Life is what happens in between

asimos, I raised for value here because I planned to raise/stack off. He might call with worse hands - AK, KT, T9, flush draws, and some better hands he calls with - I have at least 50% equity against them. Plus I'm increasing the pot sizing so I won't need to overbet on the river when I hit my flush or two pairs vs KQ/AQ/AJ or something. And I'm getting initiative so I can barrel. At least that's my plan - it might be terrible

I do check/call sometimes - but say you hit the river flush - you check again, and he checks back with his top pair. So you have to donk river or something?

Originally posted by DemonRax
asimos, I raised for value here because I planned to raise/stack off. He might call with worse hands - AK, KT, T9, flush draws, and some better hands he calls with - I have at least 50% equity against them. Plus I'm increasing the pot sizing so I won't need to overbet on the river when I hit my flush or two pairs vs KQ/AQ/AJ or something. And I'm getting initiative so I can barrel. At least that's my plan - it might be terrible

I do check/call sometimes - but say you hit the river flush - you check again, and he checks back with his top pair. So you have to donk river or something?

Is very difficult to play completely wrong with such equity. All the lines probably will make you some money. The question is which is the better.

You should take his sizing also into account. Do you believe he bets with flush draw or AK in multi way pot so big? Also 9T wouldn't imo. KT is more possible, but there are not many combos if he opens only the suited from that position. And in any case the flush draws combos are not many (AcKc, AcTc, ??) and KcTc has decent equity vs you.
*even if he bets with AK I doubt he calls the raise with high frequency when you check-raising in multi way pot.

That's why I feel the "raise for value argument" is not correct.

You can check raise the turn if you want. Now you can make some top pairs fold, and if you get called you can push the river when you hit... to put all the money in, or push to make top pairs fold when you don' hit. However, I would prefer to raise the turn with hands with no showdown value (i.e. flushes without pair).

I think planning to get all the money in vs AJ is optimistic.

Now lets examine if it is good to make the pot big on the flop.

vs his sets, 2pairs, nut flush draws is not good.

vs his top pairs is good if you hit the flush (lets say 35%) or if you don't hit and he is capable to fold vs a big bluff (which you could make however later putting more pressure, and having see how the board develops). * your 2 pair hit some of his straights, so I exclude from calculations for simplicity.

Is bad if you don't hit the flush and he either calls your bluff or you stop bluffing unimproved. Notice that I use the term bluffing cause I don't think he calls with worse any more on later streets, after the flop raise (except KT).

so making the pot big is at least not a clear advantage.

Now, by following the x/c line, if you hit on the river you can check- raise vs sets, straights, 2 pairs, bluffs, or you can donk your self if you feel that his range is top pair heavy. But if he continues with big sizes probably his holding is TPTK+ and you will extract some value with your flush. The pot shouldn't be too small by the river cause started as multi way pot.

asimos, OK, I see what you're saying. I do check/call there sometimes. This was in the video with a lot of action - that might've affected my decision ♠_biggrin:

Day 10 (2015.10.23)
Going to write a report on today earlier. I feel kinda exhausted - the whole week was tough for some reason. But I got an insight poker-wise and I gotta be happy with it. I was getting lucky today as well, ran really good and way over EV. Why this can't happen to me when I'm shooting for 10NL, dammit? No, of course I had to run 18 buy-ins below EV I'm not kidding, here's my shot earlier this summer.

But anyway, enough of crying. Everyone had those, right? Today I've played little more loose, around 22/18, pretty high WTSD of 29%, but that's because I ran really hot - W$SD is 62%, that's a clear indication. I've also played some Spin & Go's, might actually play more later tonight if I feel better and not so tired. So here are the stats.

Hands: 1674 (total 27057) in 3 sessions of 2NL Zoom SH
Net: +20.79$ (total 72.98$) and just +8.84$ by EV
Spin & Go's: 6 x0.5$ played with net +3$
Bankroll: 104.86$ (+10$ FFPs)

There's just this one hand I lost a full stack in. And it's an embarrassing one! So I'm going to post it. Could pick a hand for money offer this time, guys, sorry.

Hand #25 - why are you keep calling overbet shoves?!

Plans for the weekend
I'm behind my schedule on hands (and on sport part too as a matter of fact) so I might find time to grind some more hands. At least I might play some Spin & Go's. I'll also spend some time with my family, going to watch Rugby World Cup Semifinals, play some guitar - and yeah! F1 USA Grand Prix is also on Sunday. Going to be a nice weekend to relax, get some positive emotions, get fired up for the next week.

