QTs in Squeezed pot IP vs Reg

flop is no so wet, and we still have gutshot and two overs and backdoor flush draw.
so i would go for c bet 60-70%

What do you mean "board is notso wet"? This is the wettiest board the only wettier is with FD.
We should check here.

I'm not sure if that sqz is good or not, I might have just called. I think we don't get much folds if we bet OTF, sometimes flop hits villains cold calling range hard. There is also over pairs which won't fold. I prefer checking here.

The decision to squeeze should be influenced by what type of players are behind you. If passive - you can just call.
Though you can squeeze with your hand too.

What about a shove OTF? Think about it.. doesn't that yield more EV than checking or making a C-bet of 60-70%? You have a gut shut, backdoor flush draw and over cards.. I believe this gives you enough equity to put maximum pressure on your opponent since a re-raise OTF I would fold, a call OTF I would most often check if the turn was a meaningless card or club. Your opponent most probably doesn't have QQ+, AK+ so any other pair he knows that he cannot afford too much risk and if he has the goods (which is still highly debatable in terms of [is set mining and play fit-or-fold a good strategy]) OTF you still have 4 outs and the backdoor.

Maybe I am wrong but IMO right now, I want to steal the pot and get maximum fold equity.

We are up against reg postflop so I would cbet flop with the plan on showing the turn.

If you want to take less variance then x/f is fine too.

The worst option would be cbet and then shut down.

The problem with betting here is that on this board, your c-bet won't be getting a lot of credit, so the fold equity against made hands or other overcards isn't that high.

If MP regularly 4-bets all the high end of his range preflop, it could also mean our straight out could be tainted.
If he doesn't, there are plenty more overpairs in his range, so our overcards might not help.

If the plan to bet is just to see the turn card, and then decide, we can get it for free by checking.

In any case, if he's a tight reg, the board isn't too dangerous for us, but not for him as well, and he likely knows that.

Checking here also doesn't shrink your range, so your implied odds should be better if you hit on the turn. And you don't want to put money anyway if you don't.

Therefore, I think it's just a simple check.
If the board would have hit normal 3-bet / squeeze ranges some more, you may have been able to rep something strong enough here to get more fold equity against stronger hands. Don't think that's the case here.

Originally posted by Hesticus
What about a shove OTF? Think about it.. doesn't that yield more EV than checking or making a C-bet of 60-70%? You have a gut shut, backdoor flush draw and over cards.. I believe this gives you enough equity to put maximum pressure on your opponent since a re-raise OTF I would fold, a call OTF I would most often check if the turn was a meaningless card or club. Your opponent most probably doesn't have QQ+, AK+ so any other pair he knows that he cannot afford too much risk and if he has the goods (which is still highly debatable in terms of [is set mining and play fit-or-fold a good strategy]) OTF you still have 4 outs and the backdoor.

Maybe I am wrong but IMO right now, I want to steal the pot and get maximum fold equity.

An expensive move witg uncertain result. No need to invest.

Few Ax and Kx can call if we c-bet on that flop, that is a lot of FE. A 50% suffices. If he calls, he has a better hand than us, and we can check back (or not) on turn. There is no shame in barreling once and giving up/trying to catch a 9.

Thanks again guys!

I would go for a half pot bet on the flop, you excercise some fold equity, as it is a polarized bet, you could have smashed the flop as well as have nothing. If he calls you still have two overs, and draw possibilites, if he does call and it goes c/c on the turn, if he checks the river and you are unimproved a 3/4 river could well take the pot away from him.

I would have flatted pf, because the hand you have plays so well multiway, but i do understand you wanted to iso the fish!

I like to call pre more, I would cb flop 1/2, MP should fold hands like AK-AQ/KQs which is very good result for you.

Another thing about this hand; while the flop is wet, it almost surely didn't hit a reg MP. He should have overcards and a few overpairs and we block QQ and TT. A massive flop bet followed by a turn all in would be very hard for villain to call all the way if my range estimate is right on. I think this is much better than moving AI on the flop as was suggested. Don't know if it is better than the small c-bet though.

Why don't he have 98s, T9s, 56s? A lot of regs call with these cards against some players

Sure, but most regs don't. like getting in 12% of the stack preflop OOP with small suited connectors. It is a losing play in isolation, and should be done only for balancing reasons to make you harder to read (making the total range more profitable).

Most regs will have T9s-65s and even J9s-97s.

Originally posted by nitrol
Most regs will have T9s-65s and even J9s-97s.

A good reg will have just some of those 32 combos. Playing all and they leak money. Suited connectors simply aren't profitable to play for more than 5-10% of stacks preflop depending on circumstances. Now we are talking about 12% OOP. Those poor odds cannot be overcome, no matter how clever they are postflop.

Suited connectors are hands that inherently like raised pots, but hates reraised pots. The reason is that they get in just the right of money (3% of stacks) with a raise, but, in isolation, are unplayable in reraised pots unless stacks are very deep.

pre I like, flop I check all range here: you have only some combo of T9s, 87s, 76s of strong, he can have set you no

ez cbet,
overs that block his calling range and are good some of the time
bd fd
gutshot
no showdown value

TJ would be better, but this is pretty good