Missed draw bluff river

Originally posted by la55i

Ps. I'm a bit lost with my math. How often does villain have to be right if he decides to call my bluff?

He needs about 23%. If he had an overpair, huge mistake he did without proper info. It was risky. I'd raise MP pre and this dude on the flop to generate larger folding equity and continue bluffing on the turn as well on the river.

If we know that SB likes to squeeze we can 3bet preflop.
On flop we can raise nut draws and weak draws too.

Originally posted by Berezovaya

Originally posted by la55i

Ps. I'm a bit lost with my math. How often does villain have to be right if he decides to call my bluff?

He needs about 23%. If he had an overpair, huge mistake he did without proper info. It was risky. I'd raise MP pre and this dude on the flop to generate larger folding equity and continue bluffing on the turn as well on the river.

Thanks. My brain didn't work at the time. Now I got it.

You are essentially targeting 66/77/88/99/AK. This is 36 combos. He has JJ/QQ/KK/AA + to call (bluff catch) with. This is X combos. I think X < 72. Adjust the number 36 (weight the probabilities that he fires twice with the 36 combos you target) . Adjust the other number (does he check AA/KK OTR etc).

Oh man, this boils down to pure guesswork. I think I'd check to get to see his hand for sure, and take a note for next time:)

You have around 51% equity against a range of QQ+ on the flop so I'd be looking to raise and get it in there.

I don't think he's ever folding an overpair on the river btw. I also disagree that if you check back you lose the pot as often as you think. This villain is perfectly capable of squeezing with AJ etc.

Why are you even discussing overpairs on the river, he just doesn't have those. The question is whether he plays AK like that and whether he folds it on the river. If we're not sure, AQ is not the hand to bluff with because we have decent showdown value, bluff with something else.

Originally posted by kriko92
Why are you even discussing overpairs on the river, he just doesn't have those.

That's a bizarre claim to make. He 3bet preflop, bet two streets and then checked when the draws bricked out. It's a pretty standard line to take with an overpair.

I would be very very surprised to see JJ+ bet this small on flop/turn and then check river on that board (from nl5 reg-ish player). If we think he can show up with those then bluffing AQ makes no sense at all - he won't fold them.

I would put overpairs to his range. If I recall correctly, villain thought about his fold veeeery long. If he had A high or a busted draw I think he would have folded quicker. My bluff wasn't good but I think he folded a better hand here.

Originally posted by kriko92
I would be very very surprised to see JJ+ bet this small on flop/turn and then check river on that board (from nl5 reg-ish player). If we think he can show up with those then bluffing AQ makes no sense at all - he won't fold them.

I would be surprised if there aren't JJ+ in his squeeze range. Some have 88+