top pair on a wet board

Joined: 02.12.2011

30.07.2014, 15:24 0

888 Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 62 BB
SB: 123.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 137.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP: 78 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
CO: 116 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♦ Q♦

fold, MP calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold, MP calls 2 BB

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 3♠ T♠ J♣
SB bets 1 BB, MP calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 14 BB, SB calls 13 BB, fold

Turn: (39 BB, 2 players) 9♣
SB bets 106.5 BB, Hero ???

Call here without any reads? My analysis: I'm getting ~2:1 and what's villain betting with?
Straights: KQ, Q:spade8:spade, 7:spade 8:spade,
maybe they can play this way with AJ, JT or a set but that play doesn't make much sense to me. QJ especiailly with a spade does seem possible though
Or they might semi-bluff with a flush draw or QT, Q9. That's more combos I beat than combos I lose to, especially considering KQ is probably a 3-bet preflop. What do you think?

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3 replies

faronel

Joined: 13.07.2011

Posts: 1,186

31.07.2014, 19:00 0

The way the villain plays this hand postflop, he/she is unlikely to 3bet with the hands (like KQ, AJ) that usually give us a proper option to do so preflop. They easily can just call it and then pick up random lines postflop.

Whatever the villain has, his line is too unorthodox for you to pick a read here and too much to invest to get proper odds. Besides, you are no way pot commited here. Fold and next hand, please.

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hendreyth

Joined: 02.12.2011

Posts: 7

01.08.2014, 12:30 0

Thanks faronel

Whatever the villain has, his line is too unorthodox for you to pick a read here and too much to invest to get proper odds. Besides, you are no way pot commited here. Fold and next hand, please.

I'm glad you think villain's line is too unorthodox to understand, because I couldn't understand it! I don't understand, though, why this means I should fold. For a fold to be correct I need to at least 60% confident I'm beat, and how can I be that confident when I don't understand their play?

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faronel

Joined: 13.07.2011

Posts: 1,186

10.08.2014, 17:37 0

Sorry for the late reply, mate. Somehow missed your question here.

I did not notice that you were not playing 100BB game in this hand. Are you MSSing?

As for your question, you need to win 34% of the times for this call to be profitable in the long run. Since the villain's line is too unorthodox, you can somewhat expand the range of his winning hands (e.g. KQ calling instead of 3betting). Then you are facing this question: how much equity do you really have?

If it was a regular table and the BR allowed, I maybe would have made a call there, took a note and played the next hand. But on the speed tables the chances of bumping into that villain are not that high in comparison to what your note can be worth here.

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