NL16 Squeeze 3bet push 100bbs

fold

your behind even versus 22, AKo's strong postflop

Hi I would fold this, although at first glance when you look down at AK and see some 'idiot' (which let's face it, we all peg 100bb shove merchants as) shove, you just want to snap it off, with a bit of reflection / analysis - it is a clear fold I'd say.

Even if he's doing this as wide as TT+ ; AQ you only have 49% equity; I think it's super unlikely he's doing this with AQ, and slightly unlikely he's doing it with TT.

TT+AQ+ you have 49% equity.
JJ+, AQ+ you have 50% equity
TT+, AK+ you have 40% equity
JJ+,AK+ you have 39% equity
JJ,QQ, AK+ (i.e. he's not doing this with AA or KK) you still only have 45% equity.

So unless he's a maniac and you've seen him do this with JT or 76 before, I'd fold!

Would you call with QQ or JJ? I'd say "probably not". Suppose your opponent knew your calling tendencies, and that it was only the two of you. He can profitably push all pocket pairs, with the bizarre result that you sometimes fold almost all hands that make you a huge favorite (he has 22, you fold QQ-22), but call with the hand with which you are a dog. Sure, you have AA/KK sometimes, but the dead money in the pot compensates for that little risk for the BB.

I think we can fold this. At NL2-NL5 3bet shove is usually a pretty shitty hand (lower pocket pairs, AJo etc..) But I doubt it is the same at NL16.

I'm never folding AK here against the bloody fish:f_drink:

Sure, he might be trying leveling you sometimes with AA, KK, but you will never know if you fold:)

There was a guy at a table today who declared - "I'm AI every hand" and did it. Built up nice stack though.

this is no random fish tho

Fold is right. We lose the opportunity to outplay villain postflop.