Sport
Could force myself to go through it again which is bit frustrating I am going to try and do something on weekend but in any case - will bounce back next week. Still have time to reach my goal.

Music
Again played for almost an hour, Caprices again. Damn, they're tough and fun!

Well, have a nice weekend everyone.
Jay's out.

Week 02
I'd say second week went great. I've got some mental insight which changed my perception of the game a little. It helped. I also ran pretty hot - +8bb/100 by EV and double that real money. I fell a little short of volume in cash games but I've played enough Spin & Go's to compensate that. So that's a success in my book. I played little tighter VPIP/PFR around 2219, WTSD is on a higher side though, more than 26%, but W$SD is 51% which again proves that I ran hot and saw more showdowns but also won more.

Here are results and stats, and bankroll challenge report is here.

Played at Zoom 2NL 6 max: 11978 hands
Net result: +39.48$ just +18.97$ by EV
Spin & Go's: 75/183 won/played, net: +19$
Current bankroll: 121.31$ (+10$ FPPs)

Weekend 02
Most of the time I spent with family, shopping, walking in the forest, playing, we also watched incredibly tense F1 USA Grand Prix weekend. Practice sessions and qualifying under heavy rain and storm, the race itself in tough conditions with lots of actions. Probably the best Grand Prix this year, even though Lewis Hamilton won the championship (I don't like him too much). I've also watched some NFL/NBA shows and Rugby World Cup Semifinals - both games were pretty close and exciting. Didn't do any sport excepting forest walk and played some guitar.

Poker-wise I've played 105 Spin & Go's 0.5$, won 44 of them with profit of 14$. I've also fought my way into the ITM in the Silverstar VIP weekly freeroll but went out just after the bubble. Just 6$ won - but still - boost for my bankroll. Watched some videos and read a book too by the way. So pretty decent weekend I think. Looking forward for the Week 03.

2NL beaten, moving up to 5NL report
So it's been 10 days into the challenge and 2NL is done. I've got it in 27k total with winrate of 13bb/100 but just 9bb/100 by EV, which is decent as well. I've been hesitating if I should move to 5NL at once because the plan was to play NL2 till the end of the month. But then I've also got some profits from Spin & Go's and freerolls, piling up the FPPs - and with effective bankroll over 130$ I think it's perfectly fine to take a shot at 5NL. I have at least 8-10 buy-ins cushion in downswing happens so I can move down to 2NL. I'm also going to continue playing Spin & Go's 0.5$ while there is the promo and then will switch to 1$ buy-ins. Not sure about moving up to 3$ yet, I guess I'll have to take a look in the end of the month.

Here are the totals for 2NL.

This is actually my second try this year, after a long break. I've already tried to climb up from 20$ this Summer and actually did quite well until I got hit by a downswing at 10NL and fell back again. Together with those hands I got exactly 100k hands at 2NL, so here are combined graphs and stats too.

Next stop is 10NL. I'm going to grind 5NL till the end of November and till I reach the goal of 300$ bankroll. I'd like to add to that 35$ - those will go for a cashout and buying the StarsHelper software - it's useful with stacks shown in BBs, player positions and pot odds. I might change my mind by for now - that's the plan. Well, probably if everything goes smooth I'm going to get it using the cash bonus, but... we'll see...

well done nitza... a solid start !! keep going

Day 11 (2015.10.26)
First this I did yesterday - recorded two more videos and uploaded them to website. One of them is Spin & Go session and the other one is the first NL5 session. Both are around 15 minutes long so check them out if you like.

After that I begun a shaky and painful NL5 day. In the end I recovered and ended up with some profit, but for some reason I took all the lost pots personally. Some of them were my pure mistakes and I was mad at myself, others were played stupidly by opponents and I was mad at them. But this shouldn't be the case no matter how you look at it, so I'm going to focus on that mental leak in the near future.

WTSD was rather high 26% but W$SD was decent 49%. I Actually watched a video this morning - the 500NL reg had almost 30% WTSD and still had like 8bb/100. I saw this in other sources as well. So I guess that doesn't matter at the end of the day. But! My analysis always shows that my biggest leak is the showdown - I bluff catch too much on the river. So I'm going to watch WTSD closely just to make sure it's under control.

