Storm Shove

I prefer to fold as you are rarely ahead of UTG+1's range and you have no fold equity. Even with the overlay from blinds and antes. I prefer to shove first in myself.

Hey HollyMichelle!

With 5 bb I don't fold a8, not even against utg raises. The thing is you probably won't even find a spot where you can really jam and win longterm chips in the longrun. Of course you don't have fe but a8 should perform not too + you block a few hands ax as well!

I jam, even if its slightly -ev! its imo a good risk/reward and you need to accept some of those spots too when you got soo short!

Greets,
Tiltberger

Thank you very much TB

Originally posted by Tiltberger
Hey HollyMichelle!

With 5 bb I don't fold a8, not even against utg raises. The thing is you probably won't even find a spot where you can really jam and win longterm chips in the longrun. Of course you don't have fe but a8 should perform not too + you block a few hands ax as well!

I jam, even if its slightly -ev! its imo a good risk/reward and you need to accept some of those spots too when you got soo short!

Greets,
Tiltberger

If we are playing in a tough tournament then I do agree with you that there is not much we can do but get it in.

However, this is the Sunday Storm, one of the softest tournaments around. Players, don't shove/call wide enough.

We have 6 more hands to play until the BB hits us. Any hand in the top 25-35% will be good enough to shove.

In theory when we shove 5bb we shouldnt have much Fold Equity, as even if it folds to the BB, the BB needs to risk 4bb to win 7.5(5+1.5+1).
So BB will need around 25% equity to call our shove.

In practise this is not the case. Weaker players will not call off a 5bb shove light ( which they should). Thus with a 5bb stack we have a lot of fold equity.

I have been been playing a lot of turbo format low stakes mtts the past few days and I can assure you that this is case.

Thats the main reason I think its best to fold and shove in the next hands.

Cheers

Its a good point. But if you're unlucky you are not getting any hand you can shove or you're not getting first in. then you need to make an odds call!

Btw with 4-5 bbs I would minraise in the next rounds and hope a there is somebody multi tabling in sb or is just not looking at our stack sizes. Then some players are just folding to a minraise (but they would call all shoves for the odds). Depend pretty much on the players in the blinds!

But I would agree that you can fold here and wait for a better spot, if this spot really comes and brings you really more chips longterm (future game is also a point) is discussable

Greets,
Tiltberger

Thanks again guys, really love the discussion here!

I hadn't had a hand in over an hour so I didn't really think about this enough. Still though, if I had my time over again I would still shove it.

@maritsula, what hands would you shove here in this spot?

yeah looks like a v easy fold?

no fold equity behind an opening range from ep and actually pretty dominated. (hes opening of a 15bb stack...

Think were very lucky he has 55 but not so lucky in the end

if villain had been aggro then sure

Thanks Paddy for your input

we block a few ax kombos. of course we are not ahead of his range. but its close and we need to find a better spot. against tight players fold is def good.

greets
tiltberger

Should be a close call imo.

We have no fold equity --> true
We are not ahead of his range --> true
We are dominated more often then not --> true
We may find better spots --> partially true I guess

However, assuming that our opponent never folds we get odds that are too good for a fold. We only need ~34% Equity against his range and I am quite sure that we should have them:

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    64.67%  62.52%   2.14% { 66+, A8s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+, KQo }
MP3    35.33%  33.19%   2.14% { A8o }

That's a fairly tight range and I don't see him being much tighter on default. If Gary added some more information on his opponent that might change a few things, but against this already tight range we have a close call.
Imo the range is even a bit looser on average.

Regards,
Asaban

Will dig up any info I have on this guy tomorrow

Thanks for that Asaban

Hey,

Stats would rly facilitate the analysis, but anyways; considering the Vil is opening 22+,KJo+,A8s+,QJs,JTs,KTs+,ATo+ 14,6% (seems like a balanced range to me, maybe a little wide), and of course he's calling your allin with 100% of his range because of the odds he's getting, wich gives you 0% fold equity (he needs 22% equity to call your raise, that's any2); you get an ev of +4091, wich is basically 1 bb, in rt I'm not folding this either because I don't think we will get that much better spots because even with the inflection points of open shoving you won't get as good as a spot as this because you have no fold equity and so what matters is your real hand equity.

I would cry shove if he's a reg/good player/tight, and be slightly more directed to shoving if he's a donky (as you prob. get some fold equity against stupid players)/loose (because your equity goes up obv).

Cliffs: call imo

Hey guys,

Here is the stats of villain: 16 hands.

VPIP: 20 (15)
PFR: 20 (15)
RF: 50 (6)
3B: 0
ST: 100 (1)