not including rake).

So you only need to win about one pot in four.
Villain can only have 1 combo of 44 and 3 combos of 33. I don't think he would call 77 a lot of the times on the flop. So I would shove it.

Looks about right. I guess he could have some A4s in there aswell, but doesn't change much though.


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I don't think A4 will call a 3bet very often


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Hi Guthans,

Any info on villain at all?

Generally these type of lines look pretty nutty and i think that if he had an overpair he'd just shove rather than min raise. So that min raise it's either the nuts or a bluff and i really can't see 10nl players floating flop and bluff raising often here.

So yes I think we could find a cry fold, although it's hard to do that in a session.


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