99 SB Vs UTG call, continuation bet in a bad flop??

That is a bit tricky. We have only 17 hands on villain but he doesn't seem to be a super fish? Limping is imo a very strange move here and I don't recommend limping ever. I think villains range is pocket pairs. Could he be so stupid to limp with QQ+?

Preflop is ok. On the flop I would cbet too. Villains raise doesn't make any sense in my opinion. He has a set of sixes or a bluff. I would call OTF.

Originally posted by la55i
That is a bit tricky. We have only 17 hands on villain but he doesn't seem to be a super fish? Limping is imo a very strange move here and I don't recommend limping ever. I think villains range is pocket pairs. Could he be so stupid to limp with QQ+?

Preflop is ok. On the flop I would cbet too. Villains raise doesn't make any sense in my opinion. He has a set of sixes or a bluff. I would call OTF.

You don't think he could have a Q or T? IMO you can't b/c this flop, probably not even x/c.

I would just check back the flop. There are two overs to your hand. So there aren´t enough worse hands that call, an no better hands which fold to you bet.
A simple check, and fold on the Turn, if he bets.

Originally posted by zoty79
I would just check back the flop.

Hero is oop (SB vs UTG).
Anyway check is the best move here. Always think WHY you bet - will you force stronger hand to fold, or would you get paid by a weaker than yours? I can't see a reason to bet here and you are just burning money. You have only bluff catcher that isn't so good. Flop screwed you, hits his range very well.

About the sizing preflop = x5, because you are out of position.

We have 17 hands on villain. Vpip 29 pfr 23, meaning out of 17 hands he have played 5 and 4 of those hands he raised preflop. Why would he limp a weak Tx or Qx from UTG? If we want to put Tx and Qx to villains range we would have to assume that he is a complete noob or limping was a missclick..

The board contains 2 overcards, neither hits villains range (in my opinion). The board is dry and we can rep overpairs and Qx hands easily. I think cbetting here is ok. For the same reason I think we can call villains small raise. What do you guys think villains range is here and why? I can't see him having anything else than lower pocket pairs, 66 and air.

Thanks guys, learning a lot from your way of thinking.

I just wanted to add something about villians range, I've seen people on this levels limping K2o, so QTs or even QTo, KQ, KT.

I read somewhere to don't infravalorate my opponents, I don't know, anyway,

THANK YOU ALL

, I'm learning the importance of which range you put your opponent and act depending on it, I'll pay more attention to that.

la55i,
It doesn't matter the stats or sample size. Board is not good for cbet with our hand. Even xc is a bit too much.

Originally posted by nitrol
la55i,
It doesn't matter the stats or sample size. Board is not good for cbet with our hand. Even xc is a bit too much.

Right. I need a holecard camera on the UTG to bet (or even check-call) on that flop. Even if I had a million hands on the dude. The stats are about as irrelevant as the whether in California.

So we are giving up in this hand where villain limp called pre? Seriously what do you think he is limping with? What makes the board so bad for cbet? He will fold a lot of his air and we get value from smaller pocket pairs. I just don't see this the same way you do. I might have a problem in my thinking here so I want you to open my eyes.

To begin with, I might take a free flop. I am not extremely interested in escalating the pot vs an UTG limper with a decent stack (300bb means he probably likes money more than he hates it, fish or not). But raising pre is not wrong, because we get 4% of the stacks in, nice for set mining, and it increases the chance of getting stacks in when we hit. (This is the reason to raise preflop, not blowing him away OOP postflop on totally missed boards.) But then when two overcards in a connected, not very high flop hits the board, then I shut down because I think it hits is range very well. (That answers the question about his range, I think he has a range that likes that flop.)

If he can play (postflop), he should in this spot call with as little as a gutshot, like with 8♦:7♦:, in order to float you (or he shouldn't limp-call pre). Many hands (like 9♦:8♦: ) have very nice potential. When you get floated, you simply have to give up. This is my rationale. I don't think the c-bet shows autoprofit because he'll not fold enough right away, and we have essentially no draws. When he calls, we have to fold a lot, including better hands than those he is possibly holding.

Added: We do not get value from his smaller pairs, not if he can play. He'll either fold or call, but if he calls, the equity and momentum shifts to him, not because of hands strength, but because of position and the threat of future bets. He is never calling with 44 here in order to lose this pot. (He'll bet when you check (which you must), and you can't call.)

That was well explained. Thank you!

Agree with YohanN7. The board not only hits villain's range better but even 1 of our 2 outs (9) competes a draw on that board.

I like the ISO preflop, and the bet/fold is fine on the flop.