Anyhow, here are the numbers and the graph.

Hands: 3855 (total 30912) in 8 sessions of 5NL Zoom SH
Net: +13.62$ (total +86.60$) and +11.87$ by EV
Spin & Go's: 11 x0.5$ played with net -1$
Bankroll: 132.57$ (+10$ FFPs)

Hand #26 - turn check/raise, Jay, turn check/raise...

Have no excuse for that. Of course I had coolers and beats a lot yesterday but this is a mistake I shouldn't make. Period.

Hey, but wait! Why are there more hands like this and even worse?! COME ON, JAY! You're better than this ♠_mad:

Hands #27 and #28 - just being an idiot

Hand #29 - nitty two pairs fold - good fold confirmed

Now let's go a little back to the first 5NL session. This hand was on the video too - and it's kinda new in the giveaway list because this time I folded and thought I was correct but now I'm having some second thoughts. To call I need around 32% equity. Basically if you put him on a value range - I got less. Even if you add some AK/AQ hands that he overplayed - you'll get a break-even call. And only if you add some flush draw semi-bluffs - it becomes slightly profitable. So what do you think? Did I lose 3.25$ there by folding? Then half of it is yours!

Sport
At last I was able to go through with the workout! And didn't forget the second one two. Feels really good:
Weight: 90.5 kg
Towel sit ups: 37
Yoga plank glute raise: 58
Sixpack wipes: 37
Side to side jumps: 134
High knees: 180
Air jacks: 46
Toe touching crunches: 44
Jumping knee tucks: 38
Chin ups: 6
Skipping rope: 70
Plank: 50 sec

Music
Been enjoying Caprices a lot, this time worked on #9. Didn't find it on YouTube though, gotta record it myself I guess Meanwhile you might as well enjoy my favorite female guitar player - she's so beautiful and plays really great. Ana Vidovic plays Asturias by Isaac Albeniz - great peace, well played.

herofolding like a bauss I don't mind the fold with bottom 2pair tbh, especially when you size it on the bigger side. wp

hand 29:

nice fold imo

Thanks, guys, I wish I made more folds like this How about some harsh words on other hands with bad calls?

Day 12 (2015.10.27)
Another tough day in the office. This time I got beaten in every way possible - bad beats, coolers and - what's more important - my own mistakes. Don't know why but moving up to the next level is always shaky for me - I loosen up, play more recklessly, call down lightly, tend not to give credit - you name it. At the same time - 3 buy-ins under EV means something too, I really didn't run well. Played 23/19 and 3bet went up to 9% with no reason, WTSD 31% and W$SD 48%. Ugh...

Hands: 4289 (total 35201) in 6 sessions of 5NL Zoom SH
Net: -9.62$ (total +76.98$) and +4.90$ by EV
Spin & Go's: 33 x0.5$ played with net +4$
Bankroll: 123.48$ (+20$ FFPs)

Hands #30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36 - STOP CALLING THOSE DOWN, DAMMIT!

Hand #37 - another call down - was this a mistake? Giving away full call size 1.10$

I mean - one of those call downs gotta be correct, right? I open raised Aces and the guy donks. My usual reaction is to raise the donk but here I didn't want to raise/fold. Or maybe I didn't want him to fold and stop donking... Don't quite remember. Now I think raising would be better - not because I know result of the hand but because there are tons of worse hands and draws that will call. After the turn hand just played itself - he might've had 7x or Qx so there was no point to raise anymore. But was the calling down correct? Money is yours.

Sport
Weight: 90.k lg
Alternating push ups: 42
Standing towel pull up: 54
In & Out push ups: 30
Bent over towel front raise: 42
Half burpee push ups: 26
Floor swimmers: 16
Towel snatches: 38
Prayers: 48
Chin ups: 6
Skipping rope: 80
Plank: 1 min

Music
Could've played more but was focusing on poker. Since Ana made such a huge impression on everyone - here's another video - this time it's three-part La Catedral by Augustin Barrios Mangore. Hope someone enjoying those as much as I do.

Hand 37

In this case I don't think raising flop is so good.

Regarding Villain's range I think that because of sizing is weighted towards tp+ instead of draws.

Now our hand is not so strong, since there are a lot of run outs which are unwelcome. Any J,9,K,T,7,Q and we are not super happy to see a diamond (bc either it will destroy the action if we are ahead or villain will hit a flush (which is not so likely as I said cause of sizing but still possible)) and even the A completes some straights.

