Hello boys and girls,
Raise your hand if you've ever felt like you've lost value vs an opponent, and more precisely a fish.
Let's take a look together at one such example !
But first, let's all enjoy this wonderful image:
Information: BTN: unknown, SB: nit ;
BB:
- loose fish over a decent sample (at least 200 hands).
- appears to be passive.
- does not like to fold to cbets (32% on flop, 42% on turn, 34% on river)
- Note: Call river overbet shove (1.7x pot) QTo on Q9432hhh - 110 BB deep.
- Note: Call three streets 1/2 bet 3rd pair, 2nd pair TK, TPNK.
- Note: Call two streets TPGK, ck back river blank.
Effective stacks: 150 BB
Preflop: Hero is CO with A♥: 6♥:
3 folds, Hero raises 3 BB, 2 folds, BB calls
Flop: (6.5 BB)J♦: ,9♥: ,3♠: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 4.5 BB, BB calls
Turn: (15.5 BB) 5♥: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 9.5 BB, BB calls
River: (34.5 BB) 2♥: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 24 BB, BB calls
My opinion? Let's shove that river !!!! Yes, that means putting all those 133 big blinds in the middle.
Let's start this analysis:
Before we even begin playing a hand like this we should be aware of the information that we posses on this opponent. What are some key elements?
The fact that he is a station, a passive station is key. That alone allows us to plan the hand with max value in mind. That means that we are looking to squeeze every bit of value on every street.
So what's villain's range for calling such a flop vs a 2/3 pot cbet?
Something like this (keep in mind the board texture, the information and the general wide range that he starts with):
- all pairs from 22 to J2o and AJ.
- all Ax hands, with or without backdoors
- all gutshots and most back door FDs
- all 2p+ since we assume he is really passive
Even though that doesn't seem like a lot that's generally making up 60-65% of his range (at the very least).
Now that we get on the turn a lot of people would be tempted to check back because "fish do not fold on blanks". While that's partially true we can definitely make him fold some part of his range plus all the other benefits of betting (can you see the other benefits? try listing them).
So his turn range for calling our bet should be narrower than on the flop and would look like this:
- most pairs from at least 5x+ to J2o and AJ.
- all flush draws
- stronger Ax
- all gutshots
- part of his 2p+ since we can expect some to raise (the famous minraise on the turn). I'd still keep in about half of his 2p+ hands.
This usually means about 60-70% of his range will continue here in some form or another. That only gives us 30-40% fold equity but how much do we really need when we bet 9.5 to win 15.5?
Well, let's do the math. (9.5 / 25) * 100 = 38%...
Thus, even without much hand equity we almost have enough fold equity to make a profitable bet. Of course we still have equity with our nut flush draw and overcard. We also generally have a very good chance to get paid up on the river should we hit.
And now let's get to the river:
Based on the information that we have what can villain call this river bet (24 BB or 2/3 pot) with?
- most pairs that called the turn
- some rare Ax like AK/AQ if he ever gets to those here
- some rare straight and weaker FDs
And what does he raise?
- most of his FDs and some straights
Based on our range assumptions he would have the following:
- 28 combos of flushes
- 14 combos of straights
- 7 or 8 combos of sets (took out some sets on the turn)
- at least 30-40 combos of 2p (there are about 60 combos total that he could have but we took some out on the turn)
- about 84 combos of TP
- about 96 combos of 9x or TT
- about 20 combos of other smaller PPs
- about 40 combos of 5x
- and if he ever calls 3x on the turn he has some 40+ combos of that too
- and then he has nothing for about 100 combos
In total that's roughly 500 combos from which 100 are saying no to most bets (that's about a 20% fold). If we take out some other hands we probably find a fold % of about 25%.
Now let's do some very basic math.
If we expect him to call 24 BBs with the hands listed above we expect him to call 24 BBs about 250-400 combos. It's a wide gap because there's a lot of weak hands that may or may not call (with the notes/reads indicating that he is highly likely to call.
So you are looking at making from him 12 - 19.2 bb per hand in additional value with this bet when he calls ( you multiply 250 by 24 and divide by 500 to get 12 BBs).
And sometimes he'll get all his money in with let's say 30 combos of hands. That's an additional 30 hands times 133 bbs, or about 8 bb per hand.
So overall we are looking at making an additional 20-27.2 bb per hand from the river bet. * please note that this is a rough estimate and we are trying to keep the math as simple as possible.
Now let's look at my suggestion: THE SHOVE !!!
via Imgflip Meme Maker
Based on our notes and the population read (ie: the station fish read) we can expect the fish to call a shove with:
- all flushes ( 28 combos)
- all straights (14 combos)
- all sets that got here (8 combos)
- all 2 pairs (35 combos)
- most TP (75 combos)
- some other hands that he doesn't want to fold (usually random pairs)
So worse case scenario where just 2p+ calls we have about 85 combos. 85 multiplied by 133 bbs and divided by 500 is 22.61 BBs average per hand from a river shove.
But really we are very pessimistic with a worse case scenario because villain has already been seen calling large bets with weaker hands. So let's add half the combos of pairs and dump in there about 35 more combos. That will bring us to 120 combos total, or 31.92 BBs average per hand from a river shove.
So that's already more than what we were making betting 24 BBs and getting called by that really wide range.
Thus you can imagine how much money you can actually make in a best case scenario.
Lessons learned:
1) Don't be afraid to consider an overbet shove for value vs fish (and yes, you do not need to have the nuts *)
2) Pay attention to the information that villain has provided you with. If you have more than 50 hands on a fish and you have no mental (or written) notes on that person you are doing something wrong
3) USE all the information that you have to your advantage
4) Make sure you hand read and understand how to calculate combinations...
And now for the discussion, replace your hand with K♥: 6♥: - what should hero bet on the river?
Thank you all,
TLDR: Don't be a fish, valuebet bigger !!!!
