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flop decision?

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m1ha1l
Joined: 27.06.2013

Was that a bad decision, to raise on the flop? When he svove QQ+, I have 43% and I need 35%!

888 Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $4.10 (VPIP: 48.15, PFR: 7.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
Hero (CO): $11.37
BTN: $14.47 (VPIP: 21.05, PFR: 17.12, 3Bet Preflop: 6.21, Hands: 1,514)
SB: $20.12 (VPIP: 17.94, PFR: 9.87, 3Bet Preflop: 2.88, Hands: 227)
BB: $3.83 (VPIP: 48.31, PFR: 29.24, 3Bet Preflop: 1.03, Hands: 244)
UTG: $10.00 (VPIP: 24.39, PFR: 18.37, 3Bet Preflop: 10.13, Hands: 1,321)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A♦ Q♦

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN raises to $0.90, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players) 5♦ 7♥ 2♦
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.97, Hero raises to $2.41, BTN raises to $13.57 and is all-in, Hero calls $8.06 and is all-in

Turn: ($22.89, 2 players) 9♥

River: ($22.89, 2 players) 8♣

Spoiler

Hero shows A♦ Q♦ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 32%, Flop 46%, Turn 27%)
BTN shows K♣ K♠ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 68%, Flop 54%, Turn 73%)
BTN wins $21.75


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11 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I don't like the flop x/r, I would have just called. Are you sure you calculated the pot odds correctly? There is 5,33 on the pot, you have to call 8,06 more. 8,06/13,39=60%?


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kriko92
Joined: 16.11.2010

Originally posted by la55i
I don't like the flop x/r, I would have just called. Are you sure you calculated the pot odds correctly? There is 5,33 on the pot, you have to call 8,06 more. 8,06/13,39=60%?

You didn't include the shove, m1ha1l's calculations are correct.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by kriko92

Originally posted by la55i
I don't like the flop x/r, I would have just called. Are you sure you calculated the pot odds correctly? There is 5,33 on the pot, you have to call 8,06 more. 8,06/13,39=60%?

You didn't include the shove, m1ha1l's calculations are correct.

Oops. :)


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

It is okay to raise flop, but remember, the nuttier the draw is and the more outs you have, the less attractive the "bluff portion" of the raise is. The deeper the stacks, the more important this concept is. I'd rather bluff raise with J♦:T♦: than A♦:K♦: here. The button, by the way, makes the all too common mistake of "puttin ya on a draw" if you are balanced here. You should probably have like 3 combos of 77 and 1 combo (like J♦:T♦: ) for bluff. If you are looser or trickier (and have 55, 22 and some AA (the tricky part) in the range), bluff a little more.


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miloskrstic
Joined: 30.01.2012

A bad decisions. Opponent is played as it has QQ +. Cal $ 0.97 is the biggest loss that I allowed myself in this situation. It's too big stack to be risked. Someone with less money to raise stake.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by miloskrstic
A bad decisions. Opponent is played as it has QQ +. Cal $ 0.97 is the biggest loss that I allowed myself in this situation. It's too big stack to be risked. Someone with less money to raise stake.

He has QQ+ because he c-bet BU vs CO? Sure:f_biggrin:
(I order to live you must be willing tom die.)


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First of all, his range seems to be a lot wider than QQ+ in this spot -
He's not that nitty, and his 3bet range is a lot wider pre. Then, his c-bet continues with trying to rep a strong hand and also you just called a 3-bet OOP, so he probably realizes the chance of you having a big overpair are quite low. His range isn't that much different after that one.

Then the all-in. Well, You checked first. Giving you credit for hitting that board or having a large overpair when you didn't 4-bet OOP pre is difficult, so just thinking you have a lot of check-raise bluffs in your range makes sense.
You do have mostly bluffs in your range at this point from his perspective - you fold mid-low pairs pre and 4-bet monsters most of the time OOP, not too many other things left.

Therefore, his range doesn't change that much and contains a lot more than QQ+, even after that.
Probably doesn't matter as far as the result is concerned in this hand, but I still mention this because I think you weren't aware of the hand ranges you were representing here.

However, your odds are just better against any reasonable range than if it was just QQ+ in this spot, so that apparently very strange (to me) assumption doesn't seem to hurt you here.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I do not like the raise here. Prefer calling as A or Q may not be clear outs.


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iSoOwnYou
Joined: 27.11.2014

I'd c/c flop, c/c turn (unimproved)


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Originally posted by nitrol
I do not like the raise here. Prefer calling as A or Q may not be clear outs.

I (by a small margin) prefer calling too, but not for that reason. Having more clear outs in addition to the nut outs should tilt the decision towards calling, not towards bluffing. If so, for no other reason (there are) than that we risk overbluffing. Bluffing with, say, A♦:K♦:, A♦:Q♦:, A♦:J♦: and A♦:T♦: would be too much, and villains "puttin ya on a draw" becomes correct.


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jules97
Joined: 10.06.2012

flop call or x/r either is fine
doesn't matter
only thing that matters, is you want to do both and not always be doing one

once you x/r you can't ever fold, flip better yo


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