Thus, considering also that the Villain might have the sets and 2 pairs (given the sizing the possibility is high) calling the flop seems better.

So, imo you 've played well until the river. Given that 1) I don't put the villain on a draw often and 2) that this run out is not attractive to bet/bet/bet bluff (or bet/bet/bet worse) I would fold the river.

Do I consider though to call the river bet big mistake? Well, given the odds and that villain is fish no. But in my experience I think fold is better.

*if the board was Q8x instead of QTx i think raising the flop to put all the money in by the river is a good plan.

** raising the turn is also a consideration here. If we exclude the flushes (given the flop sizing and that we hold the Ad this assumption may be valid), the Qx combos are more than the 7x combos, now set combos are even less... and vs Qx we have an easy value raise.

30: I think call is fine. If it is to fold on this board fold preflop.
31: I play x/c x/c x/c, or x/c x/c bet / fold. x/r the turn might be optimistic, usually you iso yourself vs better range, or Villain calls to fold the river, so doesn't accomplish a lot.
32: i agree fold the turn
33: close, but vs raise river folding (especially at these stakes) is almost never mistake
34: 77 I might even fold the turn given the sizing.
35: is close, depending on Villain's aggression. Theoretically we shouldn' t fold. In practice vs bet/bet/bet prolly fold is better vs most villains.
36: yes, fold the river.

No harsh enough, bro! Not. Harsh. Enough!

Everytime either me or Villain are on UTG - there should be no light call-downs! I saw it couple of more times - and don't wanna see it anymore.

Day 13 (2015.10.28)
Again the day begun terrible wrong. I'm not sure but I've noticed when there are less than 500 entries in Zoom pool - the field is much tougher. Although there are a lot of fish and really good regulars are showing up later but in the mornings winrate is just lower. On the other hand... how am I planning to crush 100NL if I can't beat 5NL at any time of day?

Anyways... I made some more bad river calls, dropped 3.5 buy-ins, got really angry at myself, took a break. Actually took a nap thinking how to fix this problem of mine. And in a dream haze I came up with idea. Woke up, picked up pen and paper, fired up some tables - and EVERY freaking time I went to the river - I wrote down my hand, board, action and my intention to call or bet. And I also marked the decision as a good or bad one. So I made 4 more bad ones before it finally sunk in. So since then I played almost 2k hands and made just one bad call on the river - and actually did much better.

WTSD dropped from 31% in first session to 25% total, W$SD is 51%, but River call efficiency is like 0.5 for the last several days. Still much work to do - but at least I got this tool to control myself and will practice more.

Hands: 3093 (total 38294) in 4 sessions of 5NL Zoom SH
Net: +4.28$ (total +81.26$) just +0.13$ by EV
Spin & Go's: 19 x0.5$ played with net +1$
Bankroll: 128.65$ (+20$ FFPs)

Hand #38 - bluffcatching too thin

I'm not sure if there is such thing as "thin bluffcatching"... if there is not - I've just invented it! So I 3bet with QQ and the guy calls. Basically I would say his range is 99+, AK plus any crap he wants. On a flop JTx and turn 9 - all pocket pairs are now ahead. Plus JT, KQ crap. I double barrel but then check/called river hoping he might shove AK, AQ and AJ. But I think even it's an overpair in a 3bet pot - I should find folds sometimes here when it's quite obvious I'm not getting 25% to win.

Hand #39 - another bet/call?!

It's UTG vs MP, I bet/bet/bet and face a raise on the river. Although I need less than 20% odds to call this and I can give him 10% bluffs - still what value hands he's shoving I'm planning to beat? Ze-ro.

Hand #40 - fold at last

And finally I begun to find folds in those spots. Called 3bet with AQ on UTG - might be a mistake as well, but I'm trying to widen up my 3bet-calling ranges IP lately because people are 3betting so wide. Of course BBvsUTG spot might be not the best but... Gotta try it out, right? Anyways, I hit my TPTK but he just barrels relentlessly - what do I expect to see there? A bluff? Or TT+? Exactly! So Jay folded, good for you, Jay.

Sport
After last week's breakdown I've decided not to do workouts on a basketball day. It was a mistake as well - I felt so heavy and had no energy to play yesterday. And I've also hurt my back a little, most likely because of that. So next week I'm going to try a shorter warm-up workout and see how it feels. Still experimenting... But - two hours of basketball still counts! It wasn't great but it was nice.

