Originally posted by VorpalF2F
So SB thinks BTN is opening light, so raises.
When BTN caps, he has to put in an additional 1/2 BB into a pot of 4 BB so he is getting 8:1 -- pretty much must call.
With a pair, yes, SB should call; however, if he had initially decided to 3-bet with AK, he should probably fold unless he is planning to CR bluff postdraw and that would depend on whether he held good hand features with his AK: e.g., if he was suited and held a few other high cards a CR bluff postdraw may have a better chance to succeed compared to some other AK hands. Recent history and table dynamics would probably be an important factor as well as future EV.
Post draw, BTN MUST bet -- he takes the pot no other way, and he needs to do this so he gets paid when his draw hit.
This is pretty much an autobet unless he had paired on precisely the K; with the Q, it's debatable and depends on the SB's range when he draws 3 cards in this spot --- if it's nearly impossible for the SB to have less than KK, then the BTN should bluff with QQK52 and obviously anything weaker.
SB MUST call -- the pot is now 5.5 big bets, and he needs to be ahead only 1 in 6 to break even.
Not quite a MUST call. Before the SB calls the 4-bet, he should already be prepared to think about what he will do postdraw; e.g., if he believes the BTN had a legitimate 4-betting hand, he should only call+ by improving to two pairs or better. OTOH, in this situation, it is clear that the SB strongly believed that the BTN was on a semibluff: specific hand features may have swayed his decision: e.g., if he initially held 77 without diamonds and clubs and without an A or a K, he might think the BTN was semibluffing with a flush draw ( or opening with AK initially ). If he now had caught at least a diamond and a club postdraw, this would now decrease the number of combinations of possible flush draws the BTN holds; in the actual draw, he received the Jd, 9s and 2h, so just based on the suit distribution ( say he didn't see a single club, so that makes it now slightly more likely the BTN has a club draw ) and his initial belief ( due to either "table feel" or actual hand texture ), he ought to call. The worst draw without improving will look something like the Kd and Ac; then, the SB can think about folding. Thus, the SB can use game theory to base his decision: I guess the pot was $87.75 just before drawing cards, so the SB must call+ ( includes legit check raising ) with a frequency of about ~87.75/107.75 or about 0.81438515 of the time when he has drawn 3 cards. If he decides to use game theory for his range, then unimproved 77 will unlikely fall into the top 81.44% of his postdraw range in this precise situation; however, he can use game theory for this specific hand, i.e., 77 and then decide in advance something like: if I either don't see a club or diamond, I'm calling unimproved ( if he intially held 77 with spades and hearts ); if I see an A and a K with a diamond a club, I'm folding; everything else, I'll think about if I get there. He needs to call with about 0.7396189 of his unimproved combinations or ~8549 of his 11559 combinations when he doesn't improve to be unexploitable. If he's been in this situation before, then he may have worked out the mathematics in advance already so his decision is systemic ( simply based on the specific cards he receives postdraw ) and not merely based on "seat of the pants" intuition.
In this case, BTN DID rep better than a pair, but it got him no further than if he had started with the deuces.
Is SB better off check/raising post-draw as a bluff vs D1?
If BTN has a small 2pr would he not be more-or-less forced to fold it?
Now I see why > FL $1/$2 scares the crap out of me ♠_cry:
VS
Actually, the BTN may have discarded an A, so in that case, his 4-bet was pretty automatic too, just in case the SB had a weak two pairs; even if the SB has AA-QQ, it's a bit less likely for the SB to improve. He could have also just called and then bet postdraw if the SB now draws three; however, it's not obviously clear that the SB would have drawn 3 if the BTN doesn't 4-bet predraw; the SB could have started with 7s-up and decided to break off two pairs.
The problem is that the SB may get blown off by a 3-bet bluff if he decides to CR bluff; it's ok to CR with the intention of 4-bet bluffing, but I don't think this is what the SB would do. The kind of hand to CR 4-bet bluff could be something like an AK suited that failed to materialize and had a lot of high cards with extreme suit texture or some rare unimproved one pair hands with high cards.
The BTN should fold his worst legitimate betting hands, such as some A-high flush draws that paired on aces and some of his worst two pair hands. He's not really forced to fold all small two pairs unless he systemically decides to always fold them. Again, he can use game theory for the specific hand in question rather than his range if the hand texture or table dynamics were important in his judgment.
Semibluffing is part of the game, so some of the hand range details have to be worked out in advance before playing so as to not give away anything at the table ( such as timing tells ).