Originally posted by miskokvo
sorry guys you can tell my whatever you want but trying re-reise/re-steal with 44 is stupidity.. you just finding way to defend that guy...
and stop saying of coinflip it makes my rely sick... there are maybe 3 hands good enough to raise in midl position AK,AQs,KQs, with is coinflip...
there are 10-hands (55,66,77,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA) dominating him 82%:18%-this hands i can easily have when im raising....especialy TT+
and dont forget that guy was in big blind so he should fold coz defending BB with 44 in full ring of 10 players .. god if just think about it for one second you will admire that was very bad/sad move for him
Lets see from other perspective. 13 VPIP - you play tight. Would tight player raise 55-88 from MP close to bubble when BB is bigger stack? Maybe, maybe not. I would be more inclined to think that he wouldnt. i would put on range like 99+, AJs+, AQo+. Dont know about KQs. So there are 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA pairs - each has 6 hands possible. Then there is AK, AQ - 16 hands each possible, AJ only suited and lets take KQ too suited - 4 hands each possible. So in total we have 6x6 = 36 pair hands, 2x16 = 32 hands from AK and AQ, and 8 more hands from AJ, KQ. So 36:40 that tight raiser doesnt have pair. If he has pair we have 80:20, if he doesnt we have flip with us being slight favourite. Dont have equitlator so will do math old style - (36*0,2 + 40*0,55)/76 = ~38% equity if i got it right.
Now. 44 guy has bigger stack and money is close. If he loses he still has chance to get ITM. If he wins he gets way higher chance of making deep ITM. Close to money also means he can put big pressure on you. Now, if he pushes what hands would tight player call? AA, KK, QQ and probably JJ too. AK. If i was the tight player i would muck KQ, AJ, AQ. Not sure about TT and 99. I think we can easily get 12% fold equity to make this EV neutral. I think we might get even more fold equity making that move good. And take pot odds into acount as well. Since he was BB his pot odds were also making this move better.
I have excluded hands like 55-88 from calculation. If you raised such hands our equity to win pot in case of call after our resteal would fall but fold equity raise as i cant imagine tight player put his tourney life at risk with 55 so close to money.
Dont know if i had pushed 44. Depends on stacks and action before. What i am saying is - its viable move.
btw. You cant count hands like AK = 1 and AA = 1. Since there are 6 ways to make AA and 16 ways to make AK hand.
And one more thing. You said you put him on 99-QQ and wanted to flip. So what are you crying? 44 vs AK is basically the same flip as AK vs 99. Wanted flip, got you flip.