Music
Played just a little, had a tough day yesterday - not too much time for everything.

Day 14 (2015.10.29)
Sat down to play refreshed yesterday - and did my better. Had to pull out my pen and paper again at some point to keep my river calls under control. But overall - it was fine. Although I gotta admit - I was running hot too. WTSD is 30% and W$SD 42% - and still a good net result. Much better is the River call efficiency - 1.48!

Hands: 3892 (total 42186) in 5 sessions of 5NL Zoom SH
Net: +20.55$ (total +101.91$) and +23.65$ by EV
Spin & Go's: 21 x0.5$ played with net -4$
Bankroll: 143.85$ (+20$ FFPs)

Hand #41 - another bluffcatching

On of the rare hands I called the river bet. I'm pretty sure I shouldn't call down in spots like this. Board is dry, it's 3 way, etc. Two things pulled me to the Dark Side here. One - the Villain was somewhat agro with 2/3 times bet river and 4.0 aggression. And two - I thought he might not go for 3 streets of value with Jx hand. But he did - and I paid him off. Never again!

Hand #42 - paired river

And this is another hand I called the river - and it's the biggest loss yesterday. I had similar hand before but there were many hand combos that beat me. Here it's only Qx and sets. Still - the guy is a fish, there are lots of Qx in his range that he would play exactly this way - check/call, check/call, hit trips and donk-shove the river. But I called. Again - never again!

Sport
Didn't want to push my back yesterday after basketball so I went for a simple work-out. Gonna stick to it today as well.
Weight: 90.9 kg
Push ups: 30
Towel raised jump squats: 30
Mountain climbers: 90
Burpees: 11
Breast stroke: 40
Knee to elbow plank: 35
Chin ups: 0
Skipping rope: 0
Plank: 0 sec

Music
Haven't played a single note

Day 15 (2015.10.30)
I am so tilted right now. Just want to finish with this report and forget about poker till Tuesday. Those swings are just killing me. Start off again with dropping 3 buy-ins, then I went up to almost 4 buy-ins, and then ended up with 6 buy-ins down. Let me just repeat myself because I don't really fully understand it myself. In the last session over just 1000 hands I lost 47$. That's fuckin third of my bankroll! I'm so pissed off I can't even think about it straight. Can't even open those hands for review. Just... Fuck it...

Lost KK vs AT pre-flop all-in, of course some JJ vs AA and TT vs KK, lost AK vs 99 on AK9, hit trips vs full house, straight vs full house, you name it. Add couple of bluffs to that and... just... it's been a while I had such a severe tilt over nothing...

And the fun part is - I actually played good poker all day. At least according to stats. 24/19, 3bet 7.5%, WTSD 25%, River call eff 1.2. Goddammit!

Hands: 2838 (total 45024) in 2 sessions of 5NL Zoom SH
Net: -29.03$ (total +72.78$) just -22.60$ by EV
Spin & Go's: 9x0.5$ played with net -1$
Bankroll: 107.68$ (+25$ FFPs)

Well, at least on a bright side - I've reached my monthly goal of 45k hands played, raked the profits too, got FPPs worth 25$ and I don't have to play anymore this month so I can take a break, relax a little, review and analyze everything, make a sound plan for next month. Thanks guys for your support, will come back soon with reports and see you in the next month!

Good luck,
Jay's out.

Week 03
It's bit tough to really estimate the Week 3. It begun very shaky, then I thought I got it, and in the very end everything just fell down. I got to apologize for the last report breakdown, I even though about deleting it because it's fully of negative emotions and stuff - but then decided to keep it, just to remind myself that this happens and I'll have to learn to deal with it. I've been working a lot on my mental game recently and I think I'm having a progress here, but breakdowns happen and that's completely normal. On the other hand I've noticed that I was over it in like 3 hours and actually had to force myself not to sit down and play some more. I deserved a little break and I wanted to rest.

Anyways, in the long term it's nothing. I'm basically b/e in 5NL Zoom games, lost some in Spin & Go's and other tourneys, but reached some bonus FPPs. I've had a bad run on both Zoom games and Spin & Go's - both are under EV as well. But I'm looking forward for the next week and next month.

Here are results and stats, and bankroll challenge report is here.

