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Set on a flush

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churchilland
Joined: 26.01.2011

How do you play such standard situation ? All in on flop because you still can make full house? Fold flop?

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $3.86 (193 bb)
BB: $2.36 (118 bb)
UTG: $0.97 (48.5 bb)
MP: $2.82 (141 bb)
Hero (CO): $2 (100 bb)
BTN: $2 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 9
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, BTN folds, SB calls $0.05, BB folds

Flop: ($0.14) 9 Q 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.10, SB raises to $1.38, Hero raises to $1.94 and is all-in, SB calls $0.56

Turn: ($4.02) 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($4.02) T (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

$4.02 pot ($0.14 rake)
Final Board: 9 Q 3 6 T
SB showed K T and won $3.88 ($1.88 net)
Hero showed 9 9 and lost (-$2 net)


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10 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Villains shove is almost never a bluff. I think we have to fold here. We don't have odds to call and our raise gives 0 fold equity.


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SirPaulius
Joined: 19.11.2009

Ok. Villain shoves here, not just nuts. I have more than 30k hands at NL2, and I have seen there a lot of spots like this.

He might shove Q with a descent kicker especially with a heart, smth like AJ, AK with A of hearts, QQ+, 33, even TT and JJ might be in his range, I would not exclude JT too here. In general against unknown you can find here a fold,
but from what i seen it is a call, even against a made flush you have ~30 eq.

they are more likelly to slow play nuts, and a push on the river is a clear sign that you are beat.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

If you think that villain can do this not only with a flush but also with AhQx, then we have odds to call.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

You are right about that NL2 players can do very weird things. Still with out any reads I would fold this. We haven't invested much in this hand and the risk is big. I would fold to reduce variance.


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Hey churchilland, already went through the same situation and is difficult to fold a set.

@la55i - Your comment about odds are correctly, as he wasn't draw =


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TheMarxBros3
Joined: 21.09.2008

IMO this is a 100% fold.
1a-On the flop you are 33% to win against a flush.
1b-You do not have the pot odds to call
2a-If he is doing this with top pr and a flush draw the best you are is 70% to win which means you will lose 30% of the time.
2b-There are times when folding the best hand is correct in certain situations (and here we may not be ahead). I believe this to be one of those times.
3a-He check-raised and a check-raise almost always is the nuts and not TP with a draw type of hand.
3b-Being out of position with TP and a draw he will be more inclined to try pot control by check calling


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churchilland
Joined: 26.01.2011

Thanks for comments
TheMarxBros3 2a is not really a reason to fold. You'll not win in poker if you play only when you have 100% equity, 70% is perfect equity


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Do not try to figure out a specific hand. Look at his whole range here.


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TheMarxBros3
Joined: 21.09.2008

Originally posted by churchilland
Thanks for comments
TheMarxBros3 2a is not really a reason to fold. You'll not win in poker if you play only when you have 100% equity, 70% is perfect equity

This is all within the context of what nitrol just said. You have to figure out his range. If we were able to figure out his exact 2 cards then we could play and hold our own against Daniel Negreanu.

In the above hand if his hand is J-10 with 1 heart you would be a coin flip at best. Taking everything combined (his range) then you have to fold unless you can specifically put him on TP with a corresponding heart. This is the only hand you are 70%. That is why I included it in my post.
A thinking poker player is a winning poker player and you my friend have what it takes to reach your goal.


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churchilland
Joined: 26.01.2011

Oh, ok I see now your point, thanks.


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