Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
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SB: $10 (100 bb)
BB: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
MP: $10.54 (105.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A
J
MP folds, Hero raises to $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.65) 3
A
Q
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, BTN raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.80
Turn: ($3.05) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2, Hero calls $2
River: ($7.05) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.60 and is all-in, Hero calls $6.55 and is all-in
Preflop: My default open. The BTN is relatively unknown, but looks like a reg so far. When he calls, I assume he has something like this:
Flop: Against his assumed preflop calling range, I have 74% of equity on this board, so I'm betting for value. Of course he will not call with his entire range, but I supose there are alot worse hands calling at least one street, like ATs, A9s, KQo, KQs, KJs, QTs, and maybe JTs and TT. When he decided to raise, I think he has this for value (#15):
...and this as a bluff (#10):
So, since the flop is dry and considering his preflop calling range, I think that when he raised, he has more value hands than bluff hands. Sometimes he will maybe even have a slowplayed AA or QQ. Raising two pairs and sets is probably not optimal on this kind of board, but also there are not many draws. Anyway, I need 26% equity to call and I have 34%, but given that I'm out of position and I won't realise my entire equity on later steets, folding would probably be an ok option. I decided to call and planned to check/fold most turns.
Turn: I hit two pairs and vs his assumed flop raising range, my equity increased to 38%. If we assume that he will continue betting with his entire range, I think I have to check/call now. I need 28% of equity to call.
River: Now some of his backdoor flushdraws came there and also KT came there, so I believe that the best option is to check/fold. Against the range I gave him on the flop/turn, now I have just 9% of equity and I need 33% to call. Overall, I think my check/call on this board and after all the action is a spew, even though I have two pairs.
BTN: 22/18/1,8/78 (VPIP/PFR/AF/H)
At what point did you decide that you were going to commit your stack?
VS