Played at Zoom 5NL 6 max: 17967 hands
Net result: -0.20$ but +17.95$ by EV
Spin & Go's: 33/93 won/played, net: -4$
Current bankroll: 107.68$ (+10$ FPPs)

2015 October results
Time for a monthly report and plans for the next month. I've been playing and studying a lot since I started this blog and bankroll challenge. It might be the most poker-intense 3 weeks in my life. Went through NL2... again! Tried out NL5 too... Actually played decent amount of Spin & Go's. Paid a lot of attention to my mental game. Studied a lot too even though I didn't really plan it. Met people, old friends and new ones. Gotta mention my work-out regime as well, so far so good. And of course guitar - it feels nice to play it regularly too. All monthly results are here, under the spoiler.

2015 November plans
I think I can plan 20 working days for sure plus weekends. Going to focus on 5NL whole month, hopefully won't run too bad and won't have to move down to 2NL. With effective bankroll more than 130$ I think I'll give myself 10 buy-ins shot at 5NL and will drop back to 2NL if I'll have 80$ or less left in cashier. I'll keep the pace with 15k hands per week, so 60k hands total would be fine. Don't want to raise the bar too high because I also would like have to play at least 300 Spin & Go's with 0.5$ buy-in.

Since I'm doing fine automatically watching videos and reading books whenever I have time - I won't set a strict hours or goals for study and analysis. In the end of the month I'll check if I'm being lazy - then I'll deal with it. I will also keep post my hands with money give-away because I felt that it affects my decisions and analysis so in the end if the day - it helps. Will see how it goes.

Other goals - 20 workout days (including 4 basketball days so just 16 with home workouts) and 15 hours of guitar playing. I think this is reasonable enough for a full month and it will set a bar for the following months as well.

Day 16 (2015.11.03)
I gotta say I was a bit nervous. After the last Friday I think I recovered and moved on but still - felt pressure. Because when you lose 10 buy-ins one day - you can have the same result the other day, and that would've been stressful. But I started slowly with some Spin & Go's, went through some hands, then played Zoom 5NL - and it was fine. Nothing like a shark pool or a minefield. Just do your best and keep learning - that's the message.

Hands: 2986 (total 2986) in 4 sessions of 5NL Zoom SH
Net: +14.53$ (total +14.53$) and just +10.89$ by EV
Spin & Go's: 9 x0.5$ played with net +0.5$
Bankroll: 121.53$ (+25$ FFPs)

Hands #43 and #44 - identical calldowns

I think I should learn to fold those hands already... at least sometimes... but it feels so safe and the pot is so small

Hand #45 - is this a fold? Looks like it was played fine

Versus a min-3bet I think it's a fine call preflop, hit the nuts, just lead flop and turn, but the river was kinda funky. His preflop range might be shifted towards TT+, AT+, and now all those hands either split with me or beat me. And he bet rather big on the river too. I realized that this isn't a huge +EV call but decided to call anyways. Was this a fold?

Well, that's it for yesterday. Didn't workout and played a little music, going to start the month today really.

Jay out.

Hand 45

pot = 8.07 . If we assume that you can only split then you are getting --> 2.45/8 =30% for the full pot, so 60% for the split pot.

So you need approximately to be splitting 60% at least to call correctly.

Lets examine villain's betting range. AQ (6 combos), KQ(9), QJ(6), QQ (3), QT(9) you split. Cause QT is more unlikely i ll keep half combos of that. So you split 28.5 combos.

AK, AT, AJ = 6+6+4=16 combos you loose.

So total combos = 16+28 = 44 and 28/44 = 63.6

Assuming villain always bet with a straight your call is clearly correct. We could also consider that villain might have some times some random bluffs (i.e. 8d9d), or turning hands to bluff, which make the call even more attractive.

So I believe you played this hand fine as long as bet sizing isn't weighted as a big tell (and without a read I would def call)

*According to your range TT+,AT+ your call is not correct, but do you have any specific reason to give villain a so tight range? And if his preflop range is so tight, why don't you over bet flop and turn?

Well, he looked like a fish and min-3bet preflop from fish can be anything of course. He has those TT+, AT+ for sure, most of the range I think... plus weaker hands and crap too. That's why I assumed his range is shifted towards those hands. Another question is - is he ever bluffing in this spot? He's unknown and all we know - his preflop 3bet sizing basically.