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Could you fold this set on a 3bet pot vs a reg?

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Volrath89
Joined: 23.07.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($10)
Hero ($14.56)
UTG ($10.15)
UTG+1 ($11.01)
CO ($9.90)
BTN ($10)

Dealt to Hero J:spade: J:heart:

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.24, Hero raises to $0.80, SB calls $0.56

FLOP ($1.60) J:club: 7:club: 6:heart:

SB checks, Hero bets $1.01, SB calls $1.01

TURN ($3.62) J:club: 7:club: 6:heart: T:heart:

SB checks, Hero bets $2.30, SB calls $2.30

RIVER ($8.22) J:club: 7:club: 6:heart: T:heart: K:heart:

SB bets $5.88, Hero ???

For me that River card and his donkbet was as if he had flipped up his A:club: Q:club:
Fold?

Any other possibility to play this hand? Maybe overbet-shove the turn? :/


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8 replies
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Originally posted by Volrath89
Maybe overbet-shove the turn? :/

Yep, seems like a good idea. Your betting line looks so strong i doubt he could have even thought about bluffin'


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bonecore
Joined: 02.11.2009

this is nut vs nut situation, call or fold is not very important in long run.
Remember this, if you understand what i wrote above, you will not tilt in this spot!


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

overbet shoving turn probably makes him fold close to 100%, could be ok with lower set


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

So many draws complete... Folding is not a mistake.


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Volrath89
Joined: 23.07.2008

Yep, thanks for your answers. So hard to fold a top set in SB vs BB in my worst day at the tables :(

Outcome of the hand:

Spoiler

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($10)
Hero ($14.56)
UTG ($10.15)
UTG+1 ($11.01)
CO ($9.90)
BTN ($10)

Dealt to Hero J:spade: J:heart:

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.24, Hero raises to $0.80, SB calls $0.56

FLOP ($1.60) J:club: 7:club: 6:heart:

SB checks, Hero bets $1.01, SB calls $1.01

TURN ($3.62) J:club: 7:club: 6:heart: T:heart:

SB checks, Hero bets $2.30, SB calls $2.30

RIVER ($8.22) J:club: 7:club: 6:heart: T:heart: K:heart:

SB bets $5.88, Hero raises to $10.45 (AI), SB calls $0.01 (AI)

SB shows 4:heart: 7:heart:
(Pre 18%, Flop 6.8%, Turn 18.2%)

Hero shows J:spade: J:heart:
(Pre 82%, Flop 93.2%, Turn 81.8%)

SB wins $19.10


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JayBee1982
Joined: 21.07.2011

Your perceived range also has a lot of AK, AQ and KQs in it, that would probably always double barrel here. The runout of the board just really sucks, but hey, these situations are exactly why the fish keep coming, right? :f_drink:


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I think you could bet bigger on the flop and on the turn, the board is very drawy. Not an easy river call tbh, though you beat many of his SDV hands that he turns into bluffs (if he does that) like 2 pairs with K.

I don't think he has AQ that often unless it's A:club:Q:club: precisely, which is obviously only one combo of hands. Something like A:heart:J:heart: is totally possible too, but I wouldn't disregard KT or KJ either. I actually had a very similar situation (also top set on a drawy board and a tough river situation) happen to me today, I will post it in a separate thread :)


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

With so many draws completing, we cannot think of a call.
Villain'sline is also as of completed draw - x/c 2 streets then donk heavy on river...


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