888 Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: $4.06 (28.57/28.57/0.00/7 (V/P/3/H)
Hero (BB): $12.16
UTG: $10.00 (36.84/21.05/12.50/19 (V/P/3/H)
MP: $3.47 (36.36/9.09/6.25/33 (V/P/3/H)
CO: $11.58 (30.30/18.18/0.00/33 (V/P/3/H)
BTN: $12.27 (35.29/26.47/13.33/34 (V/P/3/H)
SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J♦:A♠:
fold, MP calls $0.10, CO raises to $0.45, BTN calls $0.45, fold, Hero raises to $1.33, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.88
Flop: ($3.26, 2 players) K♣:K♠:K♥:
Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn: ($3.26, 2 players) 8♦:
Hero ???
I guess it comes down to two questions:
What is villain's range here?
What part of that range will he fold?
How much equity do I really have?
Can I count to two?
I took a flying stab at villain's range and came up with this:
Board: K♣K♠K♥
Equity Win Tie
BU 57.59% 48.25% 9.34% { TT-55, ATs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KQo }
BB 42.41% 33.07% 9.34% { AsJd }
(136 combos)
He certainly won't fold his Kx hands 
but that is only 7 combos.
He might hold on to his AQ which beats me as well (12 combos)
If the A pairs, we split.
Even if he folds NONE of his Ax combos, I'm ahead of the AT and split w/ the AJ
I think he must fold any hand that does not include a pair or an A
I don't think he would check the flop with a pocket pair but I included all but (22 -- 44) in case he is the kind of guy who plays these passively.
I did not give him credit for AA -- first of all he would have re-raised the squeeze, and secondly, I hold an A (and I'm guessing so did CO)
Obv does not hold KK, and I think QQ and JJ would have bet the flop.
So the questions are:
bet/call shove turn, bet/shove, bet/fold or check/call or check/fold.
If "bet" is part of the choice, how much?
Cheers